在今年2月，Adobe甚至重磅推出基于AI视频生成器(类似OpenAI Sora等文生视频竞争对手)的单独"AI+创意软件"订阅服务，试图与 OpenAI、Runway 等竞争。 "某种程度上，市场不知为何仍然将Adobe归为面对AI压力之下的失败者。"来自DA Davidson的分析师 Gil Luria 在接受媒体采访时表示。"但是我们认 为这是对技术的误解。" "AI全家桶"已成为驱动Adobe创意软件销售额增长的核心引擎 智通财经APP获悉，提供Photoshop、Illustrator等热门创意软件产品的科技巨头Adobe(ADBE.US)公布的最新季度业绩数据，以及给出的本季度销售额展 望均高于华尔街分析师平均预期。但是从公布业绩后的盘后股价走势来看，投资者们仍然对于这家全面刮起"AI+创意软件"风暴的软件行业龙头能否凭 借"嵌入AI大模型的Adobe创意软件全家桶"彻底击败专注人工智能应用软件的新锐公司的竞品市场份额——比如OpenAI Sora、Runway等，持怀疑态 度。 该公司在周四美股盘后公布的业绩声明中表示，预计截至8月的2025财年第三财季整体销售额将达到58.8亿美元至59.3亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of Palantir Technologies due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and highlights two other AI stocks, Salesforce and Adobe, that are expected to outperform Palantir in the near future [1][2][3]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir has seen a remarkable stock increase of 1,630% since December 2022, with a current market cap exceeding $300 billion [2]. - The company's financial results are strong, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 39% in the first quarter and an operating margin of 44% [6]. - Despite excellent operating results, Palantir's stock is considered overvalued, trading at more than 75 times the management's revenue outlook for 2025 and 175 times EBITDA expectations for the next 12 months [7][8]. Salesforce - Salesforce is enhancing its enterprise software solutions with AI through its Agentforce platform, which has generated around $100 million in annual recurring revenue shortly after launch [9][10]. - The company expects total sales to exceed $41 billion this year, with an operating margin of 34% [10]. - Salesforce stock trades at just 6 times management's revenue guidance, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, and analysts have a median price target of $355, indicating a potential 35% upside [13]. Adobe - Adobe has integrated AI innovations into its creative and marketing software, leading to increased pricing and customer acquisition [14][15]. - The company reported $125 million in annual recurring revenue directly from AI services, expecting this to double by year-end, and $3.5 billion in AI-influenced annual recurring revenue across its portfolio [16]. - Adobe stock trades for about 7 times management's estimate for 2025 revenue, with a forward P/E below 20, and analysts have a median price target of $477.50, suggesting a 19% upside [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's stock has increased by 19% in a month due to its focus on Generative AI and innovative portfolio, but faces challenges from competition and monetization issues [1][3] Company Performance - Adobe's AI business is small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, with Microsoft benefiting from Azure AI services and Alphabet from its AI infrastructure [2] - Adobe shares have underperformed compared to Microsoft and DocuSign, which returned 24.9% and 20.9% respectively, while Adobe outperformed Alphabet's 8.2% return [3] Valuation Metrics - Adobe's stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 7.28X, higher than the sector average of 6.14X and competitors like Salesforce and DocuSign [6] AI Portfolio Development - Adobe has expanded its AI offerings with products like Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aimed at enhancing marketing collaboration [9] - The company plans to monetize Firefly through new Creative Cloud offerings and is integrating AI across its portfolio, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] Financial Guidance - Adobe's AI business is projected to grow from over $125 million in Q1 FY25, expected to double by the end of FY25 [11] - For FY25, Adobe anticipates Digital Media segment revenues between $17.25 billion and $17.40 billion, with total revenue guidance between $23.30 billion and $23.55 billion [12][13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY25 earnings is $20.36 per share, reflecting a 10.53% growth over FY24, although it has seen a decline in estimates recently [14] - The estimate for Q2 FY25 earnings is $4.96 per share, suggesting a 10.71% growth from the previous year [16]

作者 | Simple Investment Ideas 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Adobe（ NASDAQ： ADBE ）长期以来一直是创意软件领域的佼佼者，这使得该公司能够对其 Photoshop 和 Premiere Pro 等行业标准工具收取额外费用。然而，该公司的地位正受到日益 复杂 的人工智能图像和视频生成工具的严重威胁。OpenAI 的 4o 图像生成突破 是人工智能浪潮日益 高涨的最新例证，凸显了人工智能工具与 Adobe 专业套件之间的差距正在缩小。这一变化对 Adobe 的商业模式构成了重大威胁，因为它削弱了 Adobe 的定价能力和长期差异化。随着这些 人工智能媒体的创新步伐和开放程度不断提高，Adobe 的竞争护城河可能会被削弱。 OpenAI 最新的图像生成器模型成功运用了 自回归 ，相较于上一代 AI 媒体创作工具，实现了显 著的阶跃式改进。该工具能够根据指令生成高保真图像，这使得其人气飙升。过去需要昂贵的软 件许可证或订阅才能完成的工作，现在只需极低的成本即可完成。OpenAI 4o 图像生成工具的迅 速流行凸显了这一威胁。事实上，OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman ...