Key Takeaways Merck issued revenue guidance of $65.5-$67.0 billion for 2026, which was below consensus.MRK's EPS view of $5.00-$5.15 includes a $9B Cidara acquisition charge and factors in FX benefits.Merck expects oncology growth led by Keytruda and new launches to offset $2.5B headwinds from competition.Merck (MRK) announced better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Feb. 3. Along with its earnings release, the company issued a fresh earnings and sales outlook for 2026, which fell short of consensus e ...

2月3日，默沙东发布2025年第四季度及全年财务业绩。在Keytruda持续增长、Winrevair与Capvaxive等新产品贡献提升，以及动物保健业务表现稳 健的推动下，公司全年销售额达650亿美元，同比增长1%。非GAAP口径下每股收益为8.98美元，同比增长17%。 默沙东2025年业绩表现稳健，但对2026年的盈利预期低于市场共识。公司预计全年销售额为655亿至670亿美元，调整后每股收益为5.00至5.15美 元，两项指引均未达到华尔街普遍预期。 该药物的增长主要由其早期适应症的全球市场需求推动，涵盖三阴性乳腺癌、非小细胞肺癌、肾细胞癌、宫颈癌及头颈癌等领域，同时转移性尿 路上皮癌、胃癌和子宫内膜癌等适应症亦持续贡献稳定需求。值得注意的是，新推出的皮下注射剂型Keytruda Qlex在第四季度于美国市场实现销 售额3500万美元。 受收购Cidara Therapeutics产生的一次性费用影响，2026年调整后每股收益中包含约3.65美元的收购相关支出，导致其较2025年的8.98美元显著下 降。若剔除该短期并购影响，公司核心业务仍预计保持增长态势。 | $ in millions, exce ...

Key Takeaways MRK posted Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.04 and revenues of $16.40B, beating estimates for both metrics.MRK's Q4 revenues grew 5% to $16.40B, led by oncology, new drugs and Animal Health segment.MRK's 2026 outlook falls short of investors' expectations in terms of revenues and earnings.Merck (MRK) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.04, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03. Earnings increased 19% year over year, both on a reported basis and excluding foreig ...

智通财经APP获悉，2月3日美股盘前，美国医药巨头默沙东(MRK.US)公布最新季度业绩数据报告与未 来业绩展望，默沙东因佳达修(Gardasil)困境而给出不及市场预期的展望。该公司管理层最新预测的 2026年销售额和利润低于华尔街分析师平均预期，因为其重磅HPV疫苗佳达修(Gardasil)持续面临挑战 ——该疫苗产品今年可能仍将在中国市场无法实现强劲出货与销售额增长，从而掩盖了默沙东"K药"以 及一些新药产品带来的强劲增长数据。 默沙东周二表示，全年销售额区间将为655亿美元至670亿美元，低于华尔街分析师们平均预估。该公司 预计经调整后的每股收益最高可达5.15美元(展望区间为5.00美元至5.15美元)，同样低于华尔街分析师平 均预期。该股公布业绩之后在美股盘前交易中一度下跌3.2%。 默沙东长期以来一直在应对其第二大产品——用于预防致癌人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)的佳达修疫苗，在中国 市场需求大幅下降的问题。一位发言人对分析师表示，该公司在其2026年全年业绩指引中并未假设对中 国有任何佳达修出货;此前公司已宣布将对中国市场的出货暂停至2025年底。 第四季度整体业绩方面，默沙东总销售额约164亿美元， ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on February 3, with a consensus estimate of $16.19 billion in sales and $2.04 per share in earnings, but earnings estimates for 2026 have declined significantly due to costs from recent M&A activities [1][7][34] Financial Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.08% and a notable 9.32% surprise in the last quarter [3][34] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Q4 growth is anticipated from Keytruda, Animal Health, and new drugs, although this may be offset by weaker performance from Gardasil and M&A-related costs [7][34] - Keytruda sales are projected to reach $8.31 billion, driven by strong uptake in early-stage indications and metastatic indications [9][34] - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see lower sales, particularly in China and Japan, with estimates at $1.04 billion [13][34] - The Animal Health segment is estimated to generate $1.48 billion, with mixed performance in livestock and companion animal products [17][34] Strategic Initiatives - Merck has been active in acquisitions, including Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion and Verona Pharma for around $10 billion, aimed at bolstering its pipeline ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [28][30] - The company is positioned to launch approximately 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years, with several having blockbuster potential [27][34] Market Position and Valuation - Merck's stock has increased by 9.4% over the past year, underperforming the industry average of 16.1% [20][34] - The company's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 15.62, lower than the industry average of 18.18, but above its five-year mean of 12.48 [23][34] Investment Considerations - While Keytruda remains a significant revenue driver, there are concerns about Merck's reliance on this drug and its ability to diversify its product lineup [31][34] - Short-term investors may be cautious due to challenges such as Gardasil's performance, potential competition for Keytruda, and rising pressures from generics [34]

Core Insights - Merck is set to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 3, with a focus on the sales performance of its cancer drug Keytruda, which accounted for over 50% of pharmaceutical sales in the first nine months of 2025 [2][11] - Keytruda's sales increased by 8% year over year in Q3 2025, but were below expectations, prompting attention on Merck's non-oncology drugs, particularly Capvaxive and Winrevair, which are expected to drive long-term growth [3][5] Sales Performance - Keytruda's sales performance is critical, with a noted increase of 8% year over year in Q3 2025, but weaker than anticipated [3] - Capvaxive and Winrevair have shown strong sales, with Capvaxive generating $480 million and Winrevair $976 million in the first nine months of 2025 [5][11] - The Animal Health business is also contributing to top-line growth, with expected revenue increases in Q4 [6] Product Approvals and Market Competition - Capvaxive was approved in the U.S. in June 2024 and in the EU in March 2025, while Winrevair was approved for PAH treatment in 2024 [4] - Enflonsia, a new RSV antibody, recorded sales of $79 million in Q3 2025, with its performance in Q4 still uncertain as it moves into broader clinical use [7] - Winrevair faces competition in the PAH market from United Therapeutics and Johnson & Johnson, while Enflonsia competes with AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus [8][10] Financial Performance and Valuation - Merck's shares have increased by 30.6% over the past six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [13] - The company's price/earnings ratio stands at 15.61, which is lower than the industry average of 18.36 but higher than its 5-year mean of 12.48 [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has slightly decreased from $8.98 to $8.95, and for 2026 from $8.81 to $6.94 over the past 60 days [15]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) are prominent pharmaceutical companies with strong positions in oncology and immunology, with AbbVie also expanding into aesthetics, neuroscience, and eye care, while Merck has a more diversified portfolio including vaccines and animal health [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Drivers - Oncology represents over 60% of Merck's total revenues, with Keytruda accounting for approximately half of its pharmaceutical sales [2] - AbbVie's immunology segment is the largest revenue contributor, with drugs like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq generating about half of total sales [2] - AbbVie has successfully managed the loss of exclusivity for Humira by launching new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are projected to exceed combined sales of $25 billion in 2025 and $31 billion by 2027 [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - AbbVie's oncology segment generated $5.0 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, while neuroscience drug sales rose 20.3% to nearly $7.8 billion [6] - Merck's Keytruda achieved sales of $23.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [10] - AbbVie's stock has increased by 26.6% over the past year, while Merck's stock has risen by 15% [22] Group 3: Pipeline and M&A Activity - AbbVie has engaged in over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024 to enhance its early-stage pipeline, particularly in immunology [7] - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, with plans to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs, including a new pneumococcal vaccine and a pulmonary arterial hypertension drug [12] - Merck has been active in acquisitions, including the $9.2 billion purchase of Cidara Therapeutics and around $10 billion for Verona Pharma, to bolster its pipeline [13][14] Group 4: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - AbbVie faces near-term challenges such as biosimilar erosion of Humira and competitive pressures on Imbruvica, with aesthetics sales declining by 7.4% in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - Merck is heavily reliant on Keytruda, with concerns about its ability to grow non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [16] - Both companies are facing competitive pressures, with Merck's Gardasil sales declining due to weak performance in China and other vaccines also experiencing sales drops [15] Group 5: Valuation and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2026 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 10.2% and 38.4%, respectively, while Merck's estimates imply a 3.7% sales increase but a 15.9% decrease in EPS [17] - AbbVie trades at a higher price/earnings ratio of 14.84 compared to Merck's 13.81, although both are below the industry average of 17.75 [22] - AbbVie's dividend yield is 3.06%, slightly lower than Merck's 3.2% [26]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) is experiencing significant challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, which has seen a decline in sales starting in 2024 after consistent growth until 2022 [1][3] Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Gardasil sales fell by 40% year-over-year to $4.20 billion, primarily due to weak demand in China amid an economic slowdown [2][9] - The company has temporarily halted Gardasil shipments in China to manage excess inventory levels at its partner Zhifei [3][9] - Sales of other vaccines, including ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq, and Pneumovax 23, also declined during the same period [5][9] New Products and Competition - Merck's new RSV antibody, Enflonsia, was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and generated $79 million in sales in Q3 2025, although it faces competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which recorded €1.09 billion in sales, up 33.8% year-over-year [6][7] - The company anticipates that sales of Enflonsia will be a focal point in the upcoming Q4 2025 results [6] Market Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Merck's shares have increased by 37.2%, outperforming the industry average of 23.6% [8] - Merck's current price/earnings ratio stands at 13.54, which is lower than the industry average of 17.72 but higher than its five-year mean of 12.48 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 earnings per share has slightly decreased from $8.97 to $8.96, while the estimate for 2026 has dropped from $9.28 to $7.92 over the past 60 days [11]

Core Insights - Merck's stock has increased by 32.3% over the past three months, indicating strong bullish momentum as it trades above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages [1] - Keytruda, Merck's leading drug, accounts for over 50% of its pharmaceutical sales, generating $23.3 billion in sales during the first nine months of 2025, an 8% year-over-year increase [2][3] - The company is facing challenges with declining sales of Gardasil, which fell by 40% due to weak demand in China, and is expected to see further declines in 2025 [13][14] Keytruda's Performance and Strategy - Keytruda's sales are benefiting from increased uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued momentum in metastatic indications [3] - Merck is pursuing innovative strategies to sustain Keytruda's growth, including new immuno-oncology combinations and a subcutaneous formulation approved by the FDA [4][5] - The company is also developing a personalized mRNA therapeutic cancer vaccine in collaboration with Moderna, which is currently in pivotal phase III studies [4] Pipeline and M&A Activities - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, positioning the company to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years, including Capvaxive and Winrevair [7] - Recent acquisitions, such as Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion and Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, are expected to enhance Merck's product offerings and revenue potential [11][12] Financial Performance and Valuation - Merck's shares have risen 10.3% over the past year, but the stock is still viewed as underperforming compared to the industry, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.15, lower than the industry average of 17.86 [19][22] - Earnings estimates for 2026 have decreased from $9.23 to $7.94 per share, attributed to costs from recent M&A activities [25] Challenges and Market Outlook - Merck's reliance on Keytruda raises concerns about its ability to diversify its product lineup ahead of the drug's patent expiration in 2028 [16] - Competitive pressures are increasing, particularly from dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitors that may challenge Keytruda's market position [17][18] - Short-term investors may be cautious due to ongoing challenges with Gardasil and the potential impact of competition on Keytruda [29]

Core Insights - The biotechnology sector presents high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities as companies strive to introduce breakthrough therapies to the market. Three notable biotech stocks are highlighted for potential investment in 2026 [1]. Company Overview: Ligand Pharmaceuticals - Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) operates as a royalty-based biopharmaceutical company with a diversified portfolio developed through partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms [2]. - The company utilizes its Captisol drug delivery technology platform, which generates consistent revenue from multiple approved medications [2]. Financial Performance - Ligand has a market capitalization of $3.9 billion, with its shares having nearly tripled in value over the past three years [3]. - The company maintains a lean operational structure, generating cash from twelve commercial-stage products while managing a pipeline of over eighty development-stage programs [3]. - Ligand's royalty revenue has doubled since 2022, and operating expenses have decreased by over 50% [4]. Revenue Projections - For 2025, Ligand anticipates core revenue between $225 million and $235 million, with adjusted earnings projected at approximately $7.50 per share [4]. - The company expects royalty revenue to grow by 40% in 2026, driven by products targeting kidney disease, respiratory conditions, and pneumococcal infections [5]. - Management forecasts a compounded annual growth rate of 23% for royalty revenue through 2030, an increase from the previous estimate of 22% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Ligand's confidence in revenue growth is supported by a strong commercial portfolio and strategic acquisitions, including the Apeiron deal and the Pelthos spin-out, which has created a standalone company valued at around $300 million [6]. - With over $1 billion in deployable capital, Ligand has the financial flexibility to invest in growth projects, targeting annual investments between $150 million and $250 million [7].