Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping the investment logic in cyclical industries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [4] - The performance improvement in cyclical sectors is sustainable, with a 23% year-on-year increase in the exit scale of backward production capacity in industries like chemicals and non-ferrous metals as of Q3 2025 [4] Group 2: Drivers of Market Style Shift - Three main supports for the current market style switch include: 1. The technology sector's significant cumulative increase, with the electronics industry up 45% and communication equipment over 38% year-to-date as of November 2025, far exceeding the 14.7% rise of the CSI 300 index [6] 2. Institutional holdings in the technology sector nearing historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings surpassing 40.16% [6] 3. Clear policy signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the chemical industry, enhancing the certainty of supply-side contraction in cyclical industries [6] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The core logic for supply-side improvement in the chemical industry is driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided exit," with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [8][11] - The chemical industry has significant advantages over traditional cyclical industries in capacity optimization efficiency, industry collaboration, and high-end transformation paths [12] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The recovery in demand for the chemical industry is supported by both domestic and overseas factors, with domestic engines including improved real estate conditions and a resurgence in textile exports [13][14] - China's chemical product sales have maintained the top global position, with sales amounting to approximately €2.24 trillion in 2023, accounting for 43.1% of global sales [16][17] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in the Chemical Sector - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the anti-involution wave include: 1. Selecting leading companies with strong management and cost control [20] 2. Focusing on three reversal areas: petrochemicals, coal chemicals, and polyester filament + PTA, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [21][22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector overall experienced a decline of 7.47% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, ranking 29th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.57 percentage points [4][22] - The report highlights a continued trend of divergence in the chemical industry for 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance was notably poor, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.90% and the ChiNext Index by 6.15% during the same period [4][22] - The report indicates that the chemical sub-sectors showed varied performance, with the least decline in refining chemicals (-0.58%) and the most significant decline in fluorinated chemicals (-11.00%) [23] Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming quota policies for refrigerants, which are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle starting in 2024, with a continuous reduction in supply for second-generation refrigerants [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is identified as a global movement, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to enhance the valuation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is experiencing accelerated domestic industrialization, driven by the shift of downstream industries to domestic production and the need for supply chain security [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a potential recovery in prices [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]

《有机硅、R134a 价格上行，持续关注反 内卷 ——基础化工行业周报（2025.11.8- 2025.11.14）》 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 市场行情走势 ——2025 年 11 月 20 日 《磷化工景气高涨，持续关注反内卷 —— 基 础 化 工 行 业 周 报 （2025.11.1- 2025.11.7）》 | [行业Table_Industry] : | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | shzqdatemark 2025年11月25日 | | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 于庭泽 | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040001 | | 分析师: | 郭吟冬 | | SAC 编号: | S0870525110001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 ——2025 年 11 月 11 日 《VE、VA 涨幅居前，超高分子量聚乙烯进 展积极 ——基础化工行业周报 （2025.10.25-2025.10.31）》 ——2025 年 11 月 05 日 有机硅、MDI ...

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Price Trends**: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - **Supply Dynamics**: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - **Demand Outlook**: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - **Export Challenges**: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - **Pricing Divergence**: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - **Future Price Projections**: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - **Additives Pricing**: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - **Market Conditions**: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - **Capacity Additions**: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - **Export Recovery**: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - **Risks in the Chemical Sector**: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - **Analyst Insights**: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]

风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 看好（维持） 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC 等产品出口增长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业 中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)， MDI 龙头 万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中，相关标的包括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等；草酸 行业中，建议关注华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华安证券指出，基础化工和化学制品行业呈现多元化发展趋势。三代制冷剂进入高景气周期，供给 端受配额政策限制，需求端受益于热泵、冷链及东南亚市场增长。合成生物学在能源结构调整下迎来发 展机遇，生物基材料成本下降推动需求爆发。COC聚合物国产化进程加速，光学和包装领域应用拓 展。轻烃化工成为全球烯烃行业趋势，低碳排特性契合碳中和目标。钾肥价格触底回升，国际巨头减产 及粮食种植意愿提升改善供需。MDI行业供给格局向好，高技术壁垒和需求稳健支撑长期发展。 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及农药、化 肥、涂料等化学工业子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工领域内龙头企业及成长性良好公 司的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to see revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight increase in profit margins in Q3 2025 [1] - The industry is experiencing stable demand, primarily driven by global supply, with specific focus on certain sub-industries for potential recovery [1] - The construction projects in progress are showing a significant decline in growth rate, while fixed asset scale is increasing year-on-year [4] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 1.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and a net profit of 114 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 582.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of 38.3 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year [3] - The overall net profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 7.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand remains stable, with global supply dominating in areas such as sucralose, pesticides, MDI, and amino acids [1] - Domestic demand is driving growth in sectors like refrigerants and fertilizers, helping to mitigate tariff impacts [1] - Sub-industries such as organic silicon and spandex are expected to recover first due to capacity being put into production [1] Group 3: Construction and Fixed Assets - The growth rate of construction projects in progress has significantly declined, with Q3 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% [4] - The total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 1.5 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [4] - The fixed asset growth rate turned positive in Q4 2023, indicating a recovery trend in capital expenditure [4]

Group 1 - The chemical ETF (516020) showed weak performance, with an intraday drop of 3.1% and a trading volume of 117 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Xinzhou Bang, Duofluor, and Tianci Materials experienced the largest declines, with drops of 9.41%, 9.32%, and 9.27% respectively [1] - Conversely, Guangdong Hongda, Lanxiao Technology, and Tongcheng New Materials performed relatively well, with increases of 0.36%, 0.29%, and 0.08% respectively [1] Group 2 - Wanhua Chemical's MDI capacity expansion project in Fujian has recently completed, increasing its capacity to 1.5 million tons per year, reinforcing its global leadership in the polyurethane sector [1] - Juhua Group is advancing its "three zeros" project for digital transformation, enhancing safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency metrics through a unified data platform [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicates structural opportunities in the basic chemical and chemical products industry, with a 20% coordinated production cut in the caprolactam industry and price increases [1] Group 3 - The chemical ETF and its linked funds passively track a specialized chemical index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Wanhua Chemical, Yalku Co., Tianci Materials, Juhua Co., and others [2]