Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The 1-year+ holding wave of Bitcoin indicates that long-term holders are distributing their coins, consistent with historical patterns observed in post-halving years [1] - Investor expectations significantly drive Bitcoin's value, making its price highly reflexive and reinforcing the four-year cycle pattern, which has historically led to price peaks in Q4 of post-halving years [3][4] - The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional investment is changing the demand structure, providing a more stable bid for Bitcoin compared to retail-driven flows [5] 2026 Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that while it may not resemble a traditional bear market, heightened volatility and range-bound trading are expected due to structural support from institutional capital [8] - The four-year cycle expectation continues to influence market timing and sentiment, despite the evolving market conditions [8] Ethereum's Evolution - Ethereum has solidified its position as a dominant platform for decentralized finance and tokenization, but its monetary narrative as "Ultra-Sound Money" has weakened due to reduced transaction fees and inflationary supply dynamics [10][12] - The divergence between Ethereum's strength as a network and ETH's performance as an asset raises questions about its current narrative, with two emerging perspectives: "Digital Oil" and "Yield-bearing productive asset" [13][17] Layer-1 Blockchain Competition - The Layer 1 blockchain market has become increasingly competitive, with new entrants optimizing for compliance and performance, while Ethereum maintains advantages in decentralization and developer ecosystem [18][19] - The economic value of Layer 1 blockspace is trending toward its marginal cost of operation, reflecting a highly competitive environment [20][25] Privacy Coins Resurgence - Privacy coins like Zcash and Monero have seen a resurgence, driven by ongoing demand for privacy amid increasing regulatory scrutiny in the crypto space [26][30] - Zcash is positioned favorably due to its opt-in privacy model and compatibility with regulatory requirements, unlike Monero, which faces greater scrutiny [28][30] Perpetual DEX Growth - The Perp DEX sector has experienced significant growth, with weekly volumes increasing from $81 billion in 2024 to $314.7 billion in 2025, attracting institutional interest [36] - Despite rapid expansion, the capital base of Perp DEXs remains shallow, with a leverage ratio of approximately 2.0x, indicating limited risk absorption capacity [37] Prediction Markets Development - Prediction markets have transitioned from fringe experiments to significant components of financial infrastructure, with platforms like Polymarket demonstrating superior accuracy compared to traditional polling methods [48][49] - The sector is expected to mature further in 2026, with increasing institutional interest and the development of solutions to address existing structural challenges [52]

Core Insights - In the past 24 hours, three of the top five Perpetual DEXs by trading volume have utilized StarkNet technology, indicating a growing trend in the adoption of Layer 2 solutions in decentralized finance [1] - Notably, eight Perpetual DEXs have recorded trading volumes exceeding $1 billion in the same timeframe, showcasing significant market activity and liquidity [1] Group 1 - The three Perpetual DEXs using StarkNet technology are edgeX with StarkEx, Paradex with StarkNet Appchain, and Extended with StarkNet mainnet [1] - The overall trading volume for the top Perpetual DEXs reflects a robust interest in decentralized trading platforms [1] - The presence of multiple DEXs surpassing $1 billion in trading volume highlights the competitive landscape within the DeFi sector [1]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a quieter Christmas compared to previous years, with Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000, and Ethereum (ETH) showing a decline from its previous highs [2][3] - A survey conducted over a month gathered insights from various participants in the crypto community, focusing on their investment experiences and reflections on the past year [3][4] Group 1: Survey Demographics - Over 60% of survey respondents have been in the crypto space for more than three years, indicating a predominance of experienced investors [5] - Newer investors, defined as those with less than three years of experience, make up approximately 38% of the respondents, suggesting a decline in new market entrants [6] Group 2: Investment Performance - More than 57% of respondents reported making a profit, with 17.2% achieving over 50% gains and 39.7% seeing gains between 0-50% [8] - Approximately 27% of participants experienced losses, with 12.1% facing significant losses of over 50% [8] Group 3: Profitability by Sector - Meme coins remain a popular and profitable investment, with about 34% of respondents indicating they earned profits primarily from this sector [10] - Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL accounted for profits for around 26% of investors, reflecting their performance during the year [10] - DeFi projects attracted about 16% of respondents as a source of profit, while 12% reported earnings from airdrop interactions [10] Group 4: Losses by Sector - Approximately 28% of investors reported significant losses in meme coins and altcoins, highlighting their high-risk nature [14][15] - Contract trading resulted in losses for about 26% of participants, which is lower than expected given the volatility of the market [14] - NFT and GameFi projects were also significant sources of losses, with around 22% of respondents indicating they suffered due to these investments [14] Group 5: Reflections on Losses - About one-third of respondents attributed their losses to not cutting losses in time, a common issue among crypto investors [16] - Over 45% of participants cited slow reactions, conservative trading, or following market trends as reasons for their losses [16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The most promising sectors for 2026 include Real World Assets (RWA), AI, and meme coins, with RWA being mentioned by 31% of respondents [22][23] - Many participants advocate for a dollar-cost averaging strategy, particularly in BTC, as a sound investment approach [24]

Project Launch - Synthetix 将在以太坊主网上推出 Perp DEX，这是该公司在离开 L1 三年后重返 L1 的举措 [1] - 私人 Beta 版将首先支持比特币、以太坊和 Solana 市场 [1]

nadohq on ink doing $500m daily volume from 1,300 private alpha users. that's $384k per user. kraken built this perp dex internally and only gave access to their biggest accounts. opens to 13m kraken users after ipo in q1. 0.1% conversion puts volume at $5b daily. hyperliquid territory before anyone knows ink exists. ...

Project Launch & Community Engagement - QuickSwap's Perp DEX on Base (powered by Orbs + @symm_io) was featured on r/cryptocurrency's front page, indicating significant community interest [1] - An AMA (Ask Me Anything) session was hosted with r/CryptoCurrency Moderators (@CCMOD_), focusing on the new Perp DEX on Base, points program, and QUICK rewards [1] Key Discussion Points - The AMA covered topics such as points, tips, tricks, and the overall functionality of the new platform [1] - The AMA aimed to answer questions about the points program and QUICK rewards associated with the new Perp DEX [1]

Cookie had some good campaign listings recently.They just added my partners at Rails, allocating 0.5% of the $RAILS supply to the leaderboard.There is also an on-chain points campaign where 40% of the supply will go to traders.Rails is a perp DEX on Kraken's L2 Ink Network and raised $20M USD from Kraken and CMCC (among others).This feels like one of the more interesting campaigns, perp DEXes are one of the hot narratives right now and this one has good backing and a pretty enticing reward pool, worth payin ...

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)🤔 BEE NETWORK'S OWN PERP DEX?! Certainly not the announcement we expected from @Beenetworkintl... Catch up now https://t.co/3eE5TCk9fO ...

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)🤔 BEE NETWORK'S OWN PERP DEX?! Certainly not the announcement we expected from @Beenetworkintl... Catch up now https://t.co/3eE5TCk9fO ...

The perp DEX airdrop playbook seems simple:- Open short on one DEX and...- ... a long on another for perp DEXsKey is to monitor funding spread to generate outrageous APYs (e.g., 1256% APR on $ZORA)Use funding rate arbitrage scanners like @LorisTools, @Arbitraxdexs or the one built by @prz_chojeckiIt sounds simple, but fewer people farm this way than you might think.Tracking funding rates takes effort.Technical farmers use bots, but even retail degen traders can benefit due to lower(ish) liquidity for alt pe ...