11月20日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，纯碱期货主力合约开盘报1184.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，纯碱主力最高触及1185.00元，下方探低1157.00元，跌幅达2.85%附近。 新湖期货分析称，当前现货报价相对坚挺。近期个别装置波动，导致日产及开工率有所下滑。需求上， 下游需求整体维持平稳态势，玻璃厂刚需补库，低价碱成交较好。此外碱厂陆续发货，带动近期库存去 化：周一口径纯碱厂库库存去化5.56万吨，库存加速去化。整体思路上：基于供应过剩格局对于价格的 极大压制，且位于产能扩张周期，因此纯碱长期来看仍可作为空配标的，以反弹沽空策略为主，以05合 约为首选。此外，需关注国内宏观政策动向以及因供应弹性较大，对于消息面反应较为强烈，持续关注 消息面影响（如反内卷、环保政策等）。 正信期货指出，纯碱产量及库存延续高位，下游低价刚需采购为主，在总体供大于求下，基本面边际略 改善难以提供驱动，短期区间偏弱运行，中期趋势上仍是以逢反弹卖保为主。 目前来看，纯碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于纯碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 银河期货表示，纯碱产量及库存延续高位，部分轻碱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the ferroalloy market experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend, with prices rising first and then falling. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. In summer, entering the peak season of coal - power, coal prices stabilized and rose, reversing the expectation of continuous decline in coal - power prices, which led to a sharp increase in ferroalloy prices. However, after the price increase, production profit increased significantly. Due to the over - capacity in the expansion cycle, production recovered rapidly. With demand stable or having a weakening expectation, supply growth exceeded demand, causing the market price to decline later [3]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, for manganese - silicon, the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. Manganese ore has no bottleneck, and the manganese - silicon smelting capacity is severely over - capacity. The probability of successful industry joint price protection in the capacity expansion cycle is low. For silicon - iron, the price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. It is expected to be difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly. Overall, the ferroalloy trend in the fourth quarter is limited, and prices may fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Manganese - silicon: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. As of September 26, the main contract rose from 5638 yuan/ton to 6414 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5848 yuan/ton, with a 3.65% increase. In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand of manganese - silicon changed from surplus to shortage in the first half of the year and then back to surplus in the third quarter. The cost increase due to the peak season of coal - power in July led to a price increase, with a slight adjustment in August and overall fluctuations in September [5]. - Silicon - iron: As of September 26, the main contract of silicon - iron futures rose 5.91% to 5660 yuan/ton in the third quarter. The price decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline in coal - power prices. After June, the supply reduction of thermal coal and the recovery of thermal - power demand led to a price rebound. In August, the market worried about the end of the peak - season benefits of coal - power, causing the price to decline. In September, coal prices stabilized, and the silicon - iron trend was highly correlated with coal prices [10]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - There were various policy events in 2025, including changes in manganese ore supply due to natural disasters and shipping disruptions, anti - dumping measures imposed by some countries on Chinese steel products, and local policies in China to promote the high - quality development of the ferroalloy industry, such as the implementation plan in Ningxia and the ecological environmental protection inspection [17][19][21]. Manganese - Silicon Supply - In 2025, the manganese - silicon industry reduced production in the early stage, and production increased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. In August, the national comprehensive start - up rate was 44.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. The output was 909,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94%. The production profit was poor in general, with a short - term profit in July and a decline in August and September. The manganese - silicon industry has serious over - capacity, and the northern region has high new - capacity investment this year. Manganese ore changed from shortage to surplus, with imports reaching a record high in August. The inventory of manganese ore is currently low but is expected to increase in supply, and it has no support for the manganese - silicon price [23][25][32]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - Manganese - silicon demand is mainly in the steel - making industry, and the demand was stable in 2025 but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Although the production of steel products such as rebar increased in August, the terminal real - estate market is poor, and there is a possibility of reducing rebar production to relieve the pressure of over - supply, which is negative for manganese - silicon demand [39][40]. Silicon - Iron Production Profit - From January to May 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of silicon - iron decreased. The profit was good before March, but turned negative in April and May. After June, the profit was generally poor, with a slight recovery in July and a decline again in August, and a slight repair in September [44]. Silicon - Iron Output - Due to the overall price increase in the third quarter, the output of silicon - iron continued to rise. In August, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.43%, an increase of 5.61% compared with July. The output was 493,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.43% [47]. Silicon - Iron Demand - In 2025, the export of silicon - iron decreased year - on - year. In the third quarter, with the increase in domestic prices, export profit decreased, and exports were relatively weak. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for silicon - iron, recovered. The production of steel products increased in 2025, but the production of crude steel decreased. The price of silicon - iron is expected to fluctuate around energy prices in the fourth quarter [50][53][54]. Summary and Outlook - The ferroalloy market in the third quarter experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the manganese - silicon price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the silicon - iron price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. Overall, the ferroalloy trend is limited, and prices may fluctuate [56][57].

自2022年进入产能扩张周期之后，PP利润开始明显压缩，尤其是油制PP长期处于亏损状态，甚至一度 亏损2000元／吨。不过，今年PP亏损情况明显改善，油制PP一度扭亏为盈。目前，油制PP虽然依然处 于亏损状态，但是亏损有限，在500元／吨以内。煤制PP利润丰厚，最高一度达到1500元／吨。近期， 煤炭价格反弹，煤制PP利润被压缩，但是依然在800元／吨附近。 油制及煤制PP占比较大，合计超过80%。目前，油制及煤制PP利润处于近3年高位水平，成本端缺乏有 效支撑。 受需求不及预期、供应压力明显增加影响，PP创出阶段性新低。不过，后期PP需求有望逐渐改善，"金 九银十"需求旺季仍值得期待，预计PP价格继续向下空间有限。（作者单位：齐盛期货） "金九银十"传统旺季来临，PP表现一般，不仅需求端改善有限，供应端压力也明显增加。在此背景下， PP期货主力2601合约加速下跌，9月1日盘中跌破7000元／吨关口，最低跌至6921元／吨，创下半年以 来新低。 尽管旺季来临，但是下游旺季特征不明显。PP制品行业开工率虽然较前期有所反弹，但是边际改善有 限，多数领域开工率依然维持低位，其中BOPP、PP管材等甚至出现下滑迹象 ...