Core Insights - Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) are prominent pharmaceutical companies with strong positions in oncology and immunology, with AbbVie also expanding into aesthetics, neuroscience, and eye care, while Merck has a more diversified portfolio including vaccines and animal health [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Drivers - Oncology represents over 60% of Merck's total revenues, with Keytruda accounting for approximately half of its pharmaceutical sales [2] - AbbVie's immunology segment is the largest revenue contributor, with drugs like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq generating about half of total sales [2] - AbbVie has successfully managed the loss of exclusivity for Humira by launching new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are projected to exceed combined sales of $25 billion in 2025 and $31 billion by 2027 [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - AbbVie's oncology segment generated $5.0 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, while neuroscience drug sales rose 20.3% to nearly $7.8 billion [6] - Merck's Keytruda achieved sales of $23.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [10] - AbbVie's stock has increased by 26.6% over the past year, while Merck's stock has risen by 15% [22] Group 3: Pipeline and M&A Activity - AbbVie has engaged in over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024 to enhance its early-stage pipeline, particularly in immunology [7] - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, with plans to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs, including a new pneumococcal vaccine and a pulmonary arterial hypertension drug [12] - Merck has been active in acquisitions, including the $9.2 billion purchase of Cidara Therapeutics and around $10 billion for Verona Pharma, to bolster its pipeline [13][14] Group 4: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - AbbVie faces near-term challenges such as biosimilar erosion of Humira and competitive pressures on Imbruvica, with aesthetics sales declining by 7.4% in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - Merck is heavily reliant on Keytruda, with concerns about its ability to grow non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [16] - Both companies are facing competitive pressures, with Merck's Gardasil sales declining due to weak performance in China and other vaccines also experiencing sales drops [15] Group 5: Valuation and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2026 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 10.2% and 38.4%, respectively, while Merck's estimates imply a 3.7% sales increase but a 15.9% decrease in EPS [17] - AbbVie trades at a higher price/earnings ratio of 14.84 compared to Merck's 13.81, although both are below the industry average of 17.75 [22] - AbbVie's dividend yield is 3.06%, slightly lower than Merck's 3.2% [26]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) is experiencing significant challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, which has seen a decline in sales starting in 2024 after consistent growth until 2022 [1][3] Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Gardasil sales fell by 40% year-over-year to $4.20 billion, primarily due to weak demand in China amid an economic slowdown [2][9] - The company has temporarily halted Gardasil shipments in China to manage excess inventory levels at its partner Zhifei [3][9] - Sales of other vaccines, including ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq, and Pneumovax 23, also declined during the same period [5][9] New Products and Competition - Merck's new RSV antibody, Enflonsia, was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and generated $79 million in sales in Q3 2025, although it faces competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which recorded €1.09 billion in sales, up 33.8% year-over-year [6][7] - The company anticipates that sales of Enflonsia will be a focal point in the upcoming Q4 2025 results [6] Market Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Merck's shares have increased by 37.2%, outperforming the industry average of 23.6% [8] - Merck's current price/earnings ratio stands at 13.54, which is lower than the industry average of 17.72 but higher than its five-year mean of 12.48 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 earnings per share has slightly decreased from $8.97 to $8.96, while the estimate for 2026 has dropped from $9.28 to $7.92 over the past 60 days [11]

Core Insights - Merck's Gardasil vaccine is experiencing significant sales declines, particularly in China and Japan, with a projected negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.1% over the next three years [1][4] Sales Performance - Gardasil sales fell by 3% in 2024 and 40% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to weak demand in China and Japan [1][9] - The economic slowdown in China has led to higher-than-normal inventory levels for Merck's partner, Zhifei, prompting Merck to halt shipments of Gardasil in China until at least the end of 2025 [2][3] Competitive Landscape - Merck's other vaccines, including ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq, and Pneumovax 23, also saw sales declines in the first nine months of 2025 [6][9] - Merck's new RSV antibody, Enflonsia, recorded $79 million in sales in Q3 2025 but faces competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which achieved €1.09 billion in sales in the same period, up 33.8% year-over-year [6][7] Valuation and Market Performance - Year-to-date, Merck's shares have increased by 6.3%, underperforming the industry average of 15.9% [8] - Merck's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 11.97, lower than the industry average of 16.98 and its 5-year mean of 12.56, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 earnings per share has slightly increased from $8.94 to $8.98, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased from $9.56 to $8.81 over the past 60 days [11]

Core Insights - Merck is experiencing significant challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, which is a vaccine for preventing certain cancers caused by human papillomavirus. Sales, which had been rising until 2022, began to decline in 2024 and continued to struggle in 2025 [1][10]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Gardasil sales dropped 48% year-over-year to $2.45 billion, primarily due to weak demand in China amid an economic slowdown. This decline has led to higher-than-normal inventory levels at Merck's partner in China, Zhifei [2][10]. - Merck has decided to temporarily halt shipments of Gardasil to China to allow for inventory reduction, with no expected resumption of shipments until at least the end of 2025. Sales are projected to decline significantly in 2025 compared to 2024 levels [3][10]. - Demand for Gardasil is also weak in Japan, with expectations of continued low sales in both China and Japan for the latter half of 2025. Estimates suggest a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1% for Gardasil sales over the next three years [4]. Other Vaccines and Competitive Landscape - Besides Gardasil, Merck markets several other vaccines, including ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, and the newly approved Capvaxive [5]. - Sales of other vaccines, such as ProQuad and Pneumovax 23, also saw declines in the first half of 2025. Merck's new RSV antibody, Enflonsia, was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and is under review in the EU, aimed at protecting infants during their first RSV season [6]. - Enflonsia is the first treatment designed to protect infants with a uniform dose regardless of weight, but it faces competition from AstraZeneca and Sanofi's RSV antibody, Beyfortus, which achieved blockbuster status in its first full year of sales in 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Merck's shares have declined by 15.8%, underperforming the industry, sector, and S&P 500 [9]. - From a valuation perspective, Merck's shares trade at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.97, which is lower than the industry average of 15.62 and its 5-year mean of 12.64 [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has decreased from $8.94 to $8.92, and for 2026, it has decreased from $9.55 to $9.44 over the past 60 days [12].

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Insights - Merck's Gardasil vaccine, crucial for preventing HPV-related cancers, has seen a significant decline in sales, particularly in China, leading to a revised sales outlook [1][2][9] - The company has temporarily halted Gardasil shipments to China to manage high inventory levels, impacting its long-term sales guidance [2][9] - Despite challenges in China, Gardasil sales remain strong in other major markets, although global growth is expected to slow [3] Sales Performance - Gardasil sales fell 40% year-over-year to $1.33 billion in Q1 2025, with a 3% decline to $8.58 billion in 2024 [1][9] - The economic slowdown in China has led to elevated inventory levels, prompting Merck to pause shipments [2][9] Market Competition - Merck's new monoclonal antibody, Enflonsia, for RSV prevention is set to launch in the U.S. but will face competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which achieved blockbuster status in its first year [5][6] - Other RSV vaccines, including Pfizer's Abrysvo and GSK's Arexvy, have also been approved, increasing competitive pressure [6][7] Valuation and Estimates - Merck's shares have underperformed, losing 17.8% year-to-date compared to a 2.6% industry increase [8] - The company's price/earnings ratio stands at 8.79, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.63 [10] - Consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, indicating a potential decline in profitability [11]