PROG (NYSE:PRG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBobby Griffin - Managing Director of Equity ResearchBrian Garner - CFOJohn Hecht - Managing DirectorHoang Nguyen - Equity ResearchJohn Baugh - VP of Investor RelationsSteve Michaels - President and CEOBrad Thomas - Associate Director of ResearchKyle Joseph - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsVincent Caintic - Managing Director and Specialty Finance AnalystAnthony Chukumba - Managing Director, Senior Research An ...

PROG (NYSE:PRG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBobby Griffin - Managing Director of Equity ResearchBrian Garner - CFOJohn Hecht - Managing DirectorHoang Nguyen - Equity ResearchJohn Baugh - VP of Investor RelationsSteve Michaels - President and CEOBrad Thomas - Associate Director of ResearchKyle Joseph - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsVincent Caintic - Managing Director and Specialty Finance AnalystAnthony Chukumba - Managing Director, Senior Research An ...

PROG (NYSE:PRG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0Day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Brock Holdings Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, John Bubb, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Speaker1Thank you ...

Q3 2025 Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues reached $595.1 million[5], a decrease of 1.8% year-over-year, primarily due to a smaller lease portfolio, but this was partially offset by growth in Four Technologies[11, 12, 17] - Net earnings amounted to $33.1 million[5, 17] - Adjusted EBITDA stood at $67.0 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.3% of PROG Holdings consolidated revenues[5, 11, 17] - Diluted EPS was $0.82, while Non-GAAP Diluted EPS reached $0.90, a 16.9% increase year-over-year[5, 11, 17] Progressive Leasing Segment - Progressive Leasing GMV totaled $410.9 million, a 10.0% decrease year-over-year due to a large national partner's bankruptcy and tighter decisioning[5, 14, 15, 18] - Progressive Leasing revenue was $556.6 million, a 4.5% decrease year-over-year[14, 15, 18] - Write-offs as a percentage of Progressive Leasing revenue were 7.4%, showing sequential and year-over-year improvement[14, 15, 18] - Progressive Leasing adjusted EBITDA was $64.5 million, representing 11.6% of Progressive Leasing revenues[18] Four Technologies - Four Technologies experienced GMV growth of 162.8% and achieved its third consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA[5] 2025 Outlook - The company revised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $2.41 billion - $2.435 billion[21] - The company revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $258 million - $265 million[21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-GAAP EPS for Q2 was $1.02, significantly exceeding the outlook range of $0.75 to $0.85 per share [5][20] - Consolidated revenue reached $604.7 million, reflecting low single-digit growth year-over-year [7][27] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $73.5 million, slightly up from $72.3 million in Q2 of the previous year [8][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Progressive Leasing's GMV was $413.9 million, down 8.9% year-over-year, primarily due to the Big Lots bankruptcy and tightening of approval rates [21][22] - Four Technologies delivered over 200% revenue growth, contributing significantly to overall performance [8][27] - Write-offs for Q2 were 7.5%, which is 20 basis points better than the previous year, indicating effective portfolio management [9][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce represented approximately 21% of total leasing GMV, marking an all-time high for Progressive Leasing [10] - Millennials and Gen Z account for about 70% of GMV, highlighting a shift in customer demographics [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving results through pipeline opportunities, online platform expansion, and enhancing customer experiences [5][11] - Strategic pillars include growth, enhancement of technology, and expansion of services, with a commitment to sustainable unit economics [11][13] - The company is exploring strategic M&A opportunities while maintaining a balanced approach to capital returns [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing softness in demand for consumer durable goods but expressed confidence in the ability to gain market share and drive sustainable growth [18][30] - The outlook for 2025 includes consolidated revenues projected between $2.45 billion and $2.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA between $255 million and $265 million [30][31] Other Important Information - The company ended Q2 with $222 million in cash and $600 million in gross debt, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.38x [27][28] - The recent legislative changes are expected to positively impact cash tax outlook by allowing immediate expensing of lease merchandise [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the underlying growth considering the Big Lots bankruptcy and underwriting tightening? - Management indicated that excluding Big Lots, GMV would have been up approximately 1%, and the tightening actions contributed an additional 800 to 900 basis points drag on GMV [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for the pipeline with retailers? - Management noted increased engagement with retailers, including RFIs and RFPs, indicating a positive trend in considering leasing products [44] Question: What factors influenced the guidance update for the second half of the year? - Management highlighted that while write-offs were lower than anticipated, the impact of Big Lots and portfolio size would create headwinds in the back half of the year [60][62] Question: How is the company leveraging its customer database for growth? - Management stated that there are synergies between the leasing business and the four platform, with initiatives in place to drive customer acquisition and engagement [76][78] Question: What is the competitive landscape for the subscription product in the BNPL space? - Management acknowledged strong competition but expressed confidence in the value proposition of their four plus subscription service, which has seen robust adoption [94][95]

Q1 2025 Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues reached $684.1 million[5], a 6.6% increase year-over-year[12, 17] - Net earnings totaled $34.7 million[5], with a diluted EPS of $0.83[5] - Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $70.3 million[5], representing 10.3% of consolidated revenues[11] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.90[5], relatively flat year-over-year[12] Segment Results - Progressive Leasing's GMV was $402.0 million[5], a 4.0% decrease year-over-year[15, 20] - Progressive Leasing's revenue increased 5.0% year-over-year to $651.6 million[15, 20] - Progressive Leasing's write-offs as a percentage of revenue was 7.4%, within the targeted annual range of 6-8%[14, 15] - Four Technologies experienced GMV growth of 145.7% and achieved quarterly positive Adjusted EBITDA[5] 2025 Outlook - The company revised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $2.425 billion - $2.5 billion[21] - The company projects Q2 2025 revenues between $575 million and $595 million[24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $684.1 million, a 6.6% increase year over year, driven by a larger lease portfolio and higher purchase activity [9][27] - Adjusted EBITDA was $70.3 million, slightly down from $72.6 million in the previous year [27] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.90, exceeding the high end of the outlook [10][27] - The lease portfolio balance increased by 6.1% year over year, compared to a 5.2% decline at the same point in 2023 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Progressive Leasing's GMV for Q1 was $402 million, down 4% from the previous year, primarily due to the bankruptcy of a large retail partner [22][24] - Excluding the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy, GMV growth was low to mid-single digits [8][24] - Ford Technologies, the BNPL platform, achieved triple-digit revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time [11][80] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, with inflation and tariff concerns impacting consumer confidence and spending [12][29] - Consumer behavior has shifted, with many delaying discretionary spending, particularly in big-ticket categories [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its ecosystem strategy, which includes enhancing both leasing and BNPL products to meet consumer needs [11][19] - Strategic investments in marketing and technology are prioritized to drive growth and optimize risk management [12][19] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to spending while making selective capital investments [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macro environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through it [12][29] - The revised 2025 outlook reflects increased macro uncertainty and a decline in consumer confidence, particularly in key categories [29][30] - Management expects lease portfolio performance to remain within the targeted 6% to 8% annual write-off range [30] Other Important Information - The company returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share [27] - The company has $335.2 million remaining under its $500 million share repurchase program [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the dynamics of the trade-down environment? - Management noted that trade-down behavior still exists but is more muted compared to the latter half of 2024, with no significant tightening observed [36] Question: How has retail softness progressed? - Management indicated that while the quarter started encouragingly, there was a noticeable downshift in consumer sentiment, with no significant rebound observed [40] Question: What is the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy on GMV? - Management confirmed that the $30 million GMV headwind from the lost customer is expected to be consistent across the quarters [41][42] Question: How are inflation and tariffs impacting retail partners? - Management highlighted that modest price increases could be beneficial, but significant price shocks and demand destruction are concerning [46] Question: What is the status of the American Signature partnership? - Management reported positive progress with American Signature, indicating strong connectivity and training efforts [64] Question: What is the reduction in lease approval rates? - Management stated that lease approval rates are approximately 300 to 400 basis points lower year over year, influenced by tightening actions and a shift in application quality [70]