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国泰海通:维持腾讯音乐-SW“增持”评级 合理估值96港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 05:55
内容方面,多语种曲库通过续约头部艺人及引入日韩ACG厂牌得以强化;游戏音乐联合《王者荣耀》打 造出《明日坐标》等爆款作品。演唱会方面,25Q3权志龙G-DRAGON演唱会拓展至悉尼等六国举行14 场演出;同时,TMElive国际音乐大赏创新推出,全球行业影响力提升。用户体验方面,创新与差异化会 员体系提升用户黏性,新推出的广告会员对免费用户的吸引力不断增强,其在平台上的日均使用时长持 续上升;通过提供更优质的播放体验和更丰富的艺人周边权益,超级会员渗透率与ARPPU持续提升。 国泰海通发布研报称,维持腾讯音乐-SW(01698)"增持"评级。该行预计腾讯音乐25-27年营收为 327.6/370.8/415.8亿元,经调整净利润为96.8/108.9/121.6亿元。给予26年25xPE,对应每股合理估值96.0 港元。公司25Q3实现营收84.6亿元,同比+20.6%。毛利率43.5%,同比+0.9pct。经营利润27.1亿元,同 比+26.4%;经营利润率32.0%,同比+1.5pct。经调整净利润24.1亿元,同比+32.6%;经调整净利率28.4%, 同比+2.6pct。 报告中称,腾讯音乐付费渗透率 ...
国泰海通:维持腾讯音乐-SW(01698)“增持”评级 合理估值96港元
智通财经网· 2025-11-13 05:50
Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (01698), projecting revenue growth and adjusted net profit for 2025-2027, with a target price of HKD 96.0 for 2026 based on a 25x PE ratio [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music achieved revenue of RMB 84.6 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% with a gross margin of 43.5%, up 0.9 percentage points [1] - Operating profit reached RMB 27.1 billion, reflecting a 26.4% year-on-year growth, with an operating margin of 32.0%, up 1.5 percentage points [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 24.1 billion, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net margin of 28.4%, up 2.6 percentage points [1] Revenue Drivers - Online music service revenue was RMB 69.7 billion in Q3 2025, up 27.2% year-on-year, with subscription revenue at RMB 45 billion, a 17.2% increase [2] - The number of paying users reached 126 million, a 5.6% year-on-year increase, with a paid penetration rate of 22.8%, up 2.2 percentage points; ARPPU was RMB 11.9, a 10.2% increase [2] - Offline performances, advertising, and peripheral income contributed to a revenue of RMB 24.7 billion, a significant 50.5% year-on-year growth [2] Content and User Engagement - The multilingual music library has been strengthened through contracts with top artists and the introduction of Japanese and Korean ACG labels [3] - Collaborative music projects with games like "Honor of Kings" have produced hit songs such as "Tomorrow's Coordinates" [3] - The user experience has been enhanced through innovative membership systems, increasing user stickiness and daily usage time for free users [3]