Core Insights - The market sentiment is cautious, with a consensus that the market is cooling down, driven by narrative failures, token identity crises, and capital rotation towards AI stocks, indicating a fundamental recalibration of the industry rather than a short-term bear market [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are struggling to identify clear catalysts to reverse the negative sentiment, with many unable to pinpoint the next major trend in the crypto space [2] - Founders express a desire to secure funding earlier due to higher barriers, as investors now require more traction before committing [2] Group 2: Capital Rotation - There is a noticeable shift of capital towards AI stocks, particularly in Asia, with many "liquid funds" being family offices and proprietary capital rather than strictly authorized fund capital [3] - This capital is betting on AI stocks as the new default trading targets, reflecting momentum behavior rather than a fundamental shift in crypto investment logic [3] Group 3: Token Identity Crisis - Outside of major assets, there is little excitement for altcoins, with tokens losing their clear identity as reliable value accumulation and incentive alignment mechanisms [4] - Token issuance is increasingly viewed as disruptive, with a noisy and rapidly dissipating farming community making it difficult to convey lasting value or alignment signals [4] Group 4: Focus on Fundamentals - The market is favoring businesses with revenue, licenses, and distribution moats, as there is still a belief that crypto startups can yield better returns than traditional tech [5] - However, differentiation is becoming increasingly challenging in crowded sectors, with yield packaging products seen as saturated and lacking uniqueness [5] Group 5: Regional Opportunities - Latin America is highlighted as an attractive region with clear product-market fit and a move towards stricter regulations [6] - Successful teams will be those capable of navigating regulatory frameworks across countries and replacing traditional banking systems [6] Group 6: Industry Outlook - Despite weakened sentiment, there is no abandonment of crypto; expectations have simply risen, with investors demanding real evidence [7] - Founders are under pressure to focus on distribution and acquiring real users, with tokens facing stricter scrutiny on value capture and incentive alignment [7] - Wintermute remains optimistic, viewing the current reset as a healthy process that will forge resilient companies led by teams with long-term beliefs [7] Group 7: Recent Developments - Wintermute announced a new OTC trading service for tokenized gold aimed at institutional clients, supporting Pax Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) [8] - The market capitalization of on-chain gold has increased from approximately $2.99 billion to $5.4 billion in three months, with expectations for it to reach around $15 billion by 2026 [8] - The CEO of Wintermute expressed skepticism about the competition among public chains, stating that no significant developments are occurring on-chain, and emphasized the need for a return to the original ideals of the crypto movement [8]

Core Insights - Wintermute has launched a tokenized gold OTC trading service aimed at institutional clients, supporting Pax Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) [1] - The service offers algorithmically optimized spot execution for institutional counterparties and supports bilateral quotes and hedging trades with USDT, USDC, fiat currencies, and major cryptocurrencies [1] - Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy noted that the on-chain gold market capitalization increased from approximately $2.99 billion to $5.4 billion within three months, with expectations for the market size to reach around $15 billion by 2026 [1] Company Summary - Wintermute is expanding its service offerings by introducing a new trading platform for tokenized gold, targeting institutional investors [1] - The company aims to enhance trading efficiency through algorithmic execution and a diverse range of trading options [1] Industry Summary - The on-chain gold market is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in market capitalization over a short period [1] - Projections indicate a substantial expansion of the tokenized gold market, suggesting increasing interest and investment in this asset class [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid tariff policies and geopolitical events causing global financial market volatility, the value of gold as a traditional safe - haven asset is increasingly prominent. Blockchain technology has spurred the rise of cryptocurrencies and given birth to gold - backed stablecoins, which combine gold's safe - haven nature with the high liquidity and decentralization of cryptocurrencies, offering new investment and risk - management tools for the traditional gold market and creating new buyers for gold [1][7]. - The report analyzes tokenized gold models represented by Pax Gold and Tether Gold, as well as the PGI scheme proposed by the World Gold Council in September 2025, and explores the differences and complementarities among the traditional gold market, tokenized gold models, and the PGI model [1][7]. - Gold - backed stablecoins, represented by XAUt and PAXG, have advantages such as low investment thresholds and low fees, with relatively low margin occupancy, but also face regulatory compliance issues due to decentralization and currently have a small scale. The PGI scheme shows the ambition to combine compliance and flexibility, with unique advantages in pledge and lease convenience, but its specific performance and market impact need further observation after implementation [3][45]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Basics: The Technological Foundation for Understanding Gold - Backed Stablecoins 1.1 Core Features of Blockchain - Blockchain has two core features: non - tamperability and decentralization. Non - tamperability means that each transaction record on the blockchain is stored in a chained manner through encryption algorithms. To modify a historical transaction record in a block, one must modify a series of blockchain records and their cryptographic proofs, making the transaction records on the blockchain non - tamperable and non - forgeable [8]. - Decentralization means that the entire blockchain network has no single centralized server but consists of numerous nodes with equal rights, connected peer - to - peer. Transaction records are broadcast to the whole network, and all nodes can verify and store the complete transaction ledger, which helps build a trust mechanism and makes the network more secure and stable [11]. 1.2 Classification of Cryptocurrencies and the Positioning of Gold - Backed Stablecoins - Cryptocurrencies can be classified into three categories based on value anchoring: native cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin and Ether), stablecoins (e.g., USDT), and real - world assets (RWA). Gold - backed stablecoins are positioned between stablecoins and RWA, mainly as "convenient on - chain gold investment products" rather than "on - chain currencies" [15][17][18]. 2. Overview of Mainstream Gold - Backed Stablecoins: Pax Gold and Tether Gold 2.1 Pax Gold (PAXG): A Compliance Benchmark with Priority on Regulation - PAXG is an ERC - 20 standard gold token issued by Paxos in September 2019 on the Ethereum blockchain, with excellent compatibility. Paxos actively seeks higher - level financial regulation. Each PAXG token corresponds to 1 ounce of LBMA - certified physical gold stored in London vaults, and token holders can trace the corresponding gold. PAXG can be redeemed for legal tender, other cryptocurrencies, or physical gold. As of late October 2025, its market value has increased by 153.16% in the past year to about $1.35 billion, and the number of investment gold ounces has grown from 196,700 ounces to 332,000 ounces [22][24][25]. 2.2 Tether Gold (XAUt): A Late - Comer Dominator Backed by Tether - XAUt is issued by Tether, the issuer of the largest US dollar stablecoin USDT. It has become the leader in the gold - backed stablecoin market. Technically and in terms of reserves, it is similar to PAXG, but its compliance process is relatively slow. Tether is not a licensed financial institution, and its financial compliance risk is more uncertain. As of late October 2025, its market value has increased by 215.61% in the past year to about $2.14 billion, and the number of investment gold ounces has grown from 246,300 ounces to 521,800 ounces [27][28][29]. 2.3 Price Difference between Gold - Backed Stablecoins and Spot Gold - The quotes of mainstream gold - backed stablecoins represented by XAUt and PAXG are basically the same as the London gold spot price, but there are still price differences, with the premium or discount fluctuating within ±$100 per ounce [30]. 3. The World Gold Council's PGI Scheme: A Revolutionary Framework Combining Law, Technology, and Regulation 3.1 Background of the PGI Proposal - The traditional physical gold investment market has two trading models: allocated and unallocated gold models, both of which have pain points. The allocated gold model has a high investment threshold, poor liquidity, and holding costs, while the unallocated gold model has prominent counter - party risks. The PGI scheme is designed to address these issues [37]. 3.2 Core Design of PGI - The core design of PGI includes legal, technological, and regulatory aspects. Legally, it solves the legal difficulty of "divisible ownership" of physical gold, defining PGI as an "intangible movable property" with an account - isolation - like risk - control mechanism. Technologically, it is "technology - neutral", does not require physical delivery, and supports a minimum trading unit of one - thousandth of an ounce, with high liquidity. In terms of regulation, it meets the requirements of mainstream financial regulatory regulations in the US and Europe and can be used as a compliant collateral [38]. 4. Comparison of Gold Investment Tools - In terms of investment thresholds, gold - backed stablecoins and PGI have significantly lower thresholds. Gold - backed stablecoins have an advantage in holding costs. In terms of regulation, gold - backed stablecoins are weakly regulated due to decentralization, while PGI tries to balance blockchain technology and regulation. In terms of market scale, gold - backed stablecoins currently have a small scale, and the performance of PGI remains to be seen [43][44][45].