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传统旺季来临 PP价格继续下跌空间有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-01 23:16
Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, but the performance of polypropylene (PP) is average due to limited demand improvement and increased supply pressure [1][2] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite the arrival of the peak season, the characteristics of downstream demand are not evident, with the operating rates in the PP products industry showing only marginal improvement [1] - The operating rate for PP has rebounded to around 87%, the highest since May, following a significant drop to approximately 80% during the traditional demand off-season [1] - The overall social inventory of PP is around 800,000 tons, remaining at historically high levels despite a recent decline [2] Group 2: Profitability and Market Conditions - The profitability of oil-based PP has improved this year, with losses reduced to within 500 yuan/ton, while coal-based PP profits remain robust at around 800 yuan/ton despite recent coal price rebounds [2] - The increase in PP supply was anticipated, but the demand improvement has not met expectations, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - The current profit margins for oil-based and coal-based PP are at their highest levels in nearly three years, indicating a lack of effective support from the cost side [2]