This quantum computing stock delivered massive gains but faces serious risks. Find out what Wall Street may be missing next.Rigetti Computing (RGTI +3.62%) is one of the most controversial quantum stocks, blending massive historical gains with shrinking revenue and dilution risk. This video breaks down the upside, the red flags, and what needs to go right for long-term investors.Stock prices used were the market prices of Jan. 9, 2026. The video was published on Jan. 12, 2026. ...

Core Insights - IonQ, Inc. is recognized as one of the best quantum computing stocks to invest in currently, with Cantor Fitzgerald raising the price target from $60 to $70 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating after the Q3 2025 earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, IonQ's revenue increased by $27.5 million, or 222% year-over-year, reaching $39.9 million, driven by advancements in specialized quantum computing hardware and revenue from acquisitions [2] - The company's loss from operations escalated from $53.1 million in Q3 2024 to $168.8 million in Q3 2025, attributed to rising costs in revenue, general and administrative expenses, and R&D [3] - IonQ anticipates recognizing approximately $141.1 million in revenue from remaining performance obligations as of September 30, 2025, and has raised its revenue expectations for FY 2025 to a range of $106 million to $110 million [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - Cantor Fitzgerald projects that IonQ is well-positioned to capture 30% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035, translating to a present value of $954 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is considered a promising investment opportunity in the quantum computing sector, with analysts projecting significant potential for stock price appreciation despite current financial challenges [1][4]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is currently valued at $8.2 billion, but it operates in a start-up mode, generating only $7.5 million in sales over the past 12 months, indicating it is at an early stage of business development [2]. - The stock is priced just below $25 per share, with analysts forecasting a potential rise to at least $40 within a year, and some predicting it could reach $51, which would represent a doubling of the current price [4][8]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's current market capitalization of $8.2 billion corresponds to a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1,093, given its limited revenue [5]. - Sales have decreased by 43% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory [5]. - Analysts project that Rigetti could achieve $300 million in sales by 2030, but they do not expect the company to be profitable even five years from now [6]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for high returns, Rigetti's stock is deemed very expensive and unprofitable at present, leading to caution among investors [8]. - Other investment opportunities have been identified that may offer better returns than Rigetti Computing, as noted by analysts from The Motley Fool [7].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:RGTI) experienced a decline of 4.6%, trading at $31.57 after reporting mixed third-quarter results [1] - The company reported adjusted losses of 3 cents per share, which were better than the anticipated losses of 5 cents per share, but revenue of $1.95 million fell short of estimates of $2.2 million [1] Stock Performance - Since reaching a record high of $58.15 on October 14, RGTI has seen a 45% decrease in its stock price [2] - Despite the recent decline, the stock has increased by 107.6% year to date [2] Options Activity - RGTI has seen significant options trading activity, with 30,000 puts and 24,000 calls exchanged [4] - The most popular option is the November 12 put, with new positions being opened at the weekly 11/14 31-strike put [4] - The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio stands at 3.18, indicating a higher put bias compared to 95% of readings from the past year [4]

Economic and Market Overview - A group of eight moderate Democratic senators has ended a 38-day federal government shutdown, positively impacting pre-market futures [1] - The blue-chip Dow is up 155 points, S&P 500 is up 60 points, and Nasdaq is up 365 points, indicating a strong market response [2] - The 10-year bond yield has increased to 4.12%, while the two-year yield is at 3.60%, reflecting market adjustments [2] - Economic data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales, is expected to be released later this week, which will inform the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] Company Earnings Reports - Tyson Foods (TSN) reported Q3 earnings of $1.15 per share, exceeding expectations of $0.85, resulting in a positive surprise of 35.3%, although revenue slightly missed at $13.86 billion compared to the expected $13.91 billion [4] - Monday.com (MNDY) posted earnings of $1.16 per share, beating projections of $0.89, with revenues of $316.9 million surpassing the expected $312 million; however, a significant drop in guidance for next-quarter revenues led to a 20% drop in share price [5] - Rigetti (RGTI) is anticipated to report a 37.5% year-over-year earnings growth, with modest revenue growth of 0.42%, and shares are up 120% year to date [6] - Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is expected to report a 6% decline in bottom line year-over-year, with a 1.45% increase in revenues; the outlook will be crucial for investors [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - SkyWater reported record Q3 revenues of nearly $151 million, exceeding expectations by more than $9 million [5][24] - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 24.6%, with significant revenue upside flowing directly to gross profit [25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $25.8 million, well above the expected range of $10-$12 million [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ATS business saw a revenue pull-in of approximately $4 million from Q4 due to program execution timing, with expected Q4 ATS revenues around $50 million [8][22] - Texas wafer services revenue reached nearly $87 million, exceeding expectations by $9 million, primarily due to higher work-in-process wafers post-acquisition [15][24] - Quantum computing-related revenue is expected to exceed 30% growth in fiscal 2025, with four new customer engagements signed since Q2 [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The quantum computing market is experiencing significant investment, with several players announcing large funding rounds, validating the commercial potential of the sector [9][10] - The advanced packaging market is projected to reach nearly $80 billion by 2030, driven by demand in automotive, IoT, 5G, AI, and edge computing [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - SkyWater aims to restore domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and secure trusted production, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. innovation infrastructure [18][19] - The acquisition of FAB25 has strengthened SkyWater's competitive position, expanding its scale and diversifying its customer and technology mix [16][15] - The company is focused on leveraging its technology-as-a-service model to support various quantum architectures and drive growth [12][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in exceeding initial revenue and EBITDA expectations for 2026, with a baseline expectation of at least $600 million in revenue and $60 million in adjusted EBITDA [23][40] - The ongoing government budget dynamics are expected to impact A&D-related ATS revenues, but overall growth in quantum and advanced packaging is anticipated [22][50] - Management highlighted the importance of U.S. leadership in quantum computing and the need for domestic manufacturing capabilities [20][21] Other Important Information - The company plans to hold its first Investor and Analyst Day on March 24 in New York City [4] - Total debt at the end of Q3 was $184 million, reflecting borrowings for the FAB25 acquisition and working capital [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the gross margin expectations for Q4? - Management indicated that Q4 non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 17%-20%, with a 200 basis point impact from tools revenue [34][37] Question: What are the dynamics behind the revised revenue guidance for next year? - Management noted that higher-than-expected WIP in the fab and strong performance in Q3 and Q4 contribute to confidence in the $600 million revenue target [40][41] Question: How does SkyWater view the current aerospace and defense environment? - Management stated that while funding dynamics remain uncertain, investments in facilities are geared towards the A&D community, positioning SkyWater well for future growth [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a notable decline of 13.6% this week despite gains in broader market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 [1][2]. Stock Performance - Rigetti's stock fluctuated dramatically, initially surging after JPMorgan's announcement of investment intentions in the quantum industry, but later plummeting due to rumors regarding the CEO's equity sales [2][4]. - The CEO, Subodh K. Kulkarni, sold a substantial portion of his stake but retains approximately 0.8% in stock options, which contributed to the stock's decline [4]. - Following a report about potential equity positions from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Rigetti shares rose again, but the unverifiable nature of the report led to a subsequent retreat in stock price [4]. Market Data - Current stock price of Rigetti is $38.82, with a market capitalization of $13 billion [5]. - The stock's trading range for the day was between $38.81 and $43.46, while the 52-week range has been from $1.06 to $58.15 [5]. - The trading volume for Rigetti was 2.8 million, with an average volume of 75 million [5]. Valuation Concerns - The quantum computing sector, particularly pure-play stocks like Rigetti, has seen inflated valuations driven by hype, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of these prices [6]. - The company is advised to be avoided until valuations align more closely with realistic expectations [6].

Core Viewpoint - IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has emerged as a significant player in the quantum computing sector, offering investors a unique opportunity to engage with a speculative yet promising market trend [1] Company Overview - IonQ is positioned as a pure-play investment option in the quantum computing space, which is characterized by high speculation and intrigue [1]

Core Insights - Quantum Computing Inc. has significantly strengthened its balance sheet, transforming it into a growth asset with pro forma cash reaching approximately $824 million, positioning the company among the largest financial reserves in the quantum sector [1] Financial Health - The company has successfully executed back-to-back capital raises, enhancing its liquidity and providing a substantial war chest for future investments and growth initiatives [1] - The strong balance sheet indicates sustainable revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, which are critical for long-term survival in the competitive landscape of quantum computing [1] Market Positioning - Quantum Computing Inc. benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, which are essential for capturing market share in high-growth industries [1] - The company is positioned to leverage network effects that can drive exponential growth, further solidifying its competitive edge [1] Investment Strategy - The investment methodology focuses on identifying high-conviction opportunities with a balanced portfolio construction that includes core positions, growth bets, and speculative investments [1] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, ensuring a strong margin of safety while maximizing long-term compounding potential [1]

Core Insights - D-Wave Quantum's shareholders have seen their investment more than quadruple over the last three years, with a return of 313.5% compared to the S&P 500's 79.9% [1][4][6] Performance Analysis - D-Wave Quantum's share price has increased by over 216% in 2023 alone, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 13% [2][4] - A $1,000 investment in D-Wave three years ago would now be worth $4,135, while the same investment in the S&P 500 would be worth $1,799 [6] Market Position - D-Wave Quantum's market capitalization is approximately $9 billion, categorizing it as a mid-cap company, which makes it relevant to benchmarks like the Nasdaq Composite and S&P MidCap 400 [5] Financial Health - The company reported a loss of $167.3 million in Q2, which is a significant increase from the $17.8 million loss in the same quarter the previous year [7] - D-Wave's revenue for the latest period was only $3.1 million, indicating limited financial performance [7][8] - The stock is valued at a price-to-sales ratio of 298, reflecting a high valuation relative to its revenue [8]