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转守为攻?中美芯片战初现“分水岭”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 04:21
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the China-U.S. semiconductor conflict, marking a transition from passive defense to active countermeasures, with China initiating anti-dumping investigations against U.S. semiconductor imports, indicating a new phase in the ongoing tech war [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the U.S., specifically targeting general interface chips and gate driver chips with a production process of 40nm and above, which are essential in various industries such as automotive and industrial control [3][4]. - The investigation is based on a complaint from the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, representing domestic companies that meet the "industry representation" criteria under anti-dumping regulations, with U.S. manufacturers like Texas Instruments (TI), ADI, Broadcom, and ON Semiconductor being implicated [3][4]. - The dumping margin for the products in question is reported to exceed 300%, with these U.S. chips capturing an average market share of 41% in China [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - U.S. chip exports to China have seen a significant increase from 1.159 billion units in 2022 to an expected 1.590 billion units in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 37%, while the import prices have plummeted by 52% during the same period [4]. - The article notes that U.S. companies have adopted aggressive pricing strategies in the mature process chip sector, leading to a decline in profit margins for companies like TI, which are projected to decrease from 67.47% in 2021 to 58.14% in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - The anti-dumping investigation is seen as a direct response to recent U.S. sanctions against Chinese entities, including 23 companies in the semiconductor sector, which coincided with upcoming trade negotiations [5][6]. - The article emphasizes that the semiconductor sector has been a focal point of the U.S.-China trade conflict since the trade war began in 2018, with the U.S. implementing measures to restrict Chinese access to high-end chips and incentivizing companies to "decouple" from China [5][6]. Group 4: Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - The anti-dumping investigation is expected to accelerate the domestic replacement of analog chips in China, with local firms likely to benefit from a more favorable market environment as a result of the investigation [10][13]. - The investigation not only targets specific products but is anticipated to have a profound impact on the entire semiconductor supply chain, signaling to the international market that China will actively defend its trade rights within the framework of international rules [13][14]. - The article concludes that while China has made strides in the mature process chip sector, challenges remain, including a lack of skilled personnel and the need for domestic companies to strengthen their capabilities to avoid reliance on foreign suppliers [13][14].