Key Points PDD Holdings is the owner of Pinduoduo and Temu. The company's revenue growth is slowing, while at the same time profit margins are compressing. Shares of the stock look cheap after this drawdown, but it doesn't come without risks. 10 stocks we like better than PDD Holdings › Shares of PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) fell 13.6% this week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. A Chinese technology giant that owns the e-commerce website Temu and its homegrown Pinduoduo online ...

As the market awaits Nvidia’s (NVDA)  much-anticipated Q3 report, impressive quarterly results from several Chinese tech firms have been a highlight of this week’s earnings lineup so far.Before the latest trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have been partly alleviated, Chinese equities had surged to multi-year highs. While profit-taking and macro pressures have led to a correction, these Chinese tech stocks are making the case for more upside after crushing Q3 earnings expectations.   Baidu – B ...

Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a 14% increase in third-quarter adjusted earnings, driven by steep discounts and heavy marketing spending, indicating strong demand in its home market [1] - Adjusted earnings per share reached 21.08 yuan ($2.97), surpassing analysts' expectations of 16.84 yuan, although U.S.-listed shares fell approximately 5% in early trading [1] - Revenue for the quarter rose by 9%, reflecting a moderation in growth compared to previous years [3] Company Performance - PDD's revenue for the quarter ending September 30 was 108.28 billion yuan, slightly below the average analyst estimate of 108.41 billion yuan [5] - Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders increased to 31.38 billion yuan from 27.46 billion yuan a year earlier [6] - The Singles' Day sales festival concluded on a subdued note, with many retailers initiating discounts earlier in October, marking the longest festival to date [6] Industry Context - Major Chinese retailers, including PDD, Alibaba, and JD.com, have been attracting domestic consumers through price cuts and substantial subsidized promotions amid low consumer confidence and a weak property market [2] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as industry peers invest heavily in new business models, leading to increased competition [3] - Global platforms like Temu are facing challenges due to changing trade regulations, including the U.S. ending duty-free exemptions on parcels under $800 and the EU planning to impose duties on low-cost packages [4][5]

Core Insights - Alibaba's aggressive investment in quick commerce is showing promising results, with a 12% year-over-year revenue growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by Taobao Instant Commerce [1][9] - The platform has significantly increased user engagement, achieving over 80 million average daily orders and nearly 300 million monthly active consumers, contributing to a 25% rise in Taobao's MAUs [1][9] - However, this expansion has negatively impacted profitability, with adjusted EBITDA declining by 14% year-over-year and free cash flow turning negative due to high capital demands [2][9] Financial Performance - The quick commerce segment's revenue growth is supported by a large addressable market of 30 trillion RMB, with consensus estimates predicting 5% revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and 12% in fiscal 2027 [4] - BABA shares have increased by 96.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which grew by 5.1% and 3.3%, respectively [7] Competitive Landscape - JD.com is a key competitor, rapidly expanding its JD NOW service and ensuring faster fulfillment through its advanced logistics network, although this could pressure its margins due to heavy investments [5] - PDD Holdings is emerging as a strong challenger with its asset-light model, focusing on affordability and social commerce, which poses a strategic threat to Alibaba's capital-intensive approach [6] Valuation Metrics - Alibaba's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 18.11X, compared to the industry's 23.14X, indicating a relative undervaluation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $6.97 per share, reflecting a 22.64% year-over-year decline [13]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 125.83 points (0.27%) to 46,728.81, the S&P 500 gaining 12.66 points (0.19%) to 6,727.25, and the Nasdaq increasing by 65.06 points (0.28%) to 22,853.42 [1] Company and Regulatory News - Temu, a Chinese e-commerce platform under PDD Holdings, is facing an antitrust investigation in Germany for allegedly imposing pricing requirements on merchants, including a mandate to list products at least 15% cheaper than competitors [2] - Saudi Arabia is in discussions to secure a $10 billion loan, indicating ongoing efforts to manage national finances or fund strategic initiatives, following similar financing efforts in previous years [3] Economic Outlook - The IMF warns of a challenging global economic outlook, projecting a slight decline in global GDP growth to 3.1% by 2029, with government debt expected to exceed $100 trillion for the first time this year [4] Healthcare Policy - The UK is in advanced discussions with the U.S. regarding pharmaceutical matters, potentially increasing NHS drug spending to levels comparable with the U.S. as a response to rising drug prices [5] Political and Banking Insights - Japan's likely next prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces coalition backlash that could impact her premiership, while the Federal Reserve Governor emphasizes the role of community banks in local economies and the influence of technology [6]

Core Insights - JD.com's accelerating user growth is a significant driver for its core Retail business and New Businesses like Food Delivery, leading to a 20.6% growth in Retail revenue and a 199% increase in the new business segment in Q2 2025 [1][4] User Growth and Engagement - The 618 Grand Promotion marked a pivotal moment for JD, with 2.2 billion orders and over 100% year-over-year growth in purchasing users, while quarterly active customers (QAC) grew over 40% [2][9] - JD Plus members demonstrated strong loyalty, with shopping frequency increasing by over 50%, indicating a willingness to spend more frequently [2][9] Food Delivery as a Growth Driver - Food Delivery is becoming increasingly important for JD, with high-frequency use enhancing engagement and supporting Retail spending [3][4] - The company is investing in logistics and technology, including the launch of JoyExpress in Saudi Arabia and plans to double overseas warehouses by 2025 to maintain this momentum [3] Competitive Landscape - Alibaba has rapidly expanded its user engagement through Taobao Instant Commerce, achieving 300 million monthly active consumers by August 2025, a 200% increase since April [5] - PDD Holdings has also seen strong user growth through Pinduoduo and Temu, often surpassing JD in attracting incremental users, particularly in lower-income and international segments [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - JD.com's shares have gained 1.3% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Retail and Wholesale sector's rise of 8.6% and the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry's growth of 12.2% [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.35X, significantly lower than the industry's 24.7X, and carries a Value Score of A [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD's earnings is $2.72 per share for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 36.15%, with a projected growth of 31.74% to $3.58 per share in 2026 [13]

Core Insights - Alibaba's International Digital Commerce (AIDC) segment is emerging as a significant growth driver, achieving 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 FY26 and moving closer to breakeven [1][9] - The growth is fueled by cross-border demand, localized logistics, and enhanced monetization strategies, particularly through platforms like AliExpress and Trendyol [2][4] - Operational discipline, including cost control and logistics scaling, is critical for AIDC's path to profitability [3][4] Revenue and Growth - AIDC's revenue increased by 19% year-over-year in Q1 FY26, with a notable reduction in losses [1][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects revenue growth of 4.38% for fiscal 2026 and 11% for fiscal 2027, indicating a positive outlook for AIDC [4] Competitive Landscape - Amazon remains a formidable competitor in international digital commerce, leveraging its logistics infrastructure and brand trust [5] - PDD Holdings is rapidly expanding with a focus on low-cost sourcing and unique social commerce innovations, positioning itself as a strong challenger to Alibaba [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Alibaba's shares have surged 96.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Earnings ratio of 17.41X, below the industry's 25.54X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $8.09 per share, reflecting a 10.21% year-over-year decline [14]

Group 1 - PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) exceeded expectations in its fiscal Q2 results, reporting a significant profit beat, but concerns about the sustainability of these profits remain [1][2] - The company achieved modest revenue growth aligned with expectations, alongside substantial cost savings in marketing and sales, leading to a stronger-than-expected operating profit [2] - PDD Holdings operates Pinduoduo, a leading online commerce platform in China, and the rapidly expanding e-commerce marketplace Temu, which is now active in over 50 countries [3] Group 2 - CMB International Securities analyst Saiyi He maintained a Buy rating on PDD Holdings and set a price target of $146.30 [1] - Despite the potential of PDD as an investment, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - Li Lu, an investor known as "the Chinese Warren Buffett," has made a significant investment in PDD Holdings, owning 4,608,000 shares valued at nearly $500 million as of June 30 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - PDD Holdings stock price decreased by 1.62% on August 14, but saw a pre-market increase of 1.18% on August 15 [2] - The stock had a trading volume of 5,151,744 shares on August 14, below its average of 6,113,639 shares [4] - Over the past year, PDD shares traded between $87.11 and $155.67, with a current market capitalization of $159.79 billion [4] Group 2: Financial Results - PDD's latest quarterly earnings reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37, which was below the consensus estimate of $2.25 [4] - Revenue for the quarter was $13.18 billion, significantly lower than the projected $103.37 billion [4] Group 3: Institutional Activity - The National Bank of Canada reduced its stake in PDD by selling 785,691 shares, a decrease of 73.4% [5] - Hollencrest Capital Management initiated a new position worth $26,000, while other firms opened positions ranging from $204,000 to $218,000 [6] - 3G Capital increased its holdings in PDD by 41.7%, now owning 425,000 shares, while divesting from Amazon [6] - Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively hold 39.83% of PDD's outstanding shares [6] Group 4: Analyst Opinions - Benchmark lowered its target price for PDD from $160 to $128 but maintained a "Buy" rating [7] - JPMorgan reduced its target from $125 to $105, assigning a "Neutral" rating [7] - Jefferies set a target price of $121 with a "Buy" rating [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD, Kuaishou, PDD, and Alibaba, while also recommending Meituan due to its significant market share despite profit declines [7][10][9]. Core Insights - The eCommerce landscape in China is experiencing heightened competition, particularly in food delivery and on-demand services, leading to revised earnings estimates for Alibaba and JD, with cuts ranging from -1% to -10% for 2025E-27E [1]. - June online retail goods GMV increased by 5% year-over-year, showing a moderation from 8% in May, with overall retail sales growing by 4.8% in June [2][28]. - The report anticipates profit declines across transaction platforms in the second half of 2025, with a potential inflection point for eCommerce share prices expected in the latter half of 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections eCommerce Tracker - Daily order volumes in the food delivery and on-demand retail industry peaked at approximately 250 million on July 12, with Meituan capturing significant market share through discounts [1]. - Alibaba is leveraging synergies between Taobao Instant Commerce and Ele.me, achieving over 80 million daily orders through its fulfillment network [1]. Market Performance - The national online retail goods GMV for June was reported at a 5% increase year-over-year, with a sequential moderation from 8% in May [2]. - The overall retail sales growth in June was 4.8% year-over-year, with notable strength in home appliances at 32% growth [28]. Parcel Volume Growth - The average daily parcel volume in July to date is approximately 531 million, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 15% [6][27]. - The report maintains a 2025E industry online GMV growth estimate at 6%, while adjusting the parcel volume growth estimate down to 17% from 19% [6]. Stock Implications - The report highlights a preference for sectors such as games, mobility, and internet verticals over eCommerce due to stronger near-term earnings setups [7]. - JD's market has largely priced in expected profit declines, while PDD is favored for its non-participation in the food delivery battle [9][10].