Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stock price has remained stagnant between $50 and $90 since a significant drop in 2022, with market expectations for a breakthrough by the end of 2024 not materializing, leading to a perception of the company as "PainPal" despite ongoing revenue and profit growth [1][21] Business Developments - PayPal is expected to perform well by the end of the year due to several strategic initiatives, including the relaunch of Braintree, expansion of advertising business, increased contribution from cryptocurrency, and rapid growth of Venmo and debit card services [3] Braintree Business - Braintree, PayPal's payment processing division, is refocusing on profitability by renegotiating contracts, which is projected to contribute 5% to revenue growth this year [5] - Although Braintree's transaction volume showed negative growth in early 2025, it is expected to accelerate from Q3 2025, indicating that recent revenue slowdowns are not as severe as anticipated [5][6] - A partnership with Google for payment processing is expected to significantly enhance transaction volumes [6] Advertising and Cryptocurrency Business - PayPal leverages its vast first-party transaction data to enhance its advertising business, which is expected to grow significantly and compete with major players like Google and Meta [8] - The advertising business has high margins and is anticipated to become a major revenue source by 2026, diversifying PayPal's profit structure beyond payment transaction volumes [9] - The cryptocurrency segment is benefiting from rising market prices and the introduction of stablecoins, which are expected to boost revenue and profit margins [10] Debit Card and Venmo Business - PayPal is expanding into offline payments through debit cards, which is expected to drive transaction volume growth, as evidenced by rapid user acquisition in Germany [12] Valuation - Despite projected double-digit growth in EPS and free cash flow over the next few years, PayPal's current rolling P/E ratio is only 14, which is low compared to historical performance and future growth expectations [14] - The significant discount in PayPal's free cash flow P/E ratio compared to peers suggests that the market does not recognize its growth potential [14] - A reasonable P/E ratio of at least 20 could imply a doubling of the stock price within 2.25 years, driven by product innovations and partnerships [15] Earnings Expectations - Analysts forecast PayPal's Q3 2025 revenue at $8.22 billion and EPS at $1.21, with expectations for the company to exceed these figures being crucial for market perception [17] - Free cash flow remains a key indicator, with a target of $6-7 billion for the year, and achieving this will be critical for maintaining investor confidence [17] Conclusion - PayPal's current low valuation, combined with multiple innovative business initiatives, positions the company for potential breakthroughs by the end of the year [21]

Core Insights - The current economic uncertainty presents opportunities for long-term investors to acquire quality businesses at attractive prices [1] PayPal - PayPal is undergoing a turnaround with new leadership and initiatives aimed at growth, including an advertising platform and improvements in cryptocurrency [3][4] - In the first quarter, PayPal reported an increase of 9 million active users year-over-year, total payment volume grew by 4%, and adjusted EPS increased by 23% [5] - Venmo's revenue growth accelerated to 20%, and debit card payment volume grew by over 60% following a successful product launch [6] - PayPal aims for sustainable annualized earnings growth of over 20% and currently generates more than $6 billion in free cash flow annually, with a valuation of 13 times forward earnings [7] SoFi Technologies - SoFi reported a 33% year-over-year revenue growth in the first quarter, with adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and net income reaching all-time highs [9] - The company added over 800,000 new members in a single quarter and originated $7.2 billion in loans, both records for SoFi [9] - Despite economic uncertainty, SoFi's credit quality improved, with declining delinquency and net charge-off rates, and noninterest income in the financial services segment quadrupled year-over-year [10] - SoFi's stock trades over 25% below its 52-week high, despite strong growth metrics, indicating a potential investment opportunity [11]