Investors with a lot of money to spend have taken a bearish stance on United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS).And retail traders should know.We noticed this today when the trades showed up on publicly available options history that we track here at Benzinga.Whether these are institutions or just wealthy individuals, we don't know. But when something this big happens with UPS, it often means somebody knows something is about to happen.So how do we know what these investors just did? Today, Benzinga's options scanne ...

Shippers generally feel surcharges are fair when projected demand abruptly exceeds capacity because carriers do a lot of seasonal hiring and training, lease extra aircraft and other equipment, and take on other expenditures to ensure continuity of operations. In 2013, a spike in demand combined with blizzards severely impacted parcel carriers’ on-time performance, upsetting retailers and their customers, and prompting the move to demand surcharges the following year.“[At] the height of the Covid time period ...

Key Takeaways ZTO's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised lower, signaling weak broker confidence.ZTO cut its 2025 parcel volume forecast to 38.8-40.1 billion from the prior 40.8-42.2 billion.ZTO shares have lost 18.7% over the past year, underperforming the broader trucking industry.Shares of ZTO Express (ZTO)  have had an unimpressive run in a year. Shares of this company have plunged 18.7% in the same period, underperforming the transportation-services industry’s14.5% decline.ZTO Stock's One-Year ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx shares increased by over 5% in premarket trading following the announcement of stronger-than-expected profit and revenue for its fiscal first quarter [1] Company Summary - FedEx reported a fiscal first quarter that exceeded market expectations in terms of both profit and revenue [1]

By Rashika Singh and Shivansh Tiwary (Reuters) - Shares of FedEx rose as much as 2% in early trade on Friday, after the parcel giant's first-quarter results surprised Wall Street, driven by strong domestic deliveries and cost-cutting measures that offset a tariff-induced decline in international volumes. The company, seen as a bellwether for global trade alongside rival United Parcel Service, has leaned on efficiency measures and tighter cost controls, including parking planes, closing facilities and mer ...

Group 1 - Investors have taken a bearish stance on United Parcel Service (UPS), with significant options trading activity indicating potential insider knowledge of upcoming events [1][2] - The overall sentiment among large traders is 30% bullish and 55% bearish, with a total of $297,265 in put options and $1,742,203 in call options identified [2] - The price target for UPS is being eyed within a range of $70.0 to $160.0 based on the analysis of volume and open interest in options contracts [3][4] Group 2 - The mean open interest for UPS options trades is 2,236.12, with a total volume of 6,229.00, indicating active trading [4] - Recent options trades include a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with notable trades involving calls and puts at various strike prices [10] - UPS operates as the world's largest parcel delivery company, managing a fleet of over 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, delivering approximately 22 million packages daily [11] Group 3 - Analysts have provided mixed ratings for UPS, with an average target price of $87.0; one analyst downgraded the rating to Underperform with a target of $83, while another maintained a Neutral rating with a target of $91 [13][14] - The current stock price of UPS is $84.79, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17%, with upcoming earnings expected in 41 days [16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **transportation industry**, specifically the impact of **US tariffs** on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Laden vessels** from China to the USA decreased by **4% sequentially** and **19% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating a softening trend that may persist through mid-August based on data from the **Port of Los Angeles** [1][5]. - The **tariff-related impacts** are still unfolding, and the upcoming weeks are critical for understanding shipper reactions as the peak season approaches [1][6]. - **Weekly data** can be volatile, but analyzing it over multiple weeks can reveal trends related to tariffs [3][9]. Freight Flow Data - **Container rates** have dropped by **8% sequentially** and are under significant pressure, down **67% YoY** [5][29]. - **Rail intermodal volumes** on the West Coast increased by **1% YoY**, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive growth, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous disruptions [5][40]. - Planned **TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units)** into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to drop by **3%** in the near term, with a potential **20% increase** two weeks later [5][33]. Future Projections - The **2025 trade scenario** suggests that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty, which could lead to an underwhelming peak season in terms of volume and revenue [6]. - If a **re-stock event** occurs in 2026, it could significantly benefit freight flows and margins, especially if consumer spending remains strong during the holiday season [6]. Stock Recommendations - **Transport stocks** may face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase [8]. - **Freight forwarders** like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [8]. - **Parcel companies** such as **UPS** and **FDX** are also positioned to gain from increased demand for air freight during peak seasons [8]. Additional Insights - The **Logistics Managers Index** indicates that upstream inventories are expanding, while downstream inventories are contracting, reflecting a complex inventory landscape [69]. - The **Supply Chain Congestion Tracker** remains stable, suggesting fluidity in logistics comparable to pre-COVID levels [48][50]. - The **Big Three ports** (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) experienced a **5% YoY decline** in volumes but a **21% sequential increase** from May to June, indicating a recovery trend [52]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is navigating a challenging environment influenced by tariffs, consumer behavior, and inventory management. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the impact on freight flows and stock performance in the sector [1][6][8].

Core Insights - FedEx reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, beating both earnings and revenue estimates, but provided a dismal outlook, leading to a more than 5% drop in shares after market close [1][3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for FedEx were $6.07, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93 and improving from $5.41 a year ago [3] - Revenues increased by 0.5% year over year to $22.2 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.7 billion [3] Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, FedEx expects revenues to be flat or increase by up to 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $3.40 and $4.00 [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a growth of 0.21%, while the estimate for earnings per share is $4.05 [4] - FedEx did not provide earnings and revenue forecasts for fiscal 2026 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly with China [5] Cost Management - FedEx achieved its $4 billion cost-cutting goal and aims to trim an additional $1 billion in the upcoming fiscal year [5] ETF Impact - The sluggish trading is expected to affect ETFs with high allocations to FedEx, including ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF, iShares U.S. Transportation ETF, First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF, and Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF [2] ETF Details - ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF holds 40 stocks, with FedEx accounting for 4.6% of assets, and has an asset base of $0.9 million [6][7] - iShares U.S. Transportation ETF includes 44 securities, with FedEx making up 4.5% of assets and has $657.1 million in AUM [8][9] - First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF tracks 38 transportation securities, with FedEx accounting for 3.6% of the basket and has an asset base of $28.4 million [10][11] - Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF tracks 109 stocks, with FedEx representing 3.1% of the holdings and has accumulated $1.6 million in assets [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report a decline in both earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.42 per share, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year, and revenues projected at $21.06 billion, indicating a 3% decline from the same quarter last year [1][2]. Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS's earnings is $1.42 per share, reflecting a downward revision of seven cents over the past 60 days [1]. - Revenue estimates stand at $21.06 billion, which is a 3% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2]. Earnings Surprise History - UPS has a history of earnings surprises, with an average surprise of 3.43% across the last four quarters [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for UPS is -4.08%, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [5][6]. - UPS holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a bearish outlook [6]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation are expected to negatively impact shipping volumes [7]. - Labor costs are anticipated to be high, while low fuel costs may provide some relief, with a projected 5.1% decrease in fuel expenses compared to Q1 2024 [8]. Stock Performance - UPS stock has declined by 32.9% over the past year, underperforming its industry, which saw a 29.7% decline, while the S&P 500 rose by 7% [10]. Valuation Metrics - UPS is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.96, which is higher than its industry peers, indicating a stretched valuation [13]. Investment Thesis - A decline in shipping demand is expected, with average daily volumes projected to decrease by 8.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [16]. - Recent easing signals in the U.S.-China trade tensions may provide some optimism, but concerns over dividend sustainability amid demand weakness remain [18]. Long-term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, UPS's strong brand and network position it as a compelling long-term investment in the transportation sector [19].