Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of 1,570 key projects in Fujian Province for 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan [1] - Among the key projects, there are 59 petrochemical projects, with 37 under construction, 20 newly started, and 2 in preparation [1] - The Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance the quality and efficiency of project construction, ensuring the province's economic leadership [1] Group 2 - The Fujian Gulei 1.5 million tons/year ethylene and downstream processing project is currently under construction [2] - Other notable projects under construction include the Zhangzhou Gulei carbon five and carbon nine separation project and the Fuzhou Wanjing Petrochemical propane dehydrogenation project [2] - New projects include the Fuzhou Zhongjing New Materials 800,000 tons/year synthetic ammonia project and the Lianjiang polyamide industry chain project [2] Group 3 - The article lists various projects in different stages, including those in preparation, under construction, and newly started, across multiple cities in Fujian [3][4] - Key projects in the pipeline include the Quanzhou Huian Sinopec crude oil heavy oil project and the Zhangzhou Xinyuan annual production of 30,000 tons of lithium battery new materials project [3] - The focus on upgrading and optimizing existing facilities is evident in projects like the Shaowu City Shaohua Chemical production facility upgrade and relocation project [4]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4066 | -0.25 | -0.44 | -1.27 | | 深证综指 | 2650 | -0.04 | 1.21 | -1.27 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.59 | -3.66 | 12.69 | | 中盘指数 | -0.12 | 2.43 | 27.18 | | 小盘指数 | -0.09 | 3.15 | 20.55 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油服工程 | 3.75 | 25.48 | 31.12 | | 饰品 | 3.1 | 14.09 | 4.75 | | 化学纤维 | 2.71 | 4.23 | 24.5 | | 化学制品 | 2.63 | 6.2 | 24.95 | | 电 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com - 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 07 日 Q4 成本抬升叠加减值影响，化工盈利 阶段性承压，春旺或开启新一轮周期 看好 ——基础化工 2025 年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the technology growth and cyclical sectors, with electronic stocks leading the recommendations at 12.83% [1] - The media industry saw a significant increase in recommendation by 66.88% compared to January, while the automotive sector's recommendation dropped over 33% [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leading optical module manufacturer, received joint recommendations from 9 brokerages, driven by its strong position in the AI computing sector and expected profit doubling by 2025 [3][4] - Zijin Mining, recommended by 8 brokerages, is projected to achieve a record net profit exceeding 50 billion by 2025, benefiting from high international gold prices and strong copper demand [4] - Haiguang Information, also favored by 8 brokerages, reported a 90% profit increase in the first three quarters of the previous year, supported by national initiatives for computing infrastructure [4] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai returned to the "gold stock" list after 5 months, receiving recommendations from 6 brokerages, with a stock price increase of over 10% recently [4] - Wanhua Chemical, favored by 7 brokerages, is expected to see a rebound in MDI prices and significant earnings growth as economic recovery strengthens [4] - China Ping An, supported by 6 brokerages, reported a 46% increase in new business value, indicating positive transformation prospects [6] - China Jushi, a global leader in fiberglass, is also favored for its strong profit growth and critical role in the electronics supply chain [6] - Foster, a leader in photovoltaic film, is recommended by 4 brokerages, with expectations of exceeding market growth in solar installations by 2025 [6] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience volatility before the Spring Festival, with better performance anticipated post-holiday as policies are implemented [7] - Historical data shows a 77% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first 10 trading days before the Spring Festival, with an average increase of 1.9% [7] - In January, nearly 70% of the 307 recommended stocks saw price increases, with some brokerages achieving over 16% returns on their recommended stock portfolios [7] Group 4 - The market's trading activity is concentrated around AI computing, resource commodities like gold and copper, and a select few consumer stocks with strong earnings certainty [9] - The flow of funds is oscillating between "technology" and "resources," seeking companies with realizable performance and compelling narratives [9] - The spring market window remains open, but structural differentiation is more pronounced than ever [9]

February 2, 2026 07:11 AM GMT China Chemicals | Asia Pacific A Long Tail Recovery, Not Instant | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Wanhua Chemical (600309.SS) | From | To | | Rating | Overweight | Equal-weight | | The recent segment rally was driven by liquidity rotations, rather | | | | M February 2, 2026 07:11 AM GMT | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | China Chemicals Asia Pacific | Kaylee Xu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | A Long Tail Recovery, Not | Kaylee.Xu@morganstanle ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to experience a significant decline in new supply in 2026 and 2027, leading to an upward cycle due to price synergy effects and the exit of overseas capacity [1][2] - The tightening of national carbon emission targets will impact the approval of oil and infrastructure projects, pushing chemical companies towards green transformation [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Major chemical companies have made substantial fixed asset investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which are expected to translate into profits in the coming years, with some companies potentially having P/E ratios as low as 3-4 times [1][5] - The PX market is operating at high capacity utilization, with expected profits around 1,000 CNY/ton being sustainable due to the rapid digestion of new capacity [1][9] - The olefin market is projected to improve long-term, supported by national policies, with an expected upward cycle from 2027 to 2029 [1][11] Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Fixed assets and construction projects have significantly increased, with potential profits at the bottom of the cycle estimated at 15-16 billion CNY, and central profit levels reaching around 30 billion CNY [3][20] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8-9 times, indicating substantial profit potential as the cycle rebounds [20] Longbai Group - Fixed assets have grown significantly, with potential profits estimated at 12 billion CNY based on historical averages [21][22] - The company’s market cap corresponds to a P/E ratio of around 9 times, suggesting a favorable valuation [22] Rongsheng Petrochemical - Fixed asset investments have been significantly higher than those of Hengli Petrochemical, with potential peak profits estimated between 20 billion to 30 billion CNY [23][24] - Future profitability will depend on the market conditions for ethylene and its downstream products [24] Hengli Petrochemical - The company is seen as stable and a key indicator of product reversals, with significant overseas expansion potential [14][13] - Expected profits could reach 60-70 billion CNY if current favorable conditions persist [13] Shenghong Petrochemical - The company has not fully benefited from industry conditions but has significant upside potential, with expected profits from new energy sectors [12] Other Important Insights - The chemical industry is currently characterized by a shorter duration from the bottom of the down cycle to the upturn, aided by price synergy effects and high industry concentration [4] - The large refining industry is at the tail end of its capacity cycle, with cash flow expected to improve significantly [8] - The agricultural chemicals sector faces oversupply issues, with key signals from agricultural product prices [28] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026, with prices potentially fluctuating between 70-80 USD per barrel [15][16] - OPEC is likely to maintain production levels, indicating a slow growth cycle for oil supply, which could stabilize prices [17] - The refrigerant market is expected to see price increases, although the rate of increase may slow down [33][34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the chemical industry's dynamics, company-specific insights, and broader market trends.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

投资策略 | 专题报告 化工和农业，涨价乘风起 地缘政治和产业转型背景下的周期股行情 研究结论 ⚫ 策略研判：为何重点看好化工和农业？ 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产能统计遗误、畜禽疫病大规模爆发、海外 政策变动及新兴国家发展形势变化影响、油价大幅波动、假设条件变化影响测算结果 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 张陈 | 执业证书编号：S0860526010004 | | --- | --- | | | zhangchen2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | | niji@orientsec.c ...

截至2026年1月30日 11:20，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌2.55%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恩捷股份领 涨4.25%，瑞丰新材上涨0.34%，宝丰能源上涨0.25%；华峰化学领跌，和邦生物、藏格矿业跟跌。 长期以来，传统化工行业因无序扩产导致产能严重过剩，成为压制盈利的核心症结。2025–2026年，供 给端迎来根本性变革：国家出台《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确遏制盲目投 资、推动落后产能有序退出，各地配套政策同步落地。在此引导下，行业自发开启"反内卷"模式——企 业主动安排装置检修、收缩低效产能。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源、云天化、金发科技，前十大权 重股合计占比45.31%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金(013527)关注化工板块投资机遇。 国海证券指出，展望2026年，中国化工行业推行反内卷，化工有望迎来景气上行周期 ...

MDITDI 专家交流：未来供需及价格变化如何展望？ 20260129 摘要 2025 年国内 MDI 总产能达 550 万吨，聚合 MDI 需求约 200 万吨，纯 MDI 约 100 万吨。出口量同比下降 30%至 80 万吨，进口量同比增长 30%至 10 万吨以上。美国关税政策对出口造成冲击，尤其是 4 月和 7 月，对终端产品和 MDI 出口影响显著。 2025 年国内 MDI 价格从年初 18,000 元/吨降至年底 14,000 元/吨左右， 但成本支撑较强。原材料苯价格稳定下跌，万华化学生产成本在 8,600- 9,100 元/吨，市场平均售价在 15,000-18,000 元/吨，毛利空间尚存。 2025 年全球 TDI 总产能 370 万吨，总需求 280 万吨。国内产能 200 万吨，开工率近 70%，需求约 90 万吨，受房地产市场影响同比下降 5%。出口表现亮眼，达 55 万吨，同比增长 50%。 2025 年 TDI 价格波动大，从年初高点 15,000 元/吨，受需求和关税影 响降至 11,000-11,500 元/吨，旺季因工厂检修涨至 18,000 元/吨，最 终回落至 14 ...