Group 1 - United Parcel Service (UPS) has experienced a challenging year, with shares dropping approximately 30% due to significant declines in U.S. revenue and parcel volumes, and management has provided limited guidance for the future [1][6] - The company is actively restructuring its logistics network to reduce costs and focus on profitability, with developments in artificial intelligence (AI) expected to aid in this turnaround [2][4] - UPS operates one of the most complex logistics networks globally, and improving efficiency through AI could lead to margin expansion by lowering transportation and sorting costs [3][4] Group 2 - UPS is already utilizing algorithms like ORION for route optimization, and newer AI technologies such as computer vision and accurate demand forecasting could enhance package sorting and route utilization [5][8] - The integration of AI and automation is expected to significantly reduce costs and improve efficiency, which may help regain investor confidence [6][8] - UPS is exploring partnerships with robotics companies, such as Figure AI, to implement humanoid robots in warehouses, which could further streamline operations [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating potential impacts on its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on October 28, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.31, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 25.6%. Revenues are projected to be $20.84 billion, down 6.3% from the previous year [3][2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.63% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for UPS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.04%. This suggests a bearish outlook from analysts [11]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, UPS was expected to post earnings of $1.56 per share but delivered $1.55, resulting in a surprise of -0.64%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [12][13]. Conclusion - UPS does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings. Investors are advised to consider other factors when making decisions regarding this stock ahead of its earnings release [16].

Core Viewpoint - UPS is facing challenges in clearing imported packages due to rapidly changing customs regulations, leading to potential disposal of parcels that cannot be cleared [1][11]. Group 1: Customs Challenges - The company has reported difficulties in navigating the customs process due to ongoing trade disputes and shifting import rules [1][11]. - New procedures have been implemented for handling parcels that are stranded at UPS hubs due to missing information or incomplete paperwork [2][11]. - Approximately 90% of packages that arrive on the first day of entry are cleared, but the recent changes have led to an increase in parcels unable to clear customs [5][8]. Group 2: Company Response - UPS has stated that if necessary information cannot be obtained, packages may either be returned to the original shipper at their expense or disposed of in compliance with U.S. customs regulations [3][11]. - The company is making multiple attempts to obtain the required information to clear delayed shipments and is committed to serving customers despite regulatory challenges [6][8]. - UPS continues to work on bridging the understanding gap related to new requirements and aims to expedite package delivery while complying with federal customs regulations [5][8].

Core Insights - The freight market is experiencing a prolonged downturn, influenced by trade policy pressures and consumer hesitancy, impacting truck manufacturers and carriers of all sizes [3][4] - Amazon partners, such as Epic Lightning Fast Service and Accelore Group, are significantly affected, with Accelore Group laying off 214 workers in Texas [3] - NFI Interactive Logistics is also reducing its workforce, laying off 79 workers at a facility in Lebanon, Indiana, due to closure [4][6] - Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are facing declining demand, with cumulative orders for the September 2024 to August 2025 season down by 15% [4] Company-Specific Developments - Epic Lightning Fast Service is permanently shutting down its operations in San Diego, resulting in the layoff of 116 workers by the end of October [6] - The company had 59 power units and 93 drivers as of late July, and operated Amazon-branded vehicles for package delivery [6]

Core Viewpoint - UPS stock has experienced a significant decline, falling over 30% in the year and more than 60% from its pandemic-era highs, raising concerns among investors about the company's future performance [2][4]. Company Performance - UPS's stock has dropped approximately 31% since the beginning of the year and over 60% from early 2022 pandemic highs [2]. - The company has faced challenges such as a decrease in package deliveries and a strategic decision to prune lower-margin business segments [4][5]. - Average daily volume in the U.S. fell by over 7% in the second quarter, with UPS's operating margin at 7%, a stark contrast to the double-digit margins seen during the pandemic [6]. Strategic Decisions - UPS terminated its acquisition of Mexican company Estafeta, which was aimed at strengthening its presence in Mexico, leading to a downgrade in its price target by an analyst [3]. - The company plans to cut Amazon package volume by approximately 50% by June 2026 due to low margins associated with Amazon deliveries, which accounted for about 11.8% of UPS's revenue in 2024 [7]. Cost Management Initiatives - UPS is implementing a $3.5 billion cost-reduction plan, which includes closing numerous facilities and reducing its workforce by about 20,000 jobs, aimed at improving margins and restoring shareholder confidence [10]. - The consolidated operating margin improved from 7.7% to 8.6% in the second quarter, with a projection of 9% for the next quarter [10]. Future Outlook - Despite current setbacks, UPS maintains a strong competitive position with one of the densest global delivery networks, delivering an average of 22.4 million packages per day [8]. - The company is focusing on replacing lower-margin Amazon volume with higher-margin segments such as healthcare and small-business freight, which are expected to provide more stability in earnings [11]. - There is potential for UPS to recover in the long term, although the path to stronger earnings may involve several more challenging quarters [12].

Financial Performance - FedEx reported quarterly earnings of $3.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 per share, and up from $3.6 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +4.93% [1] - The company posted revenues of $22.24 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.15%, compared to $21.58 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, FedEx has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - FedEx shares have declined approximately 19.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.2% [3] - The company's earnings outlook will be crucial for future stock performance, with current consensus EPS estimates at $4.04 for the coming quarter and $18.34 for the current fiscal year [4][7] Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which FedEx belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact FedEx's stock performance [5]

Company Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $85.20, reflecting a +1.4% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.13% [1] - Over the past month, UPS shares have declined by 2.88%, while the Transportation sector has decreased by 0.76% and the S&P 500 has increased by 2.71% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Analysts expect UPS to report earnings of $1.34 per share, representing a year-over-year decline of 23.86% [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $20.86 billion, indicating a 6.21% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Annual Forecast - The Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $6.51 per share and revenue of $87.51 billion for the year, reflecting changes of -15.67% and -3.91% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Stock Price Correlation - Recent changes in analyst estimates for UPS are correlated with near-term stock prices, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [3][4] Zacks Rank and Performance - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having shifted 0.24% downward over the past month [5] - The Zacks Rank system has shown that 1 stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] Valuation Metrics - UPS has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.91, which is in line with the industry average [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.55, matching the industry average, indicating similar expected earnings growth trajectories [7] Industry Ranking - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, which includes UPS, ranks in the bottom 7% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 per share, and down from $1.79 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.64% [1] - UPS posted revenues of $21.22 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.77%, but down from $21.82 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UPS shares have lost about 19.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.60 on $21 billion in revenues, and $7.05 on $87.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that UPS's stock may underperform in the near future based on current estimates [5][6]

Group 1: Stock Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $101.14, with a gain of +2.26% from the previous trading session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - The stock has decreased by 1.49% over the past month, underperforming the Transportation sector's gain of 4.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - UPS is set to announce its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.85% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $20.85 billion, down 4.43% from the previous year [2] Group 3: Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $7.05 per share and revenue of $87.34 billion, indicating changes of -8.68% and -4.09% respectively from last year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Confidence - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for UPS are important as they reflect changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in performance [4] - Empirical research shows a direct correlation between estimate revisions and stock price performance [5] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks UPS at 4 (Sell), with a recent 0.4% decrease in the EPS estimate [6] - UPS has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.02, aligning with its industry's Forward P/E of 14.02 [7] Group 6: PEG Ratio - UPS has a PEG ratio of 1.9, compared to the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry's average PEG ratio of 1.85 [8] Group 7: Industry Ranking - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 199, placing it in the bottom 20% of over 250 industries [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for United Parcel Service (UPS) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - UPS is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $20.85 billion, which is a decline of 4.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.47% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for UPS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.00% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [9][10]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, UPS exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.49 per share against an estimate of $1.44, resulting in a surprise of +3.47% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, UPS has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - UPS does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, but other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].