作者丨董鹏 编辑丨朱益民 近日，盐湖股份（000792.SZ）的2026年盈利预期获得密集上调。 公司近期披露的业绩预告显示，预计2025年归母净利润为82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比增长77.78%至 90.65%，超出此前市场预期。 业绩预告发布前，卖方对其2026年盈利预期区间为62—82亿元；业绩预告发布后，卖方盈利预期值则普 遍上调至100亿元，光大证券、申万宏源更是给出了120亿元左右的盈利预期。 这背后，是潜在的钾、锂行业景气度提升，以及公司本身确定性较强的新增产能投放、资产注入计划。 仅以公司锂盐业务为例，公司去年9月末投产的4万吨盐湖提锂项目有望大规模释放，并且还有五矿盐湖 后续并表所带来的0.8万吨权益产能，公司权益产能有望从2025年的2万吨（未包括4万吨自建项目）提 升至6.9万吨，权益产能增速明显大于名义产能增速。 此外，本周碳酸锂现货均价已经升至13.8万元/吨，远月期货合约则是一度逼近15万元/吨，接下来如若 锂价出现超预期式上涨，卖方给出的盈利预期可能会进一步上修。 盈利百亿一致预期 对于公司业绩增长，盐湖股份指出，"氯化钾产品价格较上年同期有所上升，碳酸锂产品价格虽波动较 大 ...

Group 1: Potash Market Overview - The domestic potash market remained stable during the New Year holiday, with no significant fluctuations observed [1][3] - Chloride potash prices are supported by tight supply and gradually recovering demand, maintaining high levels [1][3] - Domestic potash production companies are entering maintenance periods, limiting capacity release and further reducing output [1][3] Group 2: Pricing and Supply Dynamics - The official arrival price for 60% powder crystal chloride potash in Qinghai is at 3100 yuan per ton, with market circulation prices ranging from 3150 to 3200 yuan [1][3] - Port inventory of imported potash remains between 2.4 million to 2.45 million tons, with supply tightness affecting both imported and domestic potash availability [1][3] - Prices for port 62% white potash are between 3150 and 3500 yuan, with low prices serving as guidance and high prices seeing limited transactions [1][3] Group 3: Sulfate Potash Market Conditions - The sulfate potash market prices are stable but under pressure due to high overall industry costs, with many processing sulfate potash companies operating at a loss [2][4] - The operating rate for processing sulfate potash plants is around 45%, with previous inventory pressures easing [2][4] - The price for 52% fully water-soluble powder sulfate potash is approximately 3950 yuan, with sales conditions being average and cost pressures evident [2][4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall demand for potash remains with potential for release, but the tight supply situation is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, providing price support [2][4] - Policy regulation pressures are significant, and as supply conditions improve, prices may face downward adjustment pressure [2][4] - Industry insiders predict that potash prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, with limited volatility expected [2][4]