Core Insights - The holiday shopping season of 2025 highlighted the resilience of consumer demand despite economic concerns, with shoppers prioritizing value and convenience [1][4] - Retailers adapted to changing consumer behaviors by enhancing delivery logistics and utilizing digital and physical channels, leading to innovative shopping experiences [2] - Targeted promotions and loyalty programs were employed to stimulate demand while maintaining profitability, with subscription perks and buy-now-pay-later options appealing to value-conscious consumers [3] Retail Sales Performance - U.S. holiday sales for November and December are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with year-over-year growth estimated at 3.7%-4.2%, translating to total sales of $1.01-$1.02 trillion [4] - Online spending during Cyber Week increased by 7.7% year-over-year, reaching $44.2 billion, indicating strong digital engagement [4][8] Retailer Strategies and Stock Recommendations - Retailers like Amazon, Ross Stores, Walmart, and Costco are highlighted as strong contenders for growth in 2026, leveraging innovative strategies and consumer engagement [5][8] - Amazon's dominance in e-commerce is supported by its Prime ecosystem and technological innovations, with sales growth estimates of 11.9% for the current year and 11.3% for the next [6][7] - Ross Stores is benefiting from its off-price model and effective merchandising, with sales growth estimates of 6% for the current year and 5.4% for the next [11][12] - Walmart's omnichannel approach and focus on low prices position it well for value shoppers, with sales growth estimates of 4.5% for both the current and next year [15][16] - Costco's membership model drives strong traffic and loyalty, with sales growth estimates of 7.5% for the current year and 7.3% for the next [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. stock is down approximately 20% from its all-time high in February, entering bear market territory, despite record-breaking earnings and long-term growth potential [1][3][13] Financial Performance - Amazon's latest earnings report from early February showed record revenue and profit, with quarterly profit exceeding $20 billion for the first time, marking an over 80% year-over-year increase [3][4] - The company has consistently beaten analyst expectations for multiple quarters, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic pressures [4] Business Drivers - The strong performance is attributed to the continued success of AWS, Amazon's high-margin cloud computing business, and a growing digital advertising segment, both seen as core revenue drivers [5] - Amazon's Prime ecosystem remains a dominant force in e-commerce, providing a recurring revenue stream that supports profitability even as retail margins tighten [9] Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Amazon, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $260.65, indicating a potential upside of 31.79% from the current price of $197.78 [6] - Loop Capital has set a price target of $285, suggesting nearly 50% upside potential, highlighting the disconnect between the stock's current price and its long-term growth trajectory [7] Technical Indicators - Technical indicators suggest that the stock may be oversold, with the relative strength index (RSI) recently dipping to 26, indicating extreme conditions [10] - The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, which often signals a shift in momentum, suggesting that if the broader market stabilizes, Amazon's stock may attract buyers [11][12] Investment Opportunity - Despite the stock's decline, the underlying business remains strong, making this a potentially attractive entry point for investors [13]