反内卷政策演进、化工龙头与液冷介质 20250827 摘要 石化化工行业面临政策调整，包括重大项目节能审查权限上收，新建煤 制甲醇项目暂停，以及石化产业规划布局方案的修订，旨在控制新增产 能、优化产业结构，并推动技术升级，实现高质量发展。 石化化工行业经历三年半下行周期后，正处于周期拐点，全球范围内出 现明显的去产能现象，如欧洲、韩国和日本均有关停乙烯及其他化工品 的计划，预示着供给端收缩，行业有望迎来复苏。 未来一至一年半内，石油和基础设施领域有望向上发展，尤其是龙头公 司，其固定资产显著增长，预示着下一轮景气高峰期业绩可能大幅提升， 可参考 2021 年业绩乘以 2 至 2.5 倍进行估计。 液冷技术在数据中心的应用前景广阔，特别是氟化学品在浸没式液冷中 需求巨大，预计 2028 年市场需求将达到 5 万吨以上，而目前供应量远 不能满足，中国企业有望填补海外企业退出后的市场空缺。 恒力集团虽受成品油与芳烃价格下行影响，盈利有所下降，但受益于一 体化生产模式和煤炭成本优势，现金流状况良好，且中国企业在成本上 具有竞争力，行业触底后有望进入上升阶段。 Q&A 近期国家在石化和煤化工行业出台了哪些重要政策？ 最 ...

智通财经APP获悉，湘财证券发布研报称，氨纶是一种性能优异的化学合成纤维，具有伸长率大、弹性 模量低、耐疲劳性好、密度小，耐腐蚀、抗老化等特点。在近年氨纶景气度较弱的情况下，行业落后产 能有望逐步退出，新增产能延期。需求端方面，未来随着消费升级，氨纶的渗透率、添加比例有望提 升，其需求量有望增长。氨纶供需格局有望向好，未来行业景气度有望改善。首次覆盖，给予行业"增 持"评级。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 氨纶是一种性能优异的化学合成纤维，具有伸长率大、弹性模量低、耐疲劳性好、密度小，耐腐蚀、抗 老化等特点，是一种综合性能优异的纺织原料。在织物中加入少许氨纶，就能显著改善织物性能，提高 织物的档次，是舒适、时尚的代名词。氨纶主要由PTMEG与MDI聚合而成，下游主要应用于各类纺织 产品，如运动服、游泳衣等。 在氨纶景气度较弱的情况下，行业落后产能退出，新增产能延期 供给端方面，根据华峰化学2024年报，我国是全球最大的氨纶生产国。但由于近年我国氨纶行业扩张较 快，行业供过于求，叠加成本端支撑较弱，氨纶价差处于历史底部区间，景气度较弱。在此背景下，行 业落后产能有望逐渐退出。根据中国聚氨酯工业协会，7月31日，韩国泰 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 韩国拟削减 25%石脑油产能，六部门部署规范光伏产业竞争秩序 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.中美"关税休战"再延长，1880 亿设备更新 补助资金下达 20250815 2.绿色液体燃料首批试点项目公式，制冷剂 价格涨势延续 20250808 3."反内卷"再催化，农药行业开启三年"正风 治卷"行动 20250801 4."反内卷"政策持续发力，《价格法》修订规 范市场价格秩序 20250725 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

行 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 24 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华化学 TDI 新装置投产，中国化学 国内单套规模最大粗苯加氢项目中交 投资要点： 本周行业主要动态： 万华化学 TDI 新装置投产。 万华化学 8 月 19 日公告，其福建工业园 新建 TDI 二期装置(36 万吨/年)已于近期建成投产，并产出合格产品。同时， 万华化学还披露，子公司匈牙利宝思德化学公司 MDI(40 万吨/年)、TDI(25 万吨/年)等一体化装置及相关配套装置于 7 月 23 日开始陆续停产检修。截 至目前，上述 TDI 装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产；MDI 装置待 复产后另行公告。公告称，按照年度检修计划，公司烟台产业园 30 万吨/ 年 TDI 装置及相关配套装置将于 8 月 19 日开始陆续停产检修，预计检修 40 天左右。万华化学全球最大的 MDI 和 TDI 供应商，截至 2024 年末，拥 有 TDI 产能 111 万吨/年。随着福建工业园新建 TDI 二期装置的投产，其 TDI 总产能进一步提升。（资料来源：中国化工报、万华化学） 中国化学国内单套规模最大粗苯加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][15]. Core Viewpoints - The company has experienced a prolonged decline in stock price since February 2021, with earnings expected to fluctuate downwards from 2022 to 2024, and a projected 25.1% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025. Currently, the company is at a low point in both performance and valuation. However, there are positive changes anticipated in the global and Chinese market environments, with the main products MDI/TDI expected to see an upturn in demand. The company has established a competitive moat in its petrochemical business, and a slowdown in capital expenditure may lead to sustained cash flow improvements. The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing" and "operating" to solidify its advantages and promote a recovery [3][6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Environment Changes - The global and Chinese chemical industry leaders are facing a challenging period, but there are signs of positive changes in supply dynamics. Increased operational pressures have led foreign companies like Shell and Dow to exit certain capacities, resulting in a continuous optimization of supply [7][33]. MDI Market Outlook - MDI, primarily used in home appliances and real estate insulation, is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics. The demand for MDI in China is supported by the home appliance sector, and potential interest rate cuts in the US may boost real estate demand. The global MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with significant barriers to entry and a projected recovery in demand [8][51][59]. TDI Market Outlook - TDI, used in the production of foams and curing agents, is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases. The domestic furniture industry's strong demand is expected to further drive TDI consumption [9][72]. Petrochemical Business - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through raw material advantages, with a successful launch of a new ethylene facility. The integration of the entire industrial chain is expected to significantly improve profitability in the petrochemical sector [10][12]. Fine Chemicals and New Materials - The company is focusing on its fine chemicals and new materials segment, which includes various high-value-added business units. The acceleration of self-developed technologies is expected to yield promising future growth [11][12]. Management and Cost Control - The company is implementing cost reduction and capital expenditure control measures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency. A planned investment of 25.24 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a significant reduction in overall investment scale, which may lead to improved cash flow and a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [12][46].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, Zhuoyue New Energy, and Ruile New Materials [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of 2025, particularly those benefiting from AI capital investments and macroeconomic stability [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is expected to open, with high demand anticipated to continue, suggesting a focus on large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - Safety incidents in the chemical industry are prompting increased scrutiny, which may lead to a rise in the agricultural chemicals sector as non-compliant capacities are phased out [3]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Performance - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a major supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements due to rising server shipments, projecting an EPS of 1.53 in 2025 [4]. - Hailide, a leader in industrial polyester yarn, is also recommended, with an EPS forecast of 0.37 for 2025 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is noted for its capacity growth and new product launches, with an EPS of 3.16 expected in 2025 [4]. - Ruile New Materials anticipates a 69.93% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in its pharmaceutical segment [1][4]. Market Trends - The chemical industry index rose by 2.46% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. - Key chemical products such as liquid chlorine, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine prices rising by 92% [20][18]. Sub-industry Analysis - The polyester filament market is experiencing price fluctuations, with an average price of 6,735 CNY/ton for POY and 7,050 CNY/ton for FDY [22]. - The tire industry shows a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.06% and semi-steel tire rates at 69.11% [31]. - The refrigerant market remains stable, with R22 prices holding firm between 39,500 and 40,500 CNY/ton [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sai Lun Tire [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 22.06%) and sulfur (up 5.26%), while synthetic ammonia and butanone experienced substantial declines [4][20]. - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities due to the impact of renewed U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting international oil prices [6][20]. - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - Key products with notable price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, sulfur, and urea, while synthetic ammonia and butanone saw significant price drops [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a challenging market environment [23][24]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report notes fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $65.85 per barrel and WTI at $62.80 per barrel, reflecting a downward trend [6][20]. - The chemical product prices have shown some rebound, but many products still face price declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [23][24]. Company Focus and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [8][23]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic fertilizer companies to meet local demand, with specific recommendations for companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yang Feng [23][24].

Group 1 - Company subsidiary BorsodChem Zrt. in Hungary has begun maintenance shutdowns for its integrated MDI (400,000 tons/year) and TDI (250,000 tons/year) facilities starting from July 23, 2025 [1] - The TDI facility's maintenance has been completed and is back to normal production, while the MDI facility will announce its resumption separately [1] - The company's Yantai industrial park TDI facility (300,000 tons/year) is scheduled for maintenance starting August 19, 2025, expected to last around 40 days [1] Group 2 - The new TDI Phase II facility (360,000 tons/year) at the Fujian industrial park has recently been completed and has started producing qualified products [1]