Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices showing weakness due to high production and inventory levels, despite some improvements in downstream demand and cost support [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soda ash futures opened at 1184.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 1185.00 CNY and a minimum of 1157.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.85% [1]. - The overall market performance for soda ash is characterized by weak price movements, indicating a bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High production and inventory levels continue to dominate the soda ash market, leading to a supply surplus that exerts downward pressure on prices [1][2]. - Downstream demand remains stable, with glass manufacturers showing consistent purchasing behavior, particularly for low-priced soda ash [1]. - Recent fluctuations in production rates have led to a slight decrease in daily output and operational rates, contributing to a modest inventory reduction of 55,600 tons on Monday [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the soda ash market is likely to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on selling during price rebounds as the primary strategy [2]. - The long-term outlook indicates that soda ash may serve as a short position target due to ongoing supply expansion, with the 05 contract being the preferred choice for short-selling strategies [1]. - Attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies and market reactions to news, particularly regarding environmental regulations and supply elasticity [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the ferroalloy market experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend, with prices rising first and then falling. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. In summer, entering the peak season of coal - power, coal prices stabilized and rose, reversing the expectation of continuous decline in coal - power prices, which led to a sharp increase in ferroalloy prices. However, after the price increase, production profit increased significantly. Due to the over - capacity in the expansion cycle, production recovered rapidly. With demand stable or having a weakening expectation, supply growth exceeded demand, causing the market price to decline later [3]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, for manganese - silicon, the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. Manganese ore has no bottleneck, and the manganese - silicon smelting capacity is severely over - capacity. The probability of successful industry joint price protection in the capacity expansion cycle is low. For silicon - iron, the price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. It is expected to be difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly. Overall, the ferroalloy trend in the fourth quarter is limited, and prices may fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Manganese - silicon: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. As of September 26, the main contract rose from 5638 yuan/ton to 6414 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5848 yuan/ton, with a 3.65% increase. In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand of manganese - silicon changed from surplus to shortage in the first half of the year and then back to surplus in the third quarter. The cost increase due to the peak season of coal - power in July led to a price increase, with a slight adjustment in August and overall fluctuations in September [5]. - Silicon - iron: As of September 26, the main contract of silicon - iron futures rose 5.91% to 5660 yuan/ton in the third quarter. The price decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline in coal - power prices. After June, the supply reduction of thermal coal and the recovery of thermal - power demand led to a price rebound. In August, the market worried about the end of the peak - season benefits of coal - power, causing the price to decline. In September, coal prices stabilized, and the silicon - iron trend was highly correlated with coal prices [10]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - There were various policy events in 2025, including changes in manganese ore supply due to natural disasters and shipping disruptions, anti - dumping measures imposed by some countries on Chinese steel products, and local policies in China to promote the high - quality development of the ferroalloy industry, such as the implementation plan in Ningxia and the ecological environmental protection inspection [17][19][21]. Manganese - Silicon Supply - In 2025, the manganese - silicon industry reduced production in the early stage, and production increased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. In August, the national comprehensive start - up rate was 44.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. The output was 909,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94%. The production profit was poor in general, with a short - term profit in July and a decline in August and September. The manganese - silicon industry has serious over - capacity, and the northern region has high new - capacity investment this year. Manganese ore changed from shortage to surplus, with imports reaching a record high in August. The inventory of manganese ore is currently low but is expected to increase in supply, and it has no support for the manganese - silicon price [23][25][32]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - Manganese - silicon demand is mainly in the steel - making industry, and the demand was stable in 2025 but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Although the production of steel products such as rebar increased in August, the terminal real - estate market is poor, and there is a possibility of reducing rebar production to relieve the pressure of over - supply, which is negative for manganese - silicon demand [39][40]. Silicon - Iron Production Profit - From January to May 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of silicon - iron decreased. The profit was good before March, but turned negative in April and May. After June, the profit was generally poor, with a slight recovery in July and a decline again in August, and a slight repair in September [44]. Silicon - Iron Output - Due to the overall price increase in the third quarter, the output of silicon - iron continued to rise. In August, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.43%, an increase of 5.61% compared with July. The output was 493,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.43% [47]. Silicon - Iron Demand - In 2025, the export of silicon - iron decreased year - on - year. In the third quarter, with the increase in domestic prices, export profit decreased, and exports were relatively weak. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for silicon - iron, recovered. The production of steel products increased in 2025, but the production of crude steel decreased. The price of silicon - iron is expected to fluctuate around energy prices in the fourth quarter [50][53][54]. Summary and Outlook - The ferroalloy market in the third quarter experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the manganese - silicon price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the silicon - iron price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. Overall, the ferroalloy trend is limited, and prices may fluctuate [56][57].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, but the performance of polypropylene (PP) is average due to limited demand improvement and increased supply pressure [1][2] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite the arrival of the peak season, the characteristics of downstream demand are not evident, with the operating rates in the PP products industry showing only marginal improvement [1] - The operating rate for PP has rebounded to around 87%, the highest since May, following a significant drop to approximately 80% during the traditional demand off-season [1] - The overall social inventory of PP is around 800,000 tons, remaining at historically high levels despite a recent decline [2] Group 2: Profitability and Market Conditions - The profitability of oil-based PP has improved this year, with losses reduced to within 500 yuan/ton, while coal-based PP profits remain robust at around 800 yuan/ton despite recent coal price rebounds [2] - The increase in PP supply was anticipated, but the demand improvement has not met expectations, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - The current profit margins for oil-based and coal-based PP are at their highest levels in nearly three years, indicating a lack of effective support from the cost side [2]