（来源：吴说） 作者 | hitesh.eth 编译 | Saoirse，Foresight News 加密代币的核心是信仰。它们是有史以来被创造出的最纯粹的金融工具，目的是从人类身上榨取希望，并将其转化为流动性。代币价格波动并非源于实用 价值，而是源于故事，源于操纵，源于有人懂得如何将「注意力」变为操控市场的武器。这不是一个正常的市场，而是一个心理战场。大多数人完全没意 识到，自己在这个战场里就是待宰的猎物。 价格发现 无论宣传叙事多么天花乱坠，所有加密代币都遵循着相同的价格发现周期。周期始于「0–1 阶段」：此时炒作占据绝对主导，实际应用率几乎为零。价格 仅凭市场情绪一路飙升，社群围绕着虚构的「未来蓝图」形成，宣传话术的声势彻底盖过现实。随后，残酷的回调如期而至—— 这会淘汰掉意志不坚定 的持有者，也会揭穿那些只凭一句「承诺」就盲目入场的投资者。 深度下跌期往往是关键转折点。没有真实需求的项目会悄然消亡：停止更新推文、停止技术开发，然后慢慢从市场中消失，流动性则会转移到其他项目。 但少数代币能存活下来，进入「1–10 阶段」—— 此时炒作降温，实际应用开始起步。这些代币会经历一段缓慢且平淡的增长期，直到真 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a quieter Christmas compared to previous years, with Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000, and Ethereum (ETH) showing a decline from its previous highs [2][3] - A survey conducted over a month gathered insights from various participants in the crypto community, focusing on their investment experiences and reflections on the past year [3][4] Group 1: Survey Demographics - Over 60% of survey respondents have been in the crypto space for more than three years, indicating a predominance of experienced investors [5] - Newer investors, defined as those with less than three years of experience, make up approximately 38% of the respondents, suggesting a decline in new market entrants [6] Group 2: Investment Performance - More than 57% of respondents reported making a profit, with 17.2% achieving over 50% gains and 39.7% seeing gains between 0-50% [8] - Approximately 27% of participants experienced losses, with 12.1% facing significant losses of over 50% [8] Group 3: Profitability by Sector - Meme coins remain a popular and profitable investment, with about 34% of respondents indicating they earned profits primarily from this sector [10] - Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL accounted for profits for around 26% of investors, reflecting their performance during the year [10] - DeFi projects attracted about 16% of respondents as a source of profit, while 12% reported earnings from airdrop interactions [10] Group 4: Losses by Sector - Approximately 28% of investors reported significant losses in meme coins and altcoins, highlighting their high-risk nature [14][15] - Contract trading resulted in losses for about 26% of participants, which is lower than expected given the volatility of the market [14] - NFT and GameFi projects were also significant sources of losses, with around 22% of respondents indicating they suffered due to these investments [14] Group 5: Reflections on Losses - About one-third of respondents attributed their losses to not cutting losses in time, a common issue among crypto investors [16] - Over 45% of participants cited slow reactions, conservative trading, or following market trends as reasons for their losses [16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The most promising sectors for 2026 include Real World Assets (RWA), AI, and meme coins, with RWA being mentioned by 31% of respondents [22][23] - Many participants advocate for a dollar-cost averaging strategy, particularly in BTC, as a sound investment approach [24]

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Platform Registration & Discounts - OKX DEX wallet offers a discount registration link [1] - Binance wallet provides a fee discount code [1] - Binance offers a referral activity [1] Social Media & Community - Information shared via Twitter [1] - Telegram group available for community engagement [1] - Telegram contact provided [1] Keywords & Topics - Focus on Web3, Binance, ETH, BTC, and Crypto [1] - Mentions meme coins, Trump, Bitcoin, and related topics like $TRUMP and 川普币 (Trump Coin) [1] - Includes references to Elon Musk and Gork [1]

Platform Links & Discount Codes - OKX DEX wallet discount registration link provided [1] - Binance wallet fee discount code available [1] - Binance referral link shared [1] Social Media & Community - Twitter link for victalk6886 provided [1] - Telegram group link shared for community engagement [1] - Telegram contact: victalk2021 [1] Cryptocurrency & Memecoin Mentions - Mentions of Web3, Binance, ETH, BTC, and Crypto [1] - Focus on memecoins, specifically $TRUMP (川普币) and GORK [1] - Mentions of 川普 (Trump), 比特币 (Bitcoin), and 马斯克 (Musk) [1]

Market Performance - Bitcoin recorded a strong start in Q4, achieving a historical high of $126,199 with a weekly increase of approximately 10%[6] - The recent surge in the BSC chain's Chinese Meme coins led to a market capitalization exceeding $150 million within three days[6] Meme Coin Trends - The "Binance Life" token, inspired by popular internet memes, launched at approximately $0.001 and peaked above $0.5[6] - The involvement of Binance's founders significantly boosted the market, with CZ's social media engagement driving substantial price increases[6] Regulatory Environment - The U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of key employment data, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, far below the expected increase of 50,000[6] - The SEC has postponed decisions on Bitcoin ETF applications, potentially integrating them into a new "general listing standard" framework[6] ETF Inflows - Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $3.24 billion in net inflows last week, marking the second-best weekly performance on record[9] - Ethereum ETFs also saw significant inflows, contributing to a total of $1.645 billion over the same period[12] Investment Strategy - The current market is in a healthy technical correction phase, presenting opportunities for investors to reposition[13] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are identified between $120,000-$122,000, and for Ethereum between $4,400-$4,500, viewed as good entry points for accumulation[13]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency industry decreased by $633.5 billion, a decline of 18.6%, ending the first quarter of 2025 at $2.8 trillion, down from a peak of $3.8 trillion on January 18 [1][15][18] - Daily trading volume averaged $146 billion, a decrease of 27.3% compared to the previous quarter [1][15] - Bitcoin's market share increased by 4.6 percentage points to 59.1%, while Ethereum's market share fell to 7.9%, the lowest since the end of 2019 [1][18] Stablecoins vs. Mainstream Assets - The total market capitalization of stablecoins grew by $24.5 billion, reaching a historical high of $226.1 billion, with USDS surpassing USDe to become the third-largest stablecoin [2][24] - Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index maintained a high correlation during the quarter, both declining due to macroeconomic factors, with the annualized volatility of the cryptocurrency market at 56.3%, 3.4 times that of the S&P 500 [2][27] Key Trends and Major Events - AI tokens and meme coins captured 62.8% of investor attention, with the "Made in America" concept gaining traction due to Trump-related policies [3][30] - Significant events included Solana's trading volume surge, the launch of Trump-related tokens, Uniswap v4 going live, and a hacking incident at Bybit, each impacting the market to varying degrees [3][31] Bitcoin and Ethereum Dynamics - Bitcoin's price reached a historical high of $106,182 shortly after Trump's inauguration but fell by 11.8% during the quarter due to U.S. tariff policy concerns, ending at $82,514 [4][35] - Bitcoin mining hash rate increased by 9.5%, despite the price drop, while Ethereum's price plummeted by 45.3%, erasing all gains from 2024 [4][38] DeFi and NFT Market - The total market capitalization of DeFi fell by 19.3% to $96 billion, with multi-chain DeFi total value locked (TVL) decreasing by 27.5% [5][12] - NFT trading volume declined, particularly on the Ethereum blockchain, while Bitcoin's Ordinals protocol gained traction, leading to significant growth on the Magic Eden platform [5][12] Exchanges and Perpetual Contracts - The total trading volume of the top ten centralized exchanges decreased by 16.3%, with Bybit suffering a significant drop due to a hacking incident, while HTX was the only platform to show positive growth [6][12] - Trading volume on decentralized exchanges increased slightly by 6.2%, with Solana's ecosystem DEX performing notably well [6][12]

Project Overview - A new cryptocurrency named ANDY, inspired by the "Boy's Club" comic character Andy, is launching on Solana, referencing a previous coin with a peak market cap of $350 million [1] - The project aims to function both as a meme coin associated with Matt Furie and as a platform token for an AI agent platform [1] Fundraising and Distribution - The project employs a model similar to the "small dinosaur" donation pool, involving offline promotional teams [1] - A presale is underway, allowing users to send SOL to a designated address, with individual contributions ranging from 0.5 SOL to 100 SOL; the presale address currently holds 596 SOL [1] - An airdrop campaign is active, rewarding participants with 100 tokens for following the official Twitter account and retweeting the pinned post, with an additional 50 tokens for referrals [1] Future Development - The project anticipates integrating market-leading models upon launch to foster the growth of its AI agent platform [1] - The "Node Start Time" is scheduled for June 19, 2025, at 12:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of LABUBU coin, a cryptocurrency linked to the popular toy IP LABUBU from Pop Mart, highlighting the speculative nature and risks associated with such meme coins in the cryptocurrency market [1][3][6]. Group 1: LABUBU Coin Overview - LABUBU coin was launched recently and quickly gained attention in the cryptocurrency market, experiencing significant price volatility shortly after its listing on multiple exchanges [1][3]. - On its first day, LABUBU coin opened at $0.04429, peaked at $0.08786 (an increase of 98.37%), and then dropped to a low of $0.02915, reflecting a decline of 34.18% from the opening price [6]. - Over a span of 16 trading days, the coin's price fluctuated dramatically, with a high of $0.12244 and a low of $0.01590, leading to potential losses of up to 87.01% for investors who bought at the peak [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculation - The phenomenon of LABUBU coin exemplifies a common trend in the cryptocurrency market where tokens are created based on popular culture or trending events, often referred to as "meme coins" [9][10]. - These meme coins typically lack intrinsic value and are driven by market sentiment and speculation, leading to rapid price increases followed by steep declines [10][11]. - The article notes that the LABUBU coin is not officially issued by Pop Mart but rather created by a community of developers, indicating a lack of regulatory oversight and potential for fraud [6][10]. Group 3: Risks and Regulatory Concerns - Industry experts warn that the speculative nature of meme coins like LABUBU can lead to significant financial losses for ordinary investors, as these assets often lack real value and are subject to manipulation [10][12]. - The article highlights that many meme coins are created without proper governance or ongoing development support, making them susceptible to rapid price fluctuations and potential scams [10][14]. - Regulatory bodies have previously issued warnings against such token offerings, emphasizing the need for investor education to avoid falling victim to fraudulent schemes [10][14].

Group 1 - LABUBU, a popular IP from Pop Mart, has gained significant attention in the collectible toy market, leading to the launch of a virtual currency named LABUBU Coin [1][2] - LABUBU Coin experienced extreme price volatility shortly after its launch, with a peak price of $0.12244 and a subsequent drop to $0.01590, resulting in a loss of 87.01% for investors who bought at the peak [5][9] - The coin's market capitalization reached $55 million but fell to $45 million as trading enthusiasm waned [5][9] Group 2 - The launch of LABUBU Coin is seen as a speculative move, leveraging the popularity of the LABUBU IP to attract investment without any real asset backing [5][6] - The phenomenon of creating tokens based on trending events or cultural references is common in the cryptocurrency market, often leading to significant price fluctuations driven by market sentiment [7][8] - Industry experts warn that such tokens, often referred to as "Meme Coins," lack governance and development support, making them susceptible to manipulation and fraud [8][10] Group 3 - The volatility of Meme Coins is primarily driven by market emotions and speculative trading, posing substantial risks to ordinary investors [9][10] - The typical strategy employed by these projects involves creating artificial price movements to benefit early investors while transferring the risk to less informed traders [9][10] - Legal experts highlight that the issuance of Meme Coins is illegal in many jurisdictions, and investors are advised to avoid participation to protect their assets [10]