更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Communications Technology Equity Research OFC Recap – Bandwidth Needs Scale Up by Order of Magnitude The massive expansion in bandwidth fueled by AI is driving both capacity expansion as well as innovations in bandwidth density. Roadmaps suggest an order of magnitude increase in optical bandwidth to support Scale Up networking. The key focus across the entire conference was the need for more bandwidth. Scale Up networking requires an order of magnitude more bandwidth vs. S ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the optical transceiver industry, particularly companies like Lumentum, Coherent, Ciena, and Corning, as well as the broader implications of optical and copper interconnect technologies [1][2][3][6][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment Shift**: The bearish outlook on optical transceiver companies has reversed, with a +50% average increase in share prices attributed to rising demand and confidence in supply chain capabilities [1]. 2. **Growth Drivers**: Key growth drivers include: - Nvidia's emphasis on scale-up optics for enhanced compute performance [1]. - Increased Total Addressable Market (TAM) expectations for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [1][28]. - Optical companies' improved visibility into component supply, enabling them to meet rising demand [1]. - A resurgence in growth expectations for telecom products, particularly in Data Center Interconnect (DCI) and ZR pluggables [1]. 3. **Valuation Divergence**: Despite robust growth prospects for optical companies, valuation multiples have diverged, making copper interconnect companies potentially more attractive in the short term [2]. 4. **Lumentum's Ambitious Targets**: Lumentum aims to double its revenue to $8-9 billion within 12-18 months, targeting a 40% operating margin, which could lead to earnings power of ~$25 per share [3][34][40]. 5. **CPO Market Growth**: The CPO market is expected to grow significantly, from <$500 million in 2027 to ~$10 billion by 2030, driven primarily by scale-up use cases [8][12]. 6. **OCS Market Inflection**: The OCS market forecast has increased from $1-2 billion to over $4 billion, indicating a broadening customer base beyond Google [18][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Copper Interconnects**: Investors are expected to focus on the adoption of optical solutions for intra-rack scaling and the potential for copper interconnects to recover due to better-than-expected demand [2][16]. 2. **Role of Contract Manufacturers**: The role of contract manufacturers in the CPO supply chain will be scrutinized, especially regarding their capabilities in silicon and indium phosphide fabs [15]. 3. **Ciena's New Solutions**: Ciena is focusing on new products like the Vesta 200 optical engine and is expected to balance pricing and gross margin outcomes amid supply constraints [44][45]. 4. **Corning's Portfolio**: Corning will showcase its optical portfolio and is expected to discuss its ability to price for innovation and capture upside in a supply-constrained environment [46]. 5. **Fabrinet's Demand Drivers**: Fabrinet's focus will be on demand drivers from key customers like Ciena and Nvidia, with expectations for significant revenue contributions from new builds [43]. Conclusion The optical transceiver industry is experiencing a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by robust growth expectations and strategic developments from key players. Companies like Lumentum and Coherent are positioned to capitalize on these trends, while the copper interconnect market may also see renewed interest due to valuation divergences. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely as they could impact investment strategies in the sector.

Core Insights - The inclusion of Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), and Vertiv (VRT) in the S&P 500 signifies a shift in the AI trade from speculative to a structural component of the U.S. economy [1][15] - This event is not routine; it represents a significant moment in the AI infrastructure boom, highlighting the importance of photonics and data center power infrastructure [1][15] Company Summaries Lumentum (LITE) - Lumentum specializes in lasers, transceivers, and optical components essential for data movement in AI data centers, described as the "plumbing" for hyperscale AI [5] - The company has seen a remarkable stock performance, with shares up 814% over the past year and 51.51% year-to-date, despite a recent 25% decline [6][7] - Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $665.5 million, a 65.5% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP operating margins expanding to 25.2% [7] Coherent (COHR) - Coherent, a peer of Lumentum, produces silicon carbide materials and optical networking products that are critical for the AI economy [8] - The stock has increased by 262.67% over the past year and 27.80% year-to-date, despite a recent 15% pullback [9] - The Datacenter and Communications segment generated $1.208 billion in revenue last quarter, up 34% year-over-year, now representing 72% of total revenue [10] Vertiv (VRT) - Vertiv provides power management systems and cooling infrastructure necessary for data centers, playing a crucial role in the AI buildout [11] - The stock has risen 195.20% over the past year and 49.27% year-to-date, with a record backlog of $15.0 billion, up 109% year-over-year [12][13] - For full year 2026, Vertiv expects net sales between $13.25 billion and $13.75 billion, indicating significant growth potential [13] Market Impact - The S&P 500 inclusion is a structural buying event, with over $7 trillion in assets benchmarked to the index, necessitating purchases of LITE, COHR, and VRT by passive funds [3][4] - This rebalancing is one of the most AI-focused in history, indicating the deep integration of AI infrastructure into the U.S. economy [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Hardware & Networking** sector, specifically the **Optical** segment, highlighting companies such as **Coherent**, **Lumentum**, **Fabrinet**, **Ciena**, and **Corning** [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capex Growth**: Total capital expenditures (capex) from the top 5 U.S. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are projected to increase from approximately **$450 billion in 2025** to **$850 billion in 2027**, indicating a **CAGR of +37%** [7]. - **Transceiver Attach Rate**: The transceiver attach rate per XPU is expected to rise significantly, from an initial expectation of **1-to-1** to **2-to-1 or higher** on larger clusters, potentially reaching **5-to-1** on even larger deployments [10]. - **Datacom Market Expansion**: The total datacom market is forecasted to grow at a **20%+ CAGR**, increasing from **$17 billion in 2025** to **$46 billion in 2030**. The **800G+ segment** is expected to grow even faster at **40%+ CAGR**, reaching **$44 billion** [15]. - **CPO Market Growth**: The CPO market is anticipated to expand from approximately **$500 million in 2027** to **$10 billion in 2030**, driven by scale-up use cases [18]. Company-Specific Insights Coherent - **Revenue Breakdown**: Datacom contributes about **55%** of revenue, while Telecom & DCI accounts for **20%**. The company is positioned to benefit from a shift to **6-inch InP wafers** and a doubling of InP capacity [29]. - **Investment Thesis**: Expected revenue CAGR of **20%+**, gross margin of **~42%**, and operating margin of **24%+** by CY27, with an EPS target of **$9-$10** [29]. Lumentum - **Revenue Breakdown**: Datacom represents **50%** of revenue, with Telecom & DCI at **45%**. The company is set to benefit from the ramp-up of **100G and 200G EMLs** [31]. - **Investment Thesis**: Projected revenue CAGR of **65%+**, gross margin of **45%+**, and operating margin of **35%+** by CY27, with an EPS target of **$20+** [31]. Fabrinet - **Revenue Breakdown**: Datacom accounts for **25%** of revenue, while Telecom & DCI makes up **50%**. The company has recently entered the **HPC market**, contributing **10%** of revenue [33]. - **Investment Thesis**: Expected revenue CAGR of **30%+**, gross margin of **12.5%+**, and operating margin of **11%+** by CY27, with an EPS target of **$20+** [33]. Ciena - **Market Position**: Ciena is a leader in optical systems for Telecom & DCI markets and plans to enter the datacom market [35]. - **Investment Thesis**: Anticipated revenue CAGR of **30%+**, gross margin of **44.5%**, and operating margin of **24%+** by CY27, with an EPS target of **~$12** [35]. Corning - **Revenue Breakdown**: Approximately **40%** of revenue comes from optical fiber and connectors. The company is well-positioned for revenue growth due to strong investments in data centers [37]. - **Investment Thesis**: Expected revenue CAGR in the mid- to high-teens, gross margin of **~40%**, and operating margin of **~24%** by CY27, with an EPS target of **-$5** [37]. Additional Important Insights - **Supplier Landscape**: The market has a vast list of suppliers, particularly from Asia, but few are vertically integrated across design and manufacturing [24]. - **Co-opetition Dynamics**: Companies like Coherent and Lumentum engage in co-opetition, supplying each other while also competing in various segments [27]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the industry dynamics, company-specific forecasts, and broader market trends.

Core Insights - Carillon Tower Advisers reported that small-cap stocks had marginal gains in Q4 2025, with the Russell 2000 Growth Index returning 13.01% and the Russell 2000 Value Index gaining 12.58% [1] - The firm anticipates a favorable year ahead for equity markets, highlighting potential opportunities in sectors such as Cyclicals, Healthcare, Information Technology, Financials, and Consumer spending as they approach 2026 [1] Company Insights - Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) closed at $219.96 per share on February 17, 2026, with a one-month return of 9.18% and a 12-month increase of 154.64%, giving it a market capitalization of $41.23 billion [2] - Coherent Corp. experienced a rise in shares due to strong earnings results and a positive outlook, driven by demand for transceivers used in AI data centers and telecommunications [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a transition to products that enable faster throughput speeds, with previous manufacturing capacity constraints easing [3] Hedge Fund Activity - Coherent Corp. was held by 78 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 66 in the previous quarter [4] - While Coherent Corp. shows potential as an investment, the company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, and certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

COMPANY OVERVIEW 2 February 2, 2026 1 Disclaimer This presentation and the accompanying oral presentation contain "forward-looking" statements that are based on management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this presentation, including information concerning our business plans and objectives, potential growth opportunities, competitive position, industry enviro ...

Core Insights - Sanmina Corporation (SANM) is focusing on advancing high-speed network infrastructure through its fiber expertise, providing reliable and scalable solutions for telecom, data center, and enterprise markets [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - Sanmina's fiber portfolio includes fiber optic cables, transceivers, assemblies, connectors, and active optical cables, delivering high bandwidth, low latency, and reliable performance [2] - The company also offers passive components, optical sub-assemblies, and ruggedized solutions for demanding applications, along with optical line cards, WDM components, and fiber panels [2] Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - Sanmina collaborates with Nokia Corporation (NOK) to produce fiber-optic network equipment and optical modules in the U.S., supporting broadband expansion programs like BEAD [3] - The company develops customized fiber solutions for challenging environments, making it a trusted partner for network operators upgrading their fiber infrastructure [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Grand View Research, the global fiber optics market is projected to grow to approximately $17.95 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.6% [4] - Sanmina's strengths in innovation, engineering, and global manufacturing position it to capitalize on the increasing demand for high-speed fiber connectivity [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Sanmina faces competition from Corning Incorporated (GLW) and Amphenol Corporation (APH), with Corning focusing on high-bandwidth optical connections in AI data centers [5] - Amphenol has acquired CommScope's Connectivity and Cable Solutions business to enhance its fiber optic offerings and is expanding its product range for harsh environments [6] Group 5: Financial Performance - Sanmina's shares have increased by 110.8%, outperforming the Electronics - Manufacturing Services industry's growth of 86% [7] - The company's shares currently trade at 17.41 times forward 12-month earnings, which is lower than the industry average [9] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have remained static at $9.64 and $11.46, respectively [10]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is poised for significant transformation driven by robust demand from various end markets, including hyperscale automation, robotics, healthcare, energy, materials, financials, and cybersecurity over the next five years [1] Company Summaries Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) - APLD is a U.S. designer and operator of high-performance data centers specifically for AI and blockchain workloads, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5][12] - The global AI market is projected to reach $500 billion by 2027, indicating strong long-term growth potential for APLD [5] - APLD's data centers are designed to meet the high power density and cooling requirements of AI applications, which positions the company favorably as demand from hyperscalers increases [6] - The company has secured multi-year leases at its Ellendale campus, expanding from 250 MW to 400 MW, with anticipated lease revenue of approximately $11 billion over 15 years [7] - APLD has reduced its build timelines from 24 months to 12-14 months and is currently developing multiple campuses with 700 MW under construction [9] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 30.4% and earnings growth rate of 61.3% for the current year, with significant upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [12] Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) - LITE specializes in optical and photonic technologies for telecommunications and data centers, holding a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [17] - The company is focused on developing photonic solutions for AI applications, particularly in data centers, with offerings that include high-speed transceivers and lasers [15] - LITE has seen a surge in demand due to its collaboration with NVIDIA Corp. in developing silicon photonics for networking switches [16] - The expected revenue growth rate for LITE is 56% and earnings growth rate is over 100% for the current year, with positive revisions in earnings estimates noted over the last 60 days [17]

Core Insights - Susquehanna initiated coverage of Fabrinet (FN) with a Positive rating and a price target of $550, highlighting its benefits from the transceiver market in data centers and opportunities in optical networking and AI server contract manufacturing [1] - Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Rockwell Automation (ROK) with an In Line rating and a price target of $440, emphasizing the multi-industrials' leverage to strong underlying cycles and expected market outperformance in 2026 [1] - Macquarie initiated coverage of Pony AI (PONY) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $29, noting its leadership in robotaxi commercialization in China [1] - Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of SiTime (SITM) with a Buy rating and a price target of $420, recognizing it as a leading provider of silicon-based precision timing solutions [1] Company Summaries - **Fabrinet (FN)**: Positive rating with a $550 price target; benefits from data center transceivers and optical networking opportunities [1] - **Rockwell Automation (ROK)**: In Line rating with a $440 price target; multi-industrials expected to outperform in 2026 [1] - **Pony AI (PONY)**: Outperform rating with a $29 price target; forefront of robotaxi commercialization in China [1] - **SiTime (SITM)**: Buy rating with a $420 price target; leading provider of silicon-based precision timing solutions [1] - **Macom (MTSI)**: Neutral rating initiated [1] - **Honeywell (HON)** and **GE Vernova (GEV)**: Outperform ratings initiated [1] - **RealReal (REAL)**: Outperform rating initiated; resale market viewed as a significant emerging trend in retail [1]

Summary of Lumentum's 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum (NasdaqGS:LITE) - **Industry**: Optical and semiconductor technology Key Points Leadership Transition - Michael Hurlston has been CEO for less than a year, taking over during a period of significant change and growth in the company [4][2] - Initial forecasts provided to Hurlston were significantly understated, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the company [4][5] Business Segments - **Transceiver Business**: - Currently generating approximately $500 million annually, with aspirations to reach $1 billion [11] - Margins are currently below mid-30s%, with a long-term corporate margin target of 42% [11][12] - Challenges include competition from larger players and the need for improved manufacturing processes [11][16] - **EMLs (Electro-absorption Modulated Lasers)**: - Strong demand with a 40% capacity increase expected over the next three quarters [18][19] - The company is sold out for 2026, indicating robust long-term agreements with customers [18][19] - **Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)**: - Expected revenue ramp-up in the second half of 2026, with multiple customer engagements beyond the leading partner [31][32] - The market is seeing a shift towards optical scale-up, with increasing confidence in demand [35][36] - **Optical Circuit Switches (OCS)**: - Significant growth potential with a projected revenue increase from $10 million to $100 million within the year [47] - Manufacturing capacity is the primary limitation, with ongoing efforts to scale production [49] Market Dynamics - The optical industry is experiencing unprecedented demand, surpassing previous cycles, particularly in semiconductor-like scales [5][28] - Supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist through at least 2027, necessitating further investment in manufacturing capabilities [24][25] Competitive Landscape - Lumentum's MEMS-based OCS technology is positioned favorably against competitors using Liquid Crystal solutions, emphasizing reliability and performance [42][53] - The company is optimistic about differentiating its solutions in a competitive market, particularly against major players like Cisco and Broadcom [38][39] Component Business - Traditional telecom components are seeing increased demand driven by major customers transitioning to new technologies [55][58] - The scale-across opportunity is particularly strong, driven by the need for distributed data center infrastructure [60][61] Conclusion - Lumentum is positioned for significant growth across multiple segments, with a focus on improving margins and scaling production to meet high demand. The leadership transition has set a positive tone for future performance, with strong customer commitments and a clear strategy for navigating competitive challenges.