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新国都(300130)2025年半年报点评:短期商户拓新压制业绩 跨境流水增长加速
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 02:53
Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the first half of the year is under short-term pressure due to the impact of domestic acquiring merchant expansion suppressing fee rates, while overseas business is progressing smoothly with accelerated growth in cross-border payment volume and significant revenue growth in high-end overseas markets [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, adjusting the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 589 million, 747 million, and 909 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.04, 1.32, and 1.60 yuan. The target price is raised to 38.40 yuan based on a 37x PE for 2025, considering growth in cross-border payment and overseas equipment business [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit of 275 million yuan, down 38.61% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 826 million yuan, up 3.93% year-on-year, while net profit was 119 million yuan, down 47.77% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the decrease in income and gross margin from the acquiring business, with revenue from acquiring and value-added services at 945 million yuan, down 12.86% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 27.24%, down 15.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The company's acquiring transaction volume in the first half of 2025 was 721.8 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a significant decline in the acquiring fee rate to 0.131%, down from 0.150% in the first half of 2024, mainly due to increased efforts in new merchant expansion [3]. - In terms of cross-border payments, the company has successfully integrated with major e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Etsy, Lazada, Shopee, and TikTok, with rapid growth in the number of cross-border payment merchants and transaction amounts, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 169% and 272% respectively in Q2 [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in high-end overseas markets for equipment, with nearly 200 million yuan in revenue from overseas high-end markets, growing over 80% year-on-year. Additionally, the company has successfully launched an AI merchant review agent, enhancing review efficiency and user experience [3].