Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

来源：Mask的小酒馆 化工涨价潮真的要来了，而这是一个很大的机会。 化工我们之前在文章里面说过要给50%的仓位。 现在化工ETF（516020，场外联接基金：012538）在这一段时间里面的走势都是一骑绝尘，目前看有 30%+了，而且这只化工ETF最新规模43.92亿元，创历史新高，目前是沪市最大化工ETF。当然，后面 我们也反复提了化工： 化工上涨的原因很简单，那就是涨价。 2025年12月，万华化学和全球化工巨头巴斯夫、亨斯迈、陶氏，密集上调了MDI和TDI的价格。 有人说，这是国内搞"反内卷"，大家商量好一起涨价。 这个理解，太浅了。 巴斯夫是德国的，亨斯迈是美国的，陶氏也是美国的。这些跨国巨头会跟着中国的政策走？人家的定价 逻辑，跟中国国内政策根本不在一个频道上。 真正的原因是：全球化工的供给端，出了大问题。 一、化工为什么涨？因为全球产能正在"消失" 这轮化工涨价，核心原因就一个：供给少了。 你可能会问，产能怎么会凭空消失？ 不是凭空消失，是有人主动退出了。 先说欧洲。 2026年1月，埃克森美孚宣布将于2026年2月永久关停英国苏格兰莫斯莫兰83万吨的蒸汽裂解装置。 注意这个词：永久关停。 不是 ...

化工-关注反内卷低估值龙头及供需边际改善板块 20260108 摘要 化工行业目前处于景气底部，受全球制造业 PMI 疲软和需求增速放缓影 响，化工 PPI 表现较弱。未来若美联储降息或国内促消费政策落地，有 望推动需求侧修复，利好化工 PPI 回升。 油价低于煤价导致化工品价格缺乏成本支撑，国内地产和美国高抵押贷 款利率抑制需求。若美国持续降息至抵押贷款利率低于 4%，海外地产 有望修复，带动国内建材相关标的受益。 全球化工行业格局变化，欧美国家销售额占比下降，中国占比提升至全 球半壁江山。欧洲受能源成本影响去工业化，利好中国化工企业，一旦 景气反转，中国企业将拥有更大价格弹性。 国内石油石化等基础产业固定资产投资完成额同比转负，预示新增投资 减少，未来供不应求时 PPI 价格将回升。上市公司在建工程同比连续三 季度负增长，或预示 2027 年行业反转。 化工行业整体 ROE 较低，但多数子板块估值便宜。四季度反内卷行情带 动部分龙头股 PB 估值修复，机构持仓比例有望逐步回升。看好反内卷 策略，核心资产是推荐对象。 Q&A 2025 年化工行业的整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势和变化？ 2025 年化工行业经 ...

2026 年度化工策略-新材料大有可为，"反内卷"下周期 进入右侧 20260107 摘要 锂电材料市场虽有回调，但需求仍可能超预期上涨。玻纤行业与化工行 业逻辑相似，2026 年业绩确定性较高，中国巨石粗纱供给增长低于需 求，中材科技锂电隔膜价格已现拐点。 化工行业资本开支和固定资产投资下降，显示供给端变化较少。化纤类 资产整体供需平衡表向好，氨纶、涤纶、有机硅等品种开工率高。推荐 中游核心资产龙头白马股，如万华化学和华鲁恒升。 期底部的中游核心资产，如万华化学和华鲁恒升等公司。价值主线则主要是资 源品。 锂电材料领域有哪些值得关注的细分市场？ Q&A 过去半个月化工行业的行情表现如何？其核心驱动力是什么？ 过去半个月，化工行业整体行情表现强劲，主要集中在中游核心资产。我们认 为其核心驱动力在于低盈利、低估值和低配置下机构的主动增配机会。此外， 这些中游核心资产相较于 2021 年有显著的产能扩张，即便不考虑乐观的价格 假设，其盈利也有很大的上升空间。 化工和新材料领域的年度策略有哪些核心主线？ 核心资产如万华化学和华鲁恒升，即使不考虑价格上涨，产能扩张也带 来盈利增长空间，中泰证券年度策略聚焦成长（AI、 ...

1月6日，化工板块涨势如虹，君正集团、恒力石化涨超7%，荣盛石化、恒逸石化、万华化学等多 股涨逾6%。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后持续拉升，截至发稿涨超3%。资金强 势入场，化工ETF（516020）最近5个交易日持续吸金，合计资金净流入超3.5亿元，其最新基金规模也 冲高至38.93亿元，再刷规模新高。 消息面上，万华化学自2025年12月起连续上调MDI/TDI等核心产品全球售价，与巴斯夫、陶氏等国 际巨头同步调价，行业集中检修及原料成本上涨推动聚氨酯价格走强；同期中国硫酸工业协会联合磷复 肥协会召开保供稳价会议，明确硫酸资源优先保障磷肥生产，以稳定春耕农资供应。 展望后市，中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来 及海外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加 美国降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化 工行业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 公开资料显示，化工ETF（516020）及其联接基金（012537） ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with no need to wait for significant improvements in fundamentals before investing. Stock prices often lead the market, indicating potential investment opportunities when future fundamental changes are anticipated [2][4]. Key Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in traditional cyclical industries and technology materials, particularly in AI-related sectors such as energy storage materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) and storage materials (e.g., Yake Technology) [1][6]. - Recommended leading companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., due to their low valuations and high profit elasticity [1][8]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Strongly recommended as a top investment choice due to its outlier effect and continuous growth catalysts. Expected revenue for 2026 is projected to reach 400 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 16 billion yuan [1][12][14]. - The company has a significant profit increase potential with every 1,000 yuan increase in MDI and TDI prices, translating to a net profit increase of 3.4 billion yuan [12][14]. Hualu Hengsheng - The company is expected to achieve annualized quarterly performance exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2026, supported by multi-category layout and technological upgrades [1][17][18]. Dongcai Technology - Notable for its advantages in new energy materials, with expectations to turn losses into profits as the overall profitability in the new energy sector improves [1][13][15]. Baofeng Energy - Expected to maintain stable annual profits between 12 billion to 13 billion yuan following the release of new capacity at its Ningxia base. The company benefits from the cyclical changes in the coal chemical industry and has diversified its product offerings [3][19][20]. Industry Trends and Signals - The potassium fertilizer industry is expected to experience tight supply and demand in 2026, maintaining high prices, while the phosphate market outlook remains stable with manageable supply increases [3][22][23]. - The tire industry is impacted by EU anti-dumping policies, prompting leading companies to expand overseas to increase market share [3][27][28]. - The spandex industry is at a cyclical bottom, with potential supply-side clearing effects anticipated due to the bankruptcy of a major player, which could improve market conditions [3][34][35]. Additional Insights - Investment in underperforming sectors is justified as they have likely reflected most negative factors in their stock prices, presenting potential for positive marginal changes [11]. - The refrigerant industry, while considered an "old story," shows strong certainty and potential for long-term investment due to ongoing price support [24]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases driven by domestic demand and external supply constraints, with companies like Dongyue showing significant elasticity [25][26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a range of investment opportunities across various sectors within the chemical industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and emerging trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both cyclical recovery and technological advancements when making investment decisions.

聊聊化工的涨价逻辑。 消息面上，万华化学自2025年12月起连续上调MDI/TDI等核心产品全球售价，与巴斯夫、陶氏等国际巨 头同步调价，行业集中检修及原料成本上涨推动聚氨酯价格走强；同期中国硫酸工业协会联合磷复肥协 会召开保供稳价会议，明确硫酸资源优先保障磷肥生产，以稳定春耕农资供应。 从基本面上来看，行业在经历约三年半的下行周期后，资本开支高峰落幕，供给扩张放缓，同时"反内 卷"政策助力产能出清和价格协同，加速了盈利修复。 周二（1月6日），化工ETF大涨超3.3%，创下22年以来新高。 从化工ETF（516020）份额变化来看，该ETF自25年8月以来份额增长明显，创下历史新高。规模上， 化工ETF最新规模也冲高至38.93亿元，再刷规模新高。 需求端，海外降息周期预期提振传统需求，新能源、储能及AI等新兴领域则带来了新的增长动力。 化工与有色金属的上涨逻辑有相似之处，都受益于供给约束和新兴需求，但化工的供给优化更多源于政 策引导和行业自律，而有色的驱动更侧重于资源稀缺性，两者并非简单复制。 从业绩上来看，化工ETF第三大权重股天赐材料前两天发了2025全年业绩预告。公司预计2025年归母净 利润11- ...

化工板块今天表现活跃，君正集团涨超9%，兴发集团上涨8.89%，恒力石化上涨8.31%，板块热度升温。 化工ETF、化工龙头ETF、化工ETF嘉实、化工ETF天弘、化工50ETF涨超3%。 兴业证券认为，2026年化工行业将迎来周期复苏与产业升级的双重机遇。化工品底部区间运行已达三年，行业在 建工程增速持续下滑，新产能投放接近尾声。展望2026，"十五五"开局之年国内稳增长政策有望发力，美联储进 入降息周期，化工品传统需求有望温和复苏；"反内卷"浪潮的助推下，周期拐点有望加速来临，具备全球竞争优 势的化工核心资产有望迎来盈利与估值修复。农药市场由"去库存"步入"去产能"阶段，龙头强者恒强，创制药开 发将成为国内农药产业升级的必由之路。贸易壁垒从危到机，以轮胎为代表的化工制造出海将迎来新一轮红利。 全球减碳政策频出，AI产业持续繁荣，带来高速增长的新兴需求，新材料与新技术的发展亦赋予化工材料产业升 级良机。 化工ETF跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，覆盖氟化工、煤化工、钛白粉、化肥等多个化工细分领域，权重股包 含万华化学、盐湖股份、巨化股份、宝丰能源等行业龙头股，既能捕捉细分领域的增长机会，又能有效分散单一 企业 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues its strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day winning streak, reaching its highest level in over ten years since July 2015, closing at 4083.67 points, up 1.50% [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,326 billion, an increase of 2,651 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks rising and nearly 150 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Key sectors such as insurance, energy metals, fertilizers, securities, and aerospace saw significant gains, while the beauty and personal care sector was the only one to decline [2] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the market's rise to external market recovery, a stable policy environment, and increased capital inflow, indicating a shift in market sentiment from volatility to positivity [6][7] - The financial and real estate sectors are stabilizing investor confidence, with continuous net purchases of ETFs reflecting long-term capital increasing its stake in core assets [6][7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's GDP growth rate will exceed market consensus, recommending overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a 15% to 20% annual increase in the stock market for 2026 and 2027 [7] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with stocks like Huayin Securities and Huashan Securities hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 6% [8] - The brokerage sector's performance is driven by a significant valuation adjustment since September 2025, coupled with increased capital inflow and regulatory easing, leading to a rebound in sentiment [10] - Analysts believe that the brokerage sector has clear opportunities for growth due to active market trading and supportive policies for leading firms [10] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper, is showing strong performance, with Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining seeing significant price increases [12] - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to declining global inventories, improving economic expectations, and rising demand from high-copper industries in China [15] - Analysts predict a turning point in the supply-demand relationship for refined copper around 2026, with optimistic demand forecasts for both the U.S. and China [15] Group 5 - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with companies like Junzheng Group and Hengli Petrochemical seeing substantial gains [17] - Prices for key chemical products have rebounded, driven by concentrated inventory replenishment demand ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a clearer signal of industry recovery [19] - Analysts expect the chemical industry to reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, supported by strong policy expectations and a shift in supply-demand dynamics [19]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.03% as of the latest report, reflecting a robust market trend [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Junzheng Group, which surged over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical up over 6%, and Hengyi Petrochemical increasing by over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by price increases in core products like MDI/TDI by Wanhua Chemical, which plans to raise prices in line with international giants [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in performance and valuation due to the "anti-involution" policy, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in construction projects among basic chemical companies [3] - Demand is being supported by domestic consumption and resilient exports, indicating a recovery in the supply-demand balance [3] - Analysts predict that the chemical industry may reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, driven by policy expectations and a potential increase in demand as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, providing investors with strong investment opportunities [4] - The ETF also diversifies its holdings across various sub-sectors, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and other chemical leaders [4]