Ligand Pharmaceuticals FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:LGND) - **Industry**: Biopharmaceuticals - **Business Model**: Royalty aggregation, focusing on investing in royalty contracts rather than equity or debt securities [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Business Strategy - Ligand operates as a royalty aggregator, managing a portfolio of over 100 partnerships, with 12 major commercial-stage royalty streams generating over $150 million in positive cash flow for the year [3][4] - The company emphasizes a diversified cash flow model, reducing reliance on single asset success [3][4] - Ligand has a low SG&A and OPEX relative to revenues, leveraging existing infrastructure from partner companies [4] Financial Performance - In Q3, Ligand reported total revenue of $87 million, a 68% increase year-over-year, and updated guidance for total revenue to $225 million-$235 million [21][24] - Q3 royalties reached $47 million, a 47% increase from the previous year, with adjusted EPS growing 68% to $3.09 per share [21][22] - The company ended the quarter with $665 million in cash and investments, totaling over $1 billion in deployable capital [23] Growth Drivers - Recent product approvals include Pilthos' Zelsuvmy, Merck's Capvaxive, and Verona's Ohtuvayre, contributing to expected future growth [20][21] - Ligand anticipates a 22% CAGR in royalty receipts over the next five years, driven by existing commercial programs and new investments [25][26] Competitive Landscape - Ligand has not faced direct competition in its investment strategy over the past three years, primarily competing with equity and debt alternatives [28][30] - The company operates in a niche market with limited capital available for late-stage clinical development, positioning itself favorably against larger competitors [18][19] Risk Management - Ligand's investment strategy includes a focus on minimizing financing risk, as royalties are non-dilutable and protected under bankruptcy codes [6][7] - The company employs a private equity-style investment process, ensuring thorough due diligence and risk assessment before making investments [5][17] Future Outlook - Ligand's royalty portfolio is expected to grow significantly, with products like O2VARE projected to reach peak sales of $3 billion, potentially up to $6 billion [26][27] - The company is actively pursuing new investments and partnerships to enhance its portfolio and revenue streams [25][40] Additional Important Information - Ligand's Captisol business operates with minimal infrastructure, allowing for efficient management and high margins [9][10] - The company has a strong management team with diverse expertise in both scientific and financial domains, enhancing its investment decision-making process [34][35] - Ligand's approach to royalty monetization includes offering upfront payments for royalty rights from inventors and institutions, providing a strategic advantage in risk management [11][12] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Ligand Pharmaceuticals' FY conference, highlighting its business model, financial performance, growth strategies, competitive positioning, and future outlook.

Core Insights - Merck's shares have increased by 9.6% over the past month, recovering from a dip following the third-quarter earnings report, which beat estimates for earnings and sales but saw Keytruda miss sales expectations [1][3] - The company has narrowed its sales guidance while raising its EPS outlook, and the stock has shown recovery due to positive pipeline updates and the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion [1][2] Keytruda's Performance - Keytruda remains Merck's most significant asset, accounting for over 50% of pharmaceutical sales, with sales reaching $23.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year [4][5] - The drug's growth is driven by its uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued momentum in metastatic indications [5] - Merck is pursuing strategies to enhance Keytruda's long-term growth, including innovative combinations and a new subcutaneous formulation approved by the FDA [6][7] Pipeline and M&A Activity - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, positioning the company to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years, including a new pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and a drug for pulmonary arterial hypertension [9][10] - The acquisition of Verona for $10 billion added a novel treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, enhancing Merck's cardio-pulmonary portfolio [13] Challenges and Declines - Sales of the Gardasil vaccine, Merck's second-largest product, have declined by 40% in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to weak demand in China [14][15] - Other vaccines and diabetes products are also experiencing declining sales, raising concerns about Merck's ability to diversify its product lineup ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [16][17] Stock Performance and Valuation - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, losing 6.5% year-to-date compared to a 14% increase in the industry [20][21] - The company's shares are trading at a forward P/E ratio of 10.04, lower than the industry average of 16.72, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [23] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, Merck's new products are showing strong launches, and the approval of Keytruda Qlex may mitigate the impact of Keytruda's loss of exclusivity in 2028 [28] - The company is advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainties surrounding Gardasil's performance, competition for Keytruda, and rising pressures on other products [30]

Key Points The overall market may be up solidly this year, but some individual shares still look like bargains. Merck's evolving core franchise and new launches should help mitigate the risks facing its business. Fiverr is delivering profitable growth while tapping into a critical long-term opportunity. 10 stocks we like better than Merck › All things considered, broader equities have performed pretty well in 2025, with the S&P 500 up 14% since the beginning of the year. It seems so long ago that ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue and other income for Q3 2025 on a GAAP basis was $115.5 million, up from $51.8 million in the same quarter last year, with core revenue growing 68% year over year to $86.9 million [26][34] - Royalty revenue rose 47% year over year to $46.6 million, and adjusted EPS increased 68% to $3.09 [26][34] - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting core revenue of $225-$235 million and adjusted EPS of $7.40-$7.65 [35][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Royalty revenue growth was driven by strong performances from products like Travere's Filspari, Merck's Ohtuvayre, and Capvaxive, with Filspari becoming the largest royalty-generating asset [30][31] - Filspari reported Q3 sales of $90.9 million, a 155% year-over-year increase, while O2VARE sales reached $136 million, a 32% sequential increase [30][31] - Capvaxive generated $244 million in sales, an 89% sequential increase, reinforcing its market position [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong uptake of Zelsuvmi in its early launch phase, with expectations for continued momentum [7] - Ohtuvayre is tracking ahead of initial forecasts, with Q3 sales growing 32% sequentially, and projected sales of $2 billion by 2029 [10][11] - The FDA has assigned a PDUFA date of January 13, 2026, for Filspari's second indication, FSGS, which could significantly expand its market opportunity [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has focused on building a diversified portfolio of high-margin royalties and has successfully executed a convertible debt financing to support growth initiatives [5][6] - The strategic direction set in 2022 has led to significant growth across core revenue and adjusted EPS, with a long-term royalty growth outlook of 22% CAGR [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing high-quality investment opportunities and expanding its business development team to capitalize on its robust pipeline [27][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the commercial royalty portfolio and the potential for indication and geographic expansion of key products [36][37] - The company highlighted the positive developments in the FDA's approach to accelerating timelines for innovative treatments, which aligns with its investment strategy [16][49] - Management remains optimistic about the ongoing progress of the Pelthos team and the launch momentum of Zelsuvmi [37] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $1 billion in deployable capital, including cash and investments [7][27] - The Pelthos transaction resulted in a $53 million gain recognized in Q3, reflecting the strategic value of the spin-out [24][25] - The company has seen record-setting origination activity, reviewing over 130 investment opportunities in the first three quarters of the year [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Opportunities and special situations related to Pelthos and Palvella - Management indicated a robust opportunity set in special situations, focusing on companies needing more than just capital [38][39] Question: Changes in investment opportunities and capital demands - Management noted that while the deal flow may shift with market conditions, the demand for royalty capital remains high, particularly for development-stage assets [44][45] Question: Insights on the ZELSUVMI launch and future expectations - Management provided limited additional information but indicated that more specifics would be available during the upcoming earnings call [50][51] Question: Competitive landscape for royalty assets - Management acknowledged potential future competition but noted that they have not yet seen significant changes in the competitive landscape [53][54] Question: Thoughts on the recent approval of Furoscix - Management expressed optimism about Furoscix's potential to provide a differentiated treatment option in the market [56]

Corporate Presentation November 4, 2025 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to the potential benefits of Vaxcyte's carrier-sparing platform and vaccine candidates, including breadth of coverage and the ability to deliver potentially better immune responses, a potentially best-in-class pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) ...

Core Insights - The competition for the title of "King of Drugs" is intensifying, with Eli Lilly's weight loss drug, Tirzepatide, leading sales in the first three quarters of the year, surpassing Merck's Keytruda [2][3] - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Johnson & Johnson, Roche, and Merck, have raised their annual revenue guidance following strong third-quarter performances [5][6][7] Group 1: Company Performance - Johnson & Johnson reported total revenue of $69.63 billion, leading the industry, with pharmaceutical revenue at $44.64 billion [4] - Eli Lilly achieved pharmaceutical revenue of $45.89 billion, driven by Tirzepatide, which generated $24.8 billion in sales [3][5] - Merck's total revenue reached $48.61 billion, with pharmaceutical revenue at $43.3 billion; however, sales growth for Keytruda has slowed [7] Group 2: Drug Sales Highlights - Tirzepatide's sales for the first three quarters reached $24.84 billion, with a significant increase in sales for its diabetes version, Mounjaro, which saw a 109% year-on-year growth [3] - Keytruda's sales were $23.30 billion, reflecting an 8% growth, but the growth rate is slowing down [7] - Roche's Phesgo saw a 54% increase in sales, contributing to a pharmaceutical revenue of approximately $42.55 billion [6] Group 3: Revenue Guidance Adjustments - Eli Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $63 billion and $63.5 billion [5] - Johnson & Johnson adjusted its revenue forecast to grow by 4.8% to 5.3%, targeting $93 billion to $93.4 billion [5] - Roche also increased its annual revenue expectations based on strong third-quarter results [6]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.58, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.36, with a year-over-year increase of 64% on a reported basis and 65% excluding foreign exchange [1][10] - Revenues for Q3 increased by 4% year-over-year to $17.28 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion [1][10] Sales Performance of Key Products - Keytruda, Merck's leading oncology drug, generated sales of $8.14 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.40 billion [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales rising 12% to $379 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg recorded sales of $196 million, reflecting a 41% increase due to higher demand in the U.S. and early uptake in Europe [5] - HPV vaccines, Gardasil and Gardasil 9, saw a 25% decline in sales to $1.75 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China and Japan [6] - Capvaxive, a new pneumococcal vaccine, generated $244 million in sales, up from $129 million in the previous quarter [7] - The diabetes drug franchise, Januvia/Janumet, saw a 29% increase in sales to $624 million, driven by higher net pricing in the U.S. [8] Animal Health Segment - The animal health segment generated revenues of $1.62 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 sales guidance to $64.5-$65.0 billion, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous range [12] - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 was raised to a range of $8.93 to $8.98, incorporating a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [13] - The updated EPS outlook includes benefits from a revised AstraZeneca deal and improved operations, partially offset by costs from the acquisition of Verona Pharma [14][15] Market Reaction - Despite strong Q3 results, Merck's shares fell over 2% in pre-market trading due to Keytruda's weaker-than-expected sales and the narrowed sales guidance [19]

Core Viewpoint - Merck's Q3 sales reached $17.28 billion, exceeding market expectations, with adjusted EPS of $2.58, significantly surpassing Wall Street forecasts and last year's $1.57 [2][3] Financial Performance - Q3 sales of $17.28 billion exceeded the expected $16.96 billion, driven by strong performance from the pneumonia vaccine Capvaxive, which generated $244 million in sales, also above analyst estimates [3][4] - Merck adjusted its 2025 sales guidance down by $300 million, now expecting full-year sales of $64.5 billion to $65 billion, up from a previous estimate of $64.3 billion to $65.3 billion [3] - The company slightly raised its full-year profit forecast to $8.98 per share, from a prior estimate of $8.87 to $8.97 [3] Product Highlights - Capvaxive emerged as a standout product, with Q3 sales of $244 million, outperforming Wall Street expectations [4] - Capvaxive has the potential to become a preferred product, as it can prevent 80% of pathogenic strains in adults, compared to Pfizer's Prevnar, which covers only 50% [4] Cost Management - The company is actively implementing cost control measures in preparation for the patent expiration of Keytruda, with R&D spending down over $1.6 billion year-over-year [6] - Merck announced plans to cut annual spending by $3 billion by the end of 2027, primarily through workforce reductions and real estate holdings [6] Regulatory and Market Challenges - Merck faces potential tariff threats, with competitors like Pfizer and AstraZeneca negotiating agreements for drug discounts in exchange for tariff exemptions [7] - The company has stockpiled sufficient Keytruda inventory to mitigate tariff impacts this year and plans to invest over $9 billion in domestic manufacturing over the next four years [7] - Merck also faces challenges from government recommendations regarding its ProQuad vaccine, which may affect its market position [7]

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co. (MRK.US) has lowered its revenue guidance for 2025, indicating challenges ahead as it prepares for the patent expiration of its key cancer drug, Keytruda [1][2] Financial Performance - The company adjusted its 2025 revenue guidance down by $300 million, now expecting sales between $64.5 billion and $65 billion [1] - Third-quarter revenue reached $17.3 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations of $16.96 billion [2] - Net profit for the quarter was $5.79 billion (or $2.32 per share), up from $3.16 billion ($1.24 per share) in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.58, exceeding the market forecast of $2.35 [2] - The company slightly raised its full-year earnings per share forecast to a maximum of $8.98 [2] Product Performance - Keytruda and the anticipated rare lung disease drug Winrevair did not meet sales expectations in the latest quarter [1] - Sales of the new pneumonia vaccine, Capvaxive, reached $244 million, exceeding Wall Street expectations [2] - The vaccine is positioned to compete directly with Pfizer's Prevnar, with Capvaxive showing an 80% efficacy against adult pathogens compared to Prevnar's 50% [2] - Sales of Gardasil, the second-largest product, declined by 24% to $1.7 billion, primarily due to decreased demand in China [3] Cost Management and R&D - R&D spending decreased by over $1.6 billion compared to the previous year, attributed to reduced business development costs [3] - The company announced a cost-cutting plan aiming to save $3 billion annually by 2027 through workforce reductions and real estate downsizing [2][3] Regulatory and Market Challenges - Merck is facing pricing pressures and competition from generics as Keytruda's patent is set to expire in 2028, with potential government-led price negotiations as early as 2027 [1] - The company has not disclosed whether it has reached a pricing agreement with the government, but it has prepared sufficient Keytruda stock to mitigate potential tariff impacts [4] - Merck plans to invest over $9 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years to enhance domestic drug production capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, with consensus estimates for sales at $17.06 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $2.36. Earnings estimates for 2025 have slightly declined from $8.94 to $8.92 per share over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.92%. The most recent quarter showed a 5.97% surprise [3][4]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - After a weak first half, Merck anticipates growth in the second half, driven by oncology drugs like Keytruda, Animal Health, and new products, although this may be partially offset by lower sales of Gardasil in China and Japan [6][7]. Oncology Drug Performance - Keytruda is expected to drive significant sales growth, with consensus estimates for its sales at $8.4 billion, while internal estimates are slightly higher at $8.51 billion. The drug's sales are bolstered by its uptake in earlier-stage indications and continued momentum in metastatic indications [8][9]. Vaccine and Other Drug Performance - Sales of Gardasil are projected to decline due to reduced demand in China and Japan, with consensus estimates at $1.75 billion, while internal estimates are at $1.70 billion. Other vaccines have also seen declining sales [11][12]. - The diabetes franchise is facing challenges from lower demand and generic competition, impacting sales of Januvia/Janumet [14]. New Product Contributions - New drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive are contributing to sales growth, with Winrevair showing strong demand in the U.S. market and Capvaxive gaining traction in retail pharmacies [15][24]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Merck's stock has underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date loss of 11.5% compared to a 5.7% increase for the industry. However, the company's valuation appears attractive, trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9.42, lower than the industry average of 15.58 [17][20]. Investment Thesis - Merck has a robust portfolio with over six blockbuster drugs, primarily driven by Keytruda. The company has also expanded its pipeline significantly, with plans to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years [23][24]. - Despite concerns about dependency on Keytruda and challenges in the non-oncology business, Merck's strong revenue generation from its existing products supports a long-term investment perspective [26][29].