丙烯日报 | 2025-11-28 主力下游开工回落，关注成本端扰动 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5798元/吨（-22），丙烯华东现货价5995元/吨（-5），丙烯华北现货价6050元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差197元/吨（+17），丙烯华北基差179元/吨（-43）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR192美元/吨（+18），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR67美元/吨（+11），进口利润-354元/吨（-86），厂内库存48970吨 （+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-310元/吨（+55）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-263元/吨（+66）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润72元/吨 （+118）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润444元/吨（+4）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-443元/吨（+21）； 酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，镇海炼化裂解装置重启，中化泉州、 ...

Core Thesis - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is viewed positively due to its low-cost operations, strong dividend yield, and potential for earnings recovery, despite current market pricing reflecting prolonged depressed earnings [2][5]. Financial Performance - As of September 3rd, LYB's share price was $54.19, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 115.30 and 11.40, respectively [1]. - The company generates approximately 40% of its revenue from Olefins & Polyolefins (O&P) in the Americas, benefiting from low-cost ethane sourced from shale gas [3]. - The valuation metrics indicate LYB is trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA and 0.4x sales, suggesting significant upside potential [5]. Market Position and Strategy - LYB is one of the top three global producers of polyethylene and polypropylene, leveraging its cost advantages in North America [2]. - The company has maintained polyolefins utilization at around 80% to preserve margins amid global polyethylene oversupply [4]. - A potential sale of European assets could unlock $1 billion for share buybacks, enhancing shareholder value [5]. Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that spreads and utilization rates will revert to the mean, indicating a recovery in earnings by 2026-27 [4]. - In a bullish scenario, shares could reach $117 (+150% with dividends), while the base case suggests a price of $84 (+83%) [5]. - Even in a bear case, the downside is limited to $39 if dividends are maintained, making it an attractive accumulation opportunity [5].