The Robinhood stock price has rebounded nearly 23% since its February 5 low near $71. On the surface, this looks like a strong recovery for HOOD. The company also just posted its best financial year on record. But the bigger picture tells a different story. Weak crypto activity, fading money flows, and rising technical risks suggest this rebound may not last. For now, downside pressure remains the dominant force. Earnings Strength and Crypto Drag Are Pulling in Opposite Directions Robinhood delivered a ...

Robin Hood fourth quarter earnings, they are just not crossing the wire. Let's get you those numbers. I see uh Q4 EPS of 66 cents.I don't see a comp for that yet. Q4 net revenue though, let's look at the top line. 1.28% billion. The street was closer to 1.35% billion.Uh transactionbased revenue looks like it also comes in a bit light versus consensus. 776 million. Analysts had been expecting more like 791.6% 6 million.I'm just looking for crypto revenue. There it is. Q4 crypto revenue 221 million.Uh consens ...

Robinhood reported record quarterly revenue on Tuesday — but the crypto side of business weighed down on the company’s results and stock price. Overall, total revenue was up 27% year-over-year for the last quarter of 2025, surging to $1.28 billion. For the entire year, revenue hit a record $4.5 billion. But crypto trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Transaction revenues on the whole rose thanks to options and stock trading. Profits for the quarter also slid to $605 million, or 66 c ...

Core Viewpoint - Cboe Global Markets reported strong fourth-quarter results, driven by increased market volatility that boosted options trading volumes, despite a slight decline in total options market share [7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent months have seen a surge in market volatility due to uncertain trade policies and heightened geopolitical tensions, prompting traders to increase bets and hedge positions [7]. - Exchanges across Wall Street, including CME Group, Nasdaq, and Intercontinental Exchange, have reported strong quarterly results attributed to higher trading volumes [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - Cboe's net revenue from its options trading arm increased by 34% to $433 million, with total average daily volume in options rising by 24% [4][7]. - The adjusted profit was reported at $3.06 per share, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $2.94, while revenue reached a record $671.1 million, exceeding expectations of approximately $660 million [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is streamlining its operations to concentrate on high-growth areas such as prediction markets and cryptocurrency, in response to increasing competition for market share [5][7]. - Cboe is exploring a new product that would utilize an options structure for all-or-none payouts, aiming to compete with emerging prediction market platforms [5][7]. - The exchange plans to exit its businesses in Australia and Canada, following the previous decision to wind down its Japanese equities business [5][7].

Key Takeaways Robinhood's transaction-based revenue estimate is $809.9M, up 20.5% year over year.HOOD's options transaction revenue is expected at $315.3M, implying 42% growth in Q4.Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue is estimated to fall 19.8%, while expenses stay elevated.Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD) transaction-based revenues (comprising more than 60% of total net revenues) are expected to have been decent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company is scheduled to announce quarterly and full-year 2025 nu ...

The crypto and options-focused brokerage plunged in sympathy with cryptocurrencies.Shares of new-aged online brokerage Robinhood Markets (HOOD 10.21%) fell hard on Monday, down 8.7% as of 1:00 p.m. EDT.There wasn't any company-specific news today, but the online brokerage was down in line with the weekend decline in Bitcoin (OTC: BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, which trade 24/7. Robinhood has a higher-than-average percentage of its customers trading cryptocurrencies compared to other assets, and its users ...

Core Insights - Prediction markets are positioned as a significant growth opportunity for Robinhood, following its success in crypto and stock trading, which allowed it to outperform the S&P 500 in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Prediction Markets and Growth Potential - Robinhood launched prediction markets in October 2024, initially for the U.S. election, and has since expanded to include sports and general YES/NO events [2] - The prediction market model differs from traditional sports betting, as it involves peer-to-peer predictions rather than betting against a sportsbook [3] - The influx of capital into prediction markets is expected to drive Robinhood's growth in 2026, with CEO Vlad Tenev noting rapid growth in this segment heading into Q4 [5] Group 2: Customer Engagement and Market Dynamics - The prediction market feature is anticipated to attract new customers, particularly during the football season, with potential for cross-selling into stocks, options, and crypto [6] - Robinhood's unique position as an all-in-one investing platform allows users to engage in stocks, options, crypto, and prediction markets, setting it apart from competitors [7] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Since the introduction of prediction market contracts for football in August 2025, the number of events traded surged to 2.3 billion in Q3 [8] - In October 2025, Robinhood processed 2.5 billion prediction market contract trades, indicating a threefold sequential growth compared to Q3 [9] - The brokerage firm reported a doubling of revenue year over year in Q3, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 driven by prediction markets and increasing demand for sports betting [10]

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets experienced a significant decline in share price, dropping over 9% following disappointing operational updates and trading metrics for November [1][5]. Trading Performance - Equity trading volumes for Robinhood fell by 37% month-over-month in November, totaling $201.5 billion, although this figure showed a year-over-year increase of the same percentage [2]. - Options contracts traded also saw a decline, with over 193 million contracts representing a 28% decrease month-over-month, but a 24% increase year-over-year [4]. Cryptocurrency Trading - The company's cryptocurrency trading volumes decreased significantly, totaling $28.6 billion in November, which is a 12% decline from the previous month and a 19% decline from November 2024 [4]. Market Context - October was noted as an unusually strong month for Robinhood, making the subsequent declines more pronounced and challenging for the company [6]. - The company is actively expanding, recently announcing the acquisition of two brokerages in Indonesia, indicating ongoing growth ambitions despite current trading challenges [6].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) experienced a significant decline in trading volumes across various asset classes in November, leading to an 8.3% drop in share price during Thursday afternoon trading [4]. Trading Volumes - The company reported a month-over-month decline in equity trading volumes by 37% [4]. - Options trading volumes also saw a substantial decrease of 28% [4]. - Crypto trading volumes were lower as well, although specific figures were not detailed [4].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood stock has seen a significant increase of 225% year to date but is currently undergoing a correction, having dropped approximately 20% from its peak in October [1] Business Overview - Robinhood operates a commission-free investing platform popular among younger investors, allowing trading in stocks, options, futures, and cryptocurrencies [1] - The company signed an agreement with Kalshi in August to introduce sports prediction markets, creating a new revenue stream that has generated interest on Wall Street [2] Revenue Composition - The majority of Robinhood's revenue is derived from clients engaging in high-risk trading practices, which are historically unsustainable [3] - In Q3, Robinhood reported record transaction-based revenue of $730 million, with $572 million coming from cryptocurrency ($268 million) and options trading ($304 million) [4] Cryptocurrency Revenue Volatility - Robinhood's cryptocurrency revenue has shown extreme volatility, soaring by 4,560% year-over-year in Q2 2021 but plummeting by 75% a year later [5] - In Q4 2024, crypto revenue peaked at $368 million but fell by over 50% by Q2 2025, with further declines expected due to downtrends in popular cryptocurrencies [6] Options Trading Risks - Options trading is characterized as a high-risk practice, with revenue typically increasing during market uptrends and declining sharply during downturns [7] - The current high levels of the S&P 500 have contributed to record options revenue for Robinhood, but a market downturn could negatively impact financial results [8] Prediction Markets - The prediction market segment, while growing, currently represents a small portion of Robinhood's overall business, generating about $115 million in annualized revenue, or 2.5% of the projected $4.5 billion total revenue for 2025 [11] - The prediction market revenue has more than doubled in three months, indicating rapid growth potential in the $20 billion U.S. sports betting industry [12] Valuation Concerns - Robinhood's stock is trading at a high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 27.7, significantly above its historical average of 10.9 since going public [13] - To justify its current valuation, Robinhood would need to generate substantial new revenue quickly; otherwise, a market revaluation could lead to a potential decline of up to 60% [15] - The partnership with Kalshi may not significantly impact Robinhood's finances in the short term, given the disparity in market capitalizations [16]