拟港股上市，推进国际化战略。公司审议通过了《关于公司发行H 股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司 主板上市的议案》《关于公司发行H 股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市方案的议案》。截至 目前，公司已经取得卢森堡PI 牌照、香港MSO 牌照、美国MSB 牌照，具备了同时开展跨境支付和境外 本地收单业务的牌照条件。同时，公司旗下跨境支付品牌PayKKa 已推出B2B 跨境贸易收款、B2C 跨境 电商收款、独立站全球收单、境外本地收单等一系列支付服务产品。 事件：公司发布2025 年中报，收入15.27 亿元，同比减少3.17%；归母净利润2.75 亿元，同比减少 38.61%；扣非后的净利润2.42 亿元，同比减少38.90%。 同时，拾贰区还积极拓展AI Agent 产品在支付领域的功能应用，推出商户审核AI Agent，大大提升了审 核效率和用户体验。 海外市场表现持续向好。2025 年上半年，嘉联支付累计处理交易流水约7218 亿元，与去年同期相比基 本持平，实现营业收入9.49 亿元。公司电子支付设备业务板块实现营业收入5.44 亿元。其中海外市场实 现销售收入5.33 亿元，同比增长22.02%。欧美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the first half of the year is under short-term pressure due to the impact of domestic acquiring merchant expansion suppressing fee rates, while overseas business is progressing smoothly with accelerated growth in cross-border payment volume and significant revenue growth in high-end overseas markets [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, adjusting the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 589 million, 747 million, and 909 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.04, 1.32, and 1.60 yuan. The target price is raised to 38.40 yuan based on a 37x PE for 2025, considering growth in cross-border payment and overseas equipment business [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit of 275 million yuan, down 38.61% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 826 million yuan, up 3.93% year-on-year, while net profit was 119 million yuan, down 47.77% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the decrease in income and gross margin from the acquiring business, with revenue from acquiring and value-added services at 945 million yuan, down 12.86% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 27.24%, down 15.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The company's acquiring transaction volume in the first half of 2025 was 721.8 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a significant decline in the acquiring fee rate to 0.131%, down from 0.150% in the first half of 2024, mainly due to increased efforts in new merchant expansion [3]. - In terms of cross-border payments, the company has successfully integrated with major e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Etsy, Lazada, Shopee, and TikTok, with rapid growth in the number of cross-border payment merchants and transaction amounts, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 169% and 272% respectively in Q2 [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in high-end overseas markets for equipment, with nearly 200 million yuan in revenue from overseas high-end markets, growing over 80% year-on-year. Additionally, the company has successfully launched an AI merchant review agent, enhancing review efficiency and user experience [3].

Core Viewpoint - New Guodu plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its entry into the "A+H" dual capital market amid increasing competition and shrinking profit margins in the payment industry [1] Company Overview - New Guodu, established in 2001 and listed on A-shares in 2010, is a global payment technology service provider based in Shenzhen, China, with a comprehensive business scope including payment services, digital service scenarios, electronic payment devices, and auditing services [2] Financial Performance - As of August 29, 2025, New Guodu's stock price was 32.07 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 18.1 billion CNY [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.527 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit of 275 million CNY, down 38.61% [3] - The operating cash flow was 138 million CNY, a decline of 46.46%, and basic earnings per share were 0.49 CNY, down 39.51% [3] - The subsidiary, Jialian Payment, reported revenue of 949 million CNY and a net profit of 88.5 million CNY, both showing a year-on-year decline [3] Market Challenges - The decline in profits is attributed to reduced income and gross margins from acquiring and value-added services, alongside increased investments in cross-border payments and AI, which pressure short-term profitability [3] - The payment industry faces challenges due to market saturation, intense competition, and regulatory scrutiny, leading to a general decline in performance among acquiring institutions [3][4] Growth Opportunities - New Guodu aims to find a "second growth curve" in overseas markets as domestic growth slows [4] - The electronic payment device segment generated revenue of 544 million CNY in the first half of 2025, with overseas sales reaching 533 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.02% [4] - The company has obtained various licenses for cross-border payments, enabling it to offer services in multiple sectors across the EU [4] Internationalization Challenges - The complexity of overseas regulatory environments poses challenges for New Guodu, requiring significant investment in compliance and local operations [5] - The increasing competition from non-licensed companies in the cross-border payment space adds to the challenges faced by traditional payment firms [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.527 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 3.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million yuan, down 38.61% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 826 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, marking the first positive growth in nearly two years [1]. - The payment business is developing steadily, with a focus on exploring cross-border payment opportunities, leading to significant growth in merchant numbers and transaction amounts in the cross-border payment sector [2]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion of smart devices, with overseas revenue from electronic payment devices reaching 544 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.02% [3]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 580 million yuan, 689 million yuan, and 805 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 147.8%, 18.8%, and 16.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, a decline of 3.17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 275 million yuan, down 38.61% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 826 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.93% [1]. - The company maintained good cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expenses changing by -41.9%, -8.2%, and +3.6% respectively in H1 2025 [1]. Business Development - The payment business processed approximately 721.8 billion yuan in transaction volume in H1 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year, with revenue of 949 million yuan [2]. - The company is enhancing its cross-border payment brand PayKKa, focusing on resource investment, product development, and building banking channels [2]. - The number of merchants and transaction amounts in the cross-border payment business saw significant growth, with Q2 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 169% and 272% respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovering offline payment industry in 2025, with projected net profits of 580 million yuan in 2025, 689 million yuan in 2026, and 805 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 31, 26, and 23 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - New Guodu plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and diversify financing channels amid increasing competition in the domestic payment market [2][5][6] Company Strategy - The primary goal of the H-share issuance is to deepen the company's global strategy, accelerate overseas business expansion, and enhance international market competitiveness [5][7] - New Guodu's business includes payment services, digital scene services, electronic payment products, and auditing services, with its subsidiary, Jialian Payment, being a well-known acquirer in China [5][6] Market Context - The domestic third-party payment market is becoming saturated, leading to increased competition and declining profit margins, prompting many payment institutions to seek growth opportunities overseas [9][11] - New Guodu's recent half-year report shows a revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit of 275 million yuan, down 38.61% [9][10] Performance Challenges - The decline in net profit is attributed to decreased revenue and gross margins from acquiring and value-added services, influenced by strategies to expand new merchants [9][10] - The core payment business faces stagnation, increased cost pressures, and significant profit shrinkage, indicating a lack of new growth engines [10][11] International Expansion - New Guodu's international strategy has shown promise, with significant growth in its cross-border payment brand PayKKa, and a 22.02% year-on-year increase in overseas sales of electronic payment devices [10][11] - However, the contribution of overseas sales to overall revenue remains limited, and new business expansions are still in exploratory stages [10][11] Challenges in Overseas Market - Expanding into overseas markets presents challenges such as building local teams, navigating complex regulatory environments, and enhancing global resource allocation capabilities [11][12] - Analysts emphasize that success in international markets requires strong operational capabilities beyond just capital operations [12][13] Market Sentiment - Following the announcement of the H-share issuance and half-year report, New Guodu's stock price remained stable around 33 yuan, indicating market confidence in the company's strategic move [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully expanded its cross-border payment services, obtaining multiple licenses and launching innovative products to support local payment solutions in various regions, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative. Group 1 - The company has acquired licenses including the Luxembourg PI license, Hong Kong MSO license, and US MSB license [1] - The cross-border payment brand PayKKa has launched local acquiring and B2B foreign trade collection products, supporting local payment accounts in regions such as the EU and Southeast Asia [1] - The company is actively responding to national initiatives like the Belt and Road, enhancing its cross-border payment business coverage in a wider range of countries and regions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to market benchmarks [5]. Core Insights - Stablecoins are anticipated to drive the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), with significant growth in its global payment share from approximately 2% in December 2015 to an estimated 4% by December 2024, alongside a rise in cross-border payment volume from 12 trillion yuan to 64 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The global cross-border payment market is projected to reach approximately 200 trillion USD by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 6% from 2024 to 2032, indicating substantial potential for RMB payment growth [2][10]. - Third-party payment institutions are expected to benefit from the increasing RMB cross-border payment scale, with the retail cross-border payment market projected to grow from 39.9 trillion USD in 2024 to 64.5 trillion USD by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - Stablecoins are positioned as a key driver for RMB internationalization, leveraging decentralized architecture and offshore circulation capabilities to enhance the RMB's global usage [1][8]. - The RMB's global payment share is expected to rise significantly, supported by upgrades in cross-border clearing systems and the expansion of offshore markets [2][16]. Section 2: Global Cross-Border Payment Market - The global cross-border payment market is on a stable growth trajectory, with transaction volumes projected to reach 194.6 trillion USD by 2024, growing at a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2019 to 2024 [2][10]. - By 2032, the market is expected to expand to 320 trillion USD, with a sustained CAGR of 6.4% [2][10]. Section 3: Opportunities for Third-Party Payment Institutions - The report highlights the significant role of third-party payment institutions in the retail cross-border payment market, where B2B payments dominate with a 79% share [3][17]. - The integration of stablecoins is expected to enhance the global expansion of RMB cross-border payment infrastructure and diversify application scenarios, leading to increased revenue potential for third-party payment companies [3][23]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the A-share market, including Xinguodu, Lakala, and Newland, as well as Hong Kong-listed companies like Lianlian Digital and Yika [3][27].