Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 29, 2025, after market close [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 56 cents, reflecting a 30% decline from 80 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $9.35 billion, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [2] Performance Factors - The company's performance is anticipated to show progress from its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, benefiting from the nationwide rollout of the Green Apron Service model aimed at enhancing service standards and operational efficiency [3] - Seasonal offerings, such as the Pumpkin Spice Latte and new protein cold foam beverages, are expected to drive traffic and ticket growth, with same-store sales predicted to rise 0.2% year-over-year [4] - Internationally, revenues are projected to increase by 7.4% year-over-year to $2 billion, driven by growth in China, the U.K., and Mexico [5] Cost Pressures - Despite positive factors, the bottom line may face pressure from high labor costs, increased operating hours due to the Green Apron Service, and ongoing inflation, with total operating expenses expected to rise 8% year-over-year to $5.47 billion [6] - Softer traffic trends in the U.S., particularly during afternoon hours, and a cautious consumer spending environment may negatively impact performance [7] Earnings Prediction - The model indicates that SBUX may not achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -8.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is facing significant challenges in its turnaround efforts, with shares down 9.4% year-to-date, despite some positive indicators such as record sales of the Pumpkin Spice Latte and potential buyers for its China business [2][3]. Group 1 - Jim Cramer has expressed concerns that CEO Brian Niccol may have underestimated the extent of the difficulties facing Starbucks when he took over [2][3]. - Cramer acknowledges that there are positive developments at Starbucks, including strong sales figures and interest in selling its China operations, but questions the timing of when to reinvest in the stock [3]. Group 2 - The article suggests that while Starbucks has potential as an investment, there are AI stocks that may offer better returns with lower risk, indicating a competitive investment landscape [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company net revenue for Q3 was $9.5 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year, driven by 6% net new company-operated store growth, partially offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales [40][41] - Global operating margin was 10.1%, a decrease of 650 basis points from the prior year, primarily due to deleverage and investments in the Back to Starbucks strategy [49] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 was $0.50, down 45% from the prior year, mainly reflecting the impact of expense deleverage and investments [50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, comparable sales declined by 2%, with the U.S. experiencing a transaction comp decline of less than 4% [40][41] - Canada reported low single-digit sales comp growth, driven by product innovation, particularly in food [44] - The international segment achieved over $2 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, with strong performance in the UK and Mexico [28][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Starbucks China's comparable store sales grew by 2%, driven by a 6% improvement in comparable transactions, supported by successful product innovation and marketing campaigns [46][28] - The UK and Mexico showed positive comparable sales performance, while Japan faced challenges with negative comparable sales due to soft consumer sentiment [31][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the "Back to Starbucks" strategy, which aims to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, with significant investments in the Green Apron service model [5][14] - Plans include a comprehensive evaluation of the coffee house portfolio to ensure alignment with brand and customer expectations, targeting at least 1,000 uplifts across North America by the end of 2026 [20][21] - The company aims to innovate its menu and enhance the Starbucks Rewards program to better recognize customer loyalty and engagement [86][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround strategy, noting early signs of progress in partner engagement and customer satisfaction [8][12] - The company anticipates that investments in labor and operational improvements will yield healthier margins over time, with a focus on disciplined capital deployment [54][53] - Management acknowledged the dynamic environment regarding coffee prices and tariffs but remains optimistic about future growth opportunities [52][53] Other Important Information - The company plans to hold an Investor Day in early 2026 to provide insights into long-term strategies and performance expectations [66][68] - The Green Apron service model is set to roll out across all U.S. company-operated stores, aiming to standardize customer service and operational efficiency [14][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Investment in stores and cost offsets - Management highlighted the importance of the Green Apron service as a foundational operating model and is working on cost structure efficiency across the P&L [58][59] Question: Long-term margin expectations - Management indicated that 2019 margins serve as a guidepost for future profitability, emphasizing the need to drive top-line growth first [65][66] Question: Green Apron service rollout - The Green Apron service model will begin rolling out mid-August, with expectations for gradual implementation across stores [71][72] Question: Marketing impact on transactions - Management noted improvements in marketing effectiveness and operational progress, contributing to increased transactions [78][79] Question: Food innovation opportunities - Management acknowledged successful food initiatives in Canada and plans to leverage successful food offerings globally [80][81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company net revenue for Q3 fiscal year 2025 was $9.5 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year, driven by 6% net new company-operated store growth, partially offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales [39][40] - Global operating margin was 10.1%, a decrease of 650 basis points from the prior year, primarily due to deleverage and investments in the Back to Starbucks strategy [47] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 was $0.50, down 45% from the prior year, mainly reflecting the impact of expense deleverage and investments in the Back to Starbucks strategy [49] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, comparable sales in the U.S. declined by 2%, while Canada experienced low single-digit sales growth, driven by product innovation [7][43] - The college and university license business saw year-over-year comparable sales growth in the low double digits, indicating renewed brand engagement among younger customers [10] - The delivery business achieved over 25% year-over-year transaction growth, contributing positively to overall performance [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Internationally, the segment posted over $2 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, with seven out of the top ten markets showing positive comparable sales, particularly in the UK and Mexico [27][44] - In China, comparable store sales grew by 2%, driven by a 6% improvement in transactions, supported by successful product innovation and marketing campaigns [45][28] - The UK and Turkey markets showed continued momentum with improving comparable sales performance, while Latin America maintained double-digit year-over-year growth in system sales [30][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the "Back to Starbucks" strategy, which aims to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with significant investments in labor and service standards [5][6] - The rollout of the Green Apron service model is a key initiative aimed at establishing consistent and scalable customer service standards across all U.S. stores [15][72] - Future innovations will include a robust menu pipeline and enhancements to the Starbucks Rewards program, aimed at increasing customer loyalty and engagement [23][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround strategy, noting early signs of progress in partner engagement and customer satisfaction metrics [32][52] - The company anticipates that investments in operational improvements will yield healthier margins over time, despite current margin pressures [49][53] - An Investor Day is planned for early 2026 to provide further insights into long-term growth strategies and financial performance expectations [34][65] Other Important Information - The company is conducting a comprehensive evaluation of its store portfolio to ensure alignment with brand and customer expectations, with plans to complete this by the end of the fiscal year [46][21] - The introduction of new product innovations, such as Protein Cold Foam, is expected to enhance customer offerings and drive sales [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the cost offsets related to the $500 million investment in labor hours? - Management indicated that they are working across the entire P&L to identify cost structure efficiencies, with both short-term and long-term strategies in place [59][60] Question: Can the company return to pre-COVID margin levels? - Management views 2019 margins as a reasonable benchmark and is focused on driving top-line growth while establishing a cost structure that supports profitability [65][66] Question: How quickly will the Green Apron service model be implemented across stores? - The rollout will begin mid-August, with a focus on ensuring proper staffing and operational consistency before full implementation [72][73] Question: What is driving the sequential improvement in transactions? - Management attributed improvements to better marketing efforts and operational progress, with a focus on enhancing customer experience [78][79] Question: What changes are expected in the rewards program? - The rewards program will be reimagined to better recognize customer loyalty and engagement, moving away from a one-size-fits-all discounting approach [86][87]