Riverwater Partners, an investment management company, released its “Small Cap Strategy” Q3 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Small Cap Core Strategy reported solid results for the quarter but did not keep pace with the sharp rally, thus lagging the benchmark. The market’s preference for lower-quality companies persisted in the quarter and contributed significantly to the benchmark’s outperformance. On the other hand, the strategy remains focused on higher-quality compa ...

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda, provides financial services. With a market cap of $33.6 billion, the company offers life, health, and property insurance and reinsurance products, as well as mortgage insurance products. Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and ACGL perfectly fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this mark, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the insurance - diversified indust ...

Core Insights - MNK International has expanded its global presence by acquiring a new brokerage in Türkiye, focusing on insurance and reinsurance solutions for specialty and complex risks [1][4] - The Turkish branch will serve local clients with a diverse range of services, including engineering, financial lines, aviation, and property insurance [1][4] Company Strategy - As a subsidiary of the MNK Group, the Türkiye branch will leverage internal resources, including a global network of managing general agents (MGAs), to enhance its offerings across various jurisdictions [2] - The strategic positioning aims to provide innovative, high-quality solutions tailored to the unique needs of Turkish businesses operating internationally [3][5] Leadership - Erhan Ergunes, with 20 years of industry experience, will lead MNK International Türkiye as CEO, bringing expertise from previous roles at major insurance companies [2][3] - Ergunes is expected to drive the company's mission to address risk challenges and build long-term partnerships in the Turkish market [3][4] Market Opportunities - The Turkish market presents significant opportunities in sectors such as construction, engineering, aviation, and agriculture, with a focus on tailored coverage for evolving client needs [4] - MNK Group's extensive network includes MGAs in the UK, Italy, the US, and the Middle East, enhancing its competitive edge in the region [4][5]

Core Insights - Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) is valued at a market cap of $15.1 billion and operates as a leading global reinsurance and insurance provider, offering a wide range of products across various regions [1] Financial Performance - EG is expected to announce its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings results on October 29, with analysts predicting an adjusted earnings of $9.13 per share, a decrease of nearly 37.6% from $14.62 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $45.52, representing a 52.6% increase from $29.83 in fiscal 2024 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, EG stock has declined nearly 9.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 16.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which increased by 16.5% [4] - On October 9, EG shares fell by 2.3% after Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan reaffirmed a "Hold" rating with a price target of $383 [5] - The consensus among analysts is cautiously optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" rating; among 18 analysts, five recommend "Strong Buy," two "Moderate Buy," nine suggest "Hold," and two have a "Strong Sell" rating [5] - The average analyst price target of $382.88 indicates a premium of 8.8% from current market prices [5]

Core Insights - SiriusPoint has agreed to divest its 49% equity stake in Arcadian Risk Capital to Lee Equity Partners for $139 million, which includes an extended capacity agreement lasting until the end of 2031 [1][2] - Arcadian, established in Bermuda in 2020, has a diverse underwriting portfolio including general liability, excess and surplus casualty, professional liability, and property insurance [1][2] - The deal is expected to close by the end of Q1 2026, subject to standard closing conditions, with SiriusPoint anticipating a pre-tax gain of $25 million to $30 million from the sale [3] Company Operations - Arcadian operates in Bermuda, Ireland, the UK, and the US, and aims to accelerate growth and expand its platform with the investment from Lee Equity Partners [2] - Arcadian's current earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is reported at $17.6 million [3] Management Statements - SiriusPoint's CEO Scott Egan expressed enthusiasm about continuing the partnership with Arcadian and supporting its growth under CEO John Boylan [4] - Lee Equity's Mark Mauceri highlighted the excitement of partnering with Arcadian's team for the next growth phase [4]

Core Insights - The commercial insurance industry is entering a period of stability and opportunity, supported by over $1 trillion in industry surplus capital and more than $725 billion in reinsurance capacity [1][2] - The market environment is increasingly favorable to buyers, with property insurance renewal rates declining by 8% in Q2 2025 and 5.5% in Q1 2025, alongside a $16 billion reserve surplus in Workers' Compensation [2][3] - Artificial intelligence is significantly transforming underwriting, claims management, and product design, providing deeper risk insights and enabling faster decision-making [3] Market Conditions - The commercial insurance market is shifting from disruption to opportunity, with ample capacity allowing organizations to secure broader coverage and optimize program structures [2][5] - Despite favorable conditions, caution is advised due to global insured catastrophe losses exceeding $100 billion annually for five consecutive years, which could reintroduce volatility [4] Strategic Recommendations - Companies are encouraged to embrace data-driven decision-making and leverage emerging technologies to capitalize on current favorable conditions while preparing for future risks [5]

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation is recognized as one of the best inexpensive stocks to buy according to hedge funds [1] - A multi-year partnership has been established between Allstate and the Big 12 Conference to launch the Allstate Championship Series, aimed at celebrating Big 12 Championships and student-athletes year-round [1][2] - The Allstate Championship Series will serve as the foundation for the Allstate Commissioner's Cup, awarded annually to the Big 12 school with the highest performance metrics [2] Group 2 - Allstate will be the presenting sponsor for all Big 12 Olympic sport championships and will be integrated into major events such as the Big 12 Football Championship and the Men's and Women's Basketball Championships [2][3] - The partnership includes digital and in-venue branding at all Big 12 Championships, original content highlighting student-athlete leadership, and Allstate's designation as the "Official Insurance Partner of the Big 12 Conference" [3] - Allstate Corporation operates in the property and casualty insurance sector, providing various insurance products in the US and Canada, with five segments: Allstate Protection, Run-off Property-Liability, Protection Services, Allstate Health & Benefits, and Corporate & Other [4]

Financial Highlights - Total assets reached $12.8 billion as of March 31, 2025[8, 24] - Shareholders' equity stood at $2.4 billion as of March 31, 2025[8, 24] - Cash and invested assets amounted to $4.4 billion as of March 31, 2025[8, 38] - Gross premiums written (GPW) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended March 31, 2025, totaled $4.6 billion[8, 12] Performance Analysis - The combined ratio for Q1 2025 was 115.6%, impacted by $333 million in catastrophe and large losses, primarily from the California wildfires[23, 24, 26] - The annualized operating ROAE for Q1 2025 was (7.6%)[24, 26] - Net investment income increased by 21% from Q1 2024 to $50 million[24, 26] Portfolio Composition - Insurance segment accounted for $3.619 billion (78%) of the gross premiums written[13] - Reinsurance segment accounted for $993 million (22%) of the gross premiums written[11] Capital Management - The company returned $33 million of capital to common shareholders in the three months ended March 31, 2025, including $22 million in share repurchases and $11 million in dividends[26] - The company has $103 million remaining available for repurchase under the $200 million common share repurchase authorization as of May 9, 2025[47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded top line growth of 14% for Q1 2025, with gross premiums written amounting to $1.7 billion, compared to the same quarter last year [21][9] - The combined ratio for the quarter was 115.6%, impacted significantly by catastrophe losses, particularly from California wildfires, which accounted for $333 million in losses [23][24] - Net premiums written increased by 32% year-over-year, while net premiums earned rose by 24% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the insurance segment, gross premiums written increased by 7% to $1.3 billion, driven by new business and asset-backed finance [22] - The reinsurance segment saw a 39% increase in gross premiums written to $456 million, largely due to new business and reinstatement premiums related to wildfire losses [22] - The attritional loss ratio improved to 22.7% from 30% in the prior year, indicating better performance in the overall portfolio [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a favorable trading environment with strong margins across various lines of business, despite increasing competition in some areas [10][11] - The marine portfolio continued to grow year-on-year, primarily driven by new construction business [11] - The aviation and aerospace premiums saw a reduction year-on-year due to the timing of a line slip renewal [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to pursuing profitable underwriting opportunities and strategic capital management, focusing on a diversified portfolio with no casualty exposure [7][8] - Management emphasized the importance of active exposure management and the strategic use of outward reinsurance to navigate current market conditions [10][14] - The company is exploring new opportunities in highly accretive and profitable business segments to maximize returns [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to achieve approximately 10% growth in gross premiums written for the year, citing a strong trading environment [39][45] - The company is actively monitoring global economic conditions and adjusting its underwriting strategy accordingly, particularly in response to inflation and political risks [31][33] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet to support profitable growth and capital management initiatives [30][41] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $41.5 million of common shares at an average cost of $15.63 per share year-to-date [17][29] - The company has settled or is in various stages of settlement discussions for approximately 80% of its total exposure related to the Russia-Ukraine aviation litigation [18][19] - The average rating of fixed income securities remains high at A+, with a book yield of 5% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth opportunities in the second half of the year - Management acknowledged a timing headwind in the aviation line and expressed confidence in achieving 10% growth for the year despite the challenges [43][45] Question: Drivers of favorable reserve movement - Management noted strong performance in the attritional book and reserve releases from prior catastrophe events as key drivers of the favorable prior year development [47][48] Question: Explanation for stock trading at a discount to book value - Management agreed on the undervaluation and emphasized the need to continue performing well to build investor confidence [52][54] Question: Impact of UK aviation litigation on share repurchases - Management indicated that they would continue to repurchase shares opportunistically, depending on market conditions and share prices [56][90] Question: Competitive environment in property insurance - Management highlighted the ability to implement pricing adjustments in real-time and noted strong demand in the market, allowing for continued growth [97][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded top line growth of 14% for Q1 2025, with gross premiums written amounting to $1.7 billion, compared to the same quarter last year [18][7] - The combined ratio for the quarter was 115.6%, impacted significantly by catastrophe losses, particularly from California wildfires, which accounted for $333 million in losses [20][21] - Net investment income increased to $50 million, up from $41 million in the prior year, reflecting a higher yield on cash and fixed income portfolios [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the insurance segment, gross premiums written increased by 7% to $1.3 billion, driven by new business and asset-backed finance [19] - The reinsurance segment saw a 39% increase in gross premiums written to $456 million, largely due to new business and reinstatement premiums related to wildfire losses [19] - The attritional loss ratio improved to 22.7% from 30% in the prior year, indicating better performance in the overall portfolio [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a favorable trading environment with strong margins across various lines of business, despite increasing competition in some areas [9][8] - The marine portfolio continued to grow year-on-year, primarily driven by new construction business [10] - The aviation and aerospace premiums saw a reduction year-on-year due to the timing of a line slip renewal [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to pursuing profitable underwriting opportunities and strategic capital management, focusing on a diversified portfolio with no casualty exposure [6] - The management emphasized the importance of active exposure management and the strategic use of outward reinsurance to navigate current market conditions [8][12] - The company is exploring new opportunities in highly accretive business segments to maximize returns and access new risks [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to achieve approximately 10% growth in gross premiums written for the year, citing a strong trading environment [36][42] - The company is actively monitoring global economic conditions and adjusting its underwriting strategy accordingly, particularly in response to inflation and political risks [30][29] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with clients and brokers to access business at preferential terms [34] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $41.5 million of common shares at an average cost of $15.63 per share year-to-date, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [14][27] - The company has settled or is in various stages of settlement discussions for approximately 80% of its total exposure related to the Russia-Ukraine aviation litigation [15][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the growth opportunities in the second half of the year? - Management acknowledged a timing headwind in the aviation line and expressed confidence in achieving 10% growth for the year, citing a diversified portfolio [40][42] Question: Can you discuss the drivers behind the favorable reserve movement? - Management noted that the favorable prior year development of $41 million was driven by strong performance in the attritional book and reserve releases from prior catastrophe events [44][45] Question: Why is the stock trading at a discount to book value? - Management agreed on the undervaluation and emphasized the need to continue performing well to build investor confidence [48][50] Question: What is the impact of the pending UK aviation litigation on share repurchases? - Management indicated that the strong capital position allows for both profitable underwriting and share repurchases, with plans to continue buying back shares if prices remain attractive [82][85] Question: How is the company addressing the competitive environment in property insurance? - Management highlighted the ability to implement pricing adjustments in real-time and the strong demand from the admitted market, allowing for continued growth [92][94]