Group 1: Earnings Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 per share, and down from $1.79 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.64% [1] - UPS posted revenues of $21.22 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.77%, but down from $21.82 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UPS shares have lost about 19.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.60 on $21 billion in revenues, and $7.05 on $87.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that UPS's stock may underperform in the near future based on current estimates [5][6]

Group 1: Stock Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $101.14, with a gain of +2.26% from the previous trading session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - The stock has decreased by 1.49% over the past month, underperforming the Transportation sector's gain of 4.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - UPS is set to announce its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.85% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $20.85 billion, down 4.43% from the previous year [2] Group 3: Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $7.05 per share and revenue of $87.34 billion, indicating changes of -8.68% and -4.09% respectively from last year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Confidence - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for UPS are important as they reflect changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in performance [4] - Empirical research shows a direct correlation between estimate revisions and stock price performance [5] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks UPS at 4 (Sell), with a recent 0.4% decrease in the EPS estimate [6] - UPS has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.02, aligning with its industry's Forward P/E of 14.02 [7] Group 6: PEG Ratio - UPS has a PEG ratio of 1.9, compared to the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry's average PEG ratio of 1.85 [8] Group 7: Industry Ranking - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 199, placing it in the bottom 20% of over 250 industries [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for United Parcel Service (UPS) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - UPS is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $20.85 billion, which is a decline of 4.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.47% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for UPS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.00% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [9][10]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, UPS exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.49 per share against an estimate of $1.44, resulting in a surprise of +3.47% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, UPS has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - UPS does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, but other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is currently viewed as relatively overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price to earnings (P/E) of 13.15X, which exceeds the industry average of 12.72X and is higher than rival FedEx Corporation (FDX) [1][10]. Financial Performance - UPS has maintained or increased its dividend each year since going public in 1999, currently offering a dividend yield of 6.6%, surpassing the industry average of 4.8% [5][6]. - The company has increased its dividend five times in the past five years, indicating strong year-over-year dividend growth potential [6]. - UPS's board approved a $5 billion share repurchase program in 2023, with $500 million worth of shares bought in 2024 and $1 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - UPS generated $6.3 billion in free cash flow in 2024, with $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [8]. Market Conditions - UPS is facing revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation, which negatively impact consumer sentiment and growth expectations [12]. - The decline in online sales in the U.S. and soft global manufacturing activity are contributing to reduced package shipment volumes [13]. - Labor costs are high due to agreements with the Teamsters union, which limits bottom-line growth [13]. - UPS anticipates a second-quarter adjusted operating margin of 9.3% and revenues of $21 billion, with a projected 9% decline in average daily volume for the U.S. Domestic segment [14]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, UPS shares have underperformed, declining 26.8%, compared to a 24% drop in the industry and a 3.9% decline in rival GXO Logistics [15][18]. - Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for UPS's second and third quarters of 2025 have decreased, indicating a negative trend in earnings expectations [19][20].

Enterprise Products Partners might be a better income play. Therefore, Enterprise and its peers are generally well-insulated from inflation and other macro headwinds. Moreover, the Trump Administration's promotion of domestic fossil fuels to reduce America's dependence on foreign fuel could generate strong tailwinds for Enterprise and its peers over the next few years. From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect UPS's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 1% as its EPS grows at a CAGR ...