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汽车降价潮引发的估值回撤:捡漏智驾产业链龙头耐世特(01316)
智通财经网· 2025-05-29 03:55
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry's price-cutting trend has led to a continuous decline in valuations across the supply chain, yet savvy investors are beginning to acquire undervalued stocks, particularly in the intelligent driving sector [1] Group 1: Intelligent Driving Sector - The intelligent driving segment is a core investment theme in the automotive industry, with domestic new energy vehicle penetration exceeding 40%, but high-level intelligent driving penetration remains low, primarily at the L2 stage [1] - Companies like Xpeng and Tesla are leading the push for higher-level intelligent driving, with only a few models achieving L2+ and L3 capabilities [1] - The steer-by-wire system is a key component of high-level intelligent driving, and the global steering system leader, Nexteer (耐世特), is gaining investor interest [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Position - Nexteer's valuation has dropped by 7% recently but has increased by over 77% this year, driven by improved fundamentals and strong competitiveness in the steer-by-wire sector [1] - The company is strategically expanding into the steer-by-wire chassis sector to meet industry mass production demands, further enhancing its fundamentals [1] - Nexteer holds a strong position in the global automotive steering system market, ranking among the top three with a market share of 16.16% in China, second only to Bosch Huayu [2][4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Despite being a market leader, Nexteer faces significant competitive pressure from price wars and domestic substitution in the Chinese market, with revenue growth slowing to only 1.65% in 2024 [4] - The company has a high customer concentration, with its top three clients contributing 68.8% of revenue, which poses operational risks if major clients like General Motors face performance issues [4] - In Q1 2025, Nexteer secured $800 million in new orders, a 60% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in orders from Chinese clients, indicating strong product recognition [5][11] Group 4: Product Development and Market Trends - The steer-by-wire system is becoming mainstream as the automotive industry shifts from traditional hydraulic systems to electronic systems, with significant growth potential in the L2+ and L3 intelligent driving segments [7][10] - Nexteer's product portfolio includes traditional hydraulic and electric power steering systems, with a notable increase in orders for steering columns and intermediate shafts in 2025 [8] - The company has made breakthroughs in steer-by-wire technology, winning multiple orders from leading electric vehicle manufacturers, which positions it well for future growth [10] Group 5: Investment Sentiment - Several investment banks are optimistic about Nexteer's prospects, forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 29% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, supported by strong order growth and product diversification [11] - The intelligent driving sector remains a hot investment theme, with Nexteer's fundamentals and multiple growth drivers expected to support its market value in the long term [12]
耐世特(1316.HK):主业盈利能力回升 构建完善的线控底盘产品组合
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-23 18:00
Group 1 - The automotive steering system is gradually transitioning from EPS to steer-by-wire technology, which offers better responsiveness, enhanced autonomous driving capabilities, and improved emergency steering safety [1] - The steer-by-wire system is essential for L3+ autonomous driving, with significant advancements since its first mass production application in the 2013 Infiniti Q50 [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in its main business profitability and is building a comprehensive steer-by-wire chassis product portfolio, integrating trends such as electrification, automation, and software-defined vehicles [1] Group 2 - The company's net profit margin has significantly improved, with a projected net profit of $61.72 million in 2024, a 68.1% increase from $36.74 million in 2023 [2] - The company secured project orders totaling $6 billion in 2024, with 31% from new business, including multiple steer-by-wire orders, showcasing its strong competitiveness [2] - The company plans to strategically expand into the steer-by-wire chassis field with the release of rear-wheel steering (RWS) and electronic mechanical brake (EMB) systems in the first half of 2025, further enhancing future growth potential [2] Group 3 - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of $4.469 billion, $4.772 billion, and $5.068 billion from FY2025 to FY2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 6.8%, and 6.2% respectively [2] - The projected net profit for the same period is $121 million, $162 million, and $186 million, reflecting growth rates of 96.2%, 34.1%, and 14.4% respectively [2] - Given the rapid profit growth phase, the company has a target price of HKD 7.61 per share, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price, with a corresponding FY2025E PE of approximately 19 times [2]
NEXTEER(01316.HK):ROBUST BOOKING WINS WITH CHINA NEVS; BENEFITING FROM TARIFFS EASING AND US AUTONOMOUS DRIVING REGULATIONS RELAXING
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-17 01:54
Core Viewpoint - Nexteer launched 23 new projects in Q1 2025, with 60.9% focused on new energy vehicles (NEVs), driven by strong demand from Chinese NEV OEMs and significant bookings from North American clients [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The Company secured bookings totaling US$0.8 billion in Q1 2025, representing 16.0% of its full-year target of US$5.0 billion [1] - New energy vehicle projects accounted for 14 out of 23 new projects, highlighting the Company's focus on this sector [1] - The Company is actively developing new products, including Electro-Mechanical Braking (EMB) and enhancing its Rear Wheel Steering (RWS) systems [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The Company is facing manageable impacts from US tariffs, primarily affecting parts and raw materials from Canada and Mexico, with a 25% tariff on non-compliant automobile parts [1] - Most products exported from Mexico to the U.S. comply with USMCA, allowing them to maintain tariff-free status [1] - The Company is optimizing its supply chain and manufacturing strategies to mitigate market uncertainties and policy risks [1] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The Trump administration plans to relax regulations on autonomous driving, which will benefit Nexteer's autonomous driving-related business, particularly in high-capacity EPS and advanced SBW and RWS business units [2] - The relaxation of compliance procedures for self-driving vehicles for non-commercial purposes is expected to further support the development of autonomous driving in the U.S. [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The Company maintains a "Buy" investment rating with a target price of HK$6.50 per share, reflecting a 15.6x 2025 PER [2]
耐世特(01316.HK):中国新能源汽车订单量强劲;受益于关税放宽及美国自动驾驶法规放宽
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-17 01:54
Group 1 - The company launched 23 projects in Q1 2025, with 60.9% being new energy vehicle projects, totaling 14 projects, which account for 65.2% of all projects in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - Strong orders from Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers were highlighted, covering REPS, DPEPS, and the latest RWS systems [1] - The company aims for an annual order target of $5 billion, with Q1 orders reaching $800 million, representing 16.0% of the annual target [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government proposed to ease regulations on autonomous vehicles, which will benefit the company's autonomous driving-related business and advanced steering systems [2] - The company is actively collaborating with clients and suppliers to optimize supply chains and production strategies to mitigate market uncertainties, especially regarding U.S. import policies [1] - The company is ensuring compensation from clients to offset costs related to non-exempt tariffs [1]