Summary of Lumentum FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum (NasdaqGS: LITE) - **Date of Conference**: December 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Optical and Photonic Technologies - **Current Market Dynamics**: - Unprecedented demand in AI and optical technologies - Capacity constraints across all product lines due to high demand exceeding supply [10][12][121] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Capacity Constraints**: - All product lines are currently capacity constrained, with demand exceeding supply [10] - Specific products like indium phosphide lasers and scale-across optics are particularly tight [10][11] - EML lasers are sold out for 2026 and largely booked through 2027, indicating strong demand [13] 2. **Pricing Dynamics**: - Pricing is expected to increase due to the seller's market, with longer-term contracts not offering discounts [18] - Larger customers are willing to commit to longer contracts, which helps secure supply [18] 3. **Customer Supply Allocation**: - Supply allocation is based on customer commitment and strategic importance, ensuring no favoritism among major clients [25] - The company aims to support all cloud customers fairly [25] 4. **Product Capacity Increase**: - A 40% capacity increase for EMLs is on track, with incremental improvements expected over the next quarters [26][30] - Multiple tools are being utilized to address capacity needs, rather than a single bottleneck [32][34] 5. **Market Trends**: - Silicon Photonics (SiPho) is expected to gain market share, but EMLs currently have better gross margins [39] - The transition to 1.6T technology is anticipated, with flexibility in capacity allocation between EML and SiPho lasers [46][50] 6. **Optical Switching (OCS)**: - OCS is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching around $100 million per quarter by December 2026 [70] - OCS is currently supplementing packet switching rather than cannibalizing it, with a growing interest from AI model companies [78] 7. **CPO Technology**: - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is expected to see significant adoption by 2027, with projections of 40%-50% of switches being CPO-based by 2028 [91] - The transition to scale-up architectures is anticipated but will require careful planning due to power consumption and capacity considerations [97] 8. **Optical Ports Growth**: - Estimated optical ports for 2026 are projected to be around 60-75 million, nearly doubling year-over-year [104][106] - The majority of these ports will be driven by hyperscalers, indicating strong demand in the data center market [116] 9. **Customer Relationships**: - The company is focusing on serving its three major customers effectively, as demand from these clients is high [120] - Capacity remains the primary constraint in meeting customer demand, with a need to ensure reliable production [121] 10. **Broad-Based Growth in Telco**: - The telco business is experiencing broad-based growth, driven by increased demand across various product lines [141] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in data center optics and related technologies [142] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautious about expanding its customer base due to current capacity constraints, focusing instead on existing relationships [121] - The supply chain for OCS is still developing, which may limit growth in the short term but is not expected to face the same constraints as laser technologies [82] - The overall market for optical technologies is expected to grow rapidly, with significant opportunities for Lumentum in both existing and new applications [142]

Summary of NVIDIA's Optical Interconnection Developments Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA (Ticker: NVDA US) - **Industry**: AI Networking and Optical Interconnection Key Points Industry Developments - NVIDIA is expected to incorporate CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) into its 2027 Rubin Ultra architecture, following Google's adoption of OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) for its TPU V7, which interconnects over 9,000 chips, surpassing NVIDIA's projected deployment of 576 dies in 2027 [1][2] - The transition to CPO for rack-to-rack interconnects is anticipated to enhance power consumption, latency, density, and cost efficiency compared to AOC (Active Optical Cable) [2] Product and Technology Insights - NVIDIA's scale-up optical solutions may arrive sooner than expected, with CPO being considered for the 576-die architecture starting in the second half of 2027 [2] - Compute trays and switch trays will continue to use PCB backplane connectivity, while rack-to-rack interconnects are likely to adopt CPO-based optical interconnects [2] - The scale-up CPO presents an incremental opportunity for the optical interconnect supply chain, with key beneficiaries including companies like LITE, Sumitomo, and Browave [3] Market Expectations - NVIDIA's scale-out CPO switch is projected to have deployment figures of 2,000, 20,000, and 35,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The anticipated demand for NVIDIA's OIO (Optical Interconnection) solution is expected to coincide with the Feynman architecture, driving demand for CW lasers, FAUs, and optical engines [4] Risks - Potential risks include deceleration in AI demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased competition within the industry [5] Rating and Performance Expectations - NVIDIA is rated as a "Buy," indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark by more than 15% [6] Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes that the CPO penetration rate may not be significant in the 1.6T generation due to factors such as maturity and technical reliability [4] - The supply chain for scale-up CPO is similar to that of scale-out CPO, indicating a consistent market structure [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding NVIDIA's advancements in optical interconnection technology and its implications for the industry.