Key Points MP Materials stock has had a dramatic run-up in 2025 after a muted performance for years. The miner is the biggest beneficiary of the U.S. government's move to shore up rare earth supply. Massive deals and a crucial production milestone could drive MP Materials stock even higher. 10 stocks we like better than MP Materials › MP Materials (NYSE: MP) went public in November 2020 through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). On the day of its listing on Nov. 18, 2020, ...

STILLWATER, Okla., Nov. 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) (USAR or the Company) today announced the completion of its acquisition of Less Common Metals Ltd. (LCM). LCM is the leading scaled ex-China rare earth metal and alloy manufacturer, with established leadership in Samarium, Samarium Cobalt and Neodymium Praseodymium metals and alloys. The transaction marks a major milestone in USAR’s strategy to build a fully integrated, end-to-end rare earth supply chain—from magnet-to- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on China's Export Control Playbook and Market Impact Industry Overview - The presentation focuses on the **China** and **US** trade dynamics, particularly in the context of **export controls** and **tariffs** affecting the technology and critical materials sectors, including **rare earths** and **lithium batteries** [17][21][24]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Tariff Adjustments**: - The US has reduced tariffs on China from **145% to 30%**, while China has lowered tariffs on US goods from **125% to 10%** as part of a temporary truce [19][28]. - The truce is fragile, with potential for future escalations in tariffs and non-tariff barriers [18][28]. 2. **China's Dominance in Critical Materials**: - China holds a significant global market share in rare earths and lithium batteries, with **90%** of refined production and **86%** of EV battery production [22]. - The country’s dominance is supported by a complete value chain and cost advantages in lithium-ion battery production [23]. 3. **Export Control Framework**: - China has been gradually implementing an export control framework since **2020**, with significant regulations introduced in **2024-2025** covering critical metals and technologies [24][26]. - The framework aims to consolidate regulations and enforce selective export controls on various materials, including rare earths and EV battery technologies [25][26]. 4. **Impact of Trade Tensions**: - Rising trade tensions and technology restrictions have prompted China to assertively control exports of critical materials, which could impact global supply chains [24][28]. - The US has also expanded tech controls, which may expose vulnerabilities in China's tech supply chain [29][30]. 5. **Economic Scenarios Post-Truce**: - Three potential scenarios for the evolution of the US-China truce are outlined: - **Bear Case**: Truce collapses, leading to sharp export slowdowns and supply chain disruptions. - **Base Case**: A one-year truce with intermittent frictions, resulting in marginal economic balancing. - **Bull Case**: Progress towards a framework deal, with improved economic conditions and reduced uncertainty [28]. Additional Important Insights - **Self-Sufficiency in Semiconductors**: - China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors remains low, with projections indicating only a **39%** self-sufficiency ratio by **2027** [31]. - The GPU self-sufficiency ratio is expected to reach **50%** by **2027**, indicating some progress in localization efforts [31]. - **Export Growth Trends**: - Recent data indicates a softening in export growth, attributed to high base effects and front-loaded production [33]. - The year-on-year export growth is expected to be negative, but this is likely a one-off occurrence rather than a long-term trend [33]. - **Inflation and Economic Indicators**: - Inflation is projected to level off towards the end of the year, with CPI rebounding due to seasonal effects [38][40]. - The economic outlook remains cautious, with potential impacts from ongoing trade tensions and export controls [28][40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the current trade dynamics between the US and China, particularly focusing on export controls and their impact on the technology and critical materials sectors.

Core Insights - India is set to expand its rare earth magnet incentive programme to over Rs70bn ($786m), nearly tripling its size to enhance domestic capacity in a sector currently dominated by China [1] - The previous plan was $290m, focusing on critical materials for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and defence, with potential revisions to the final allocation still pending [2] - The initiative aligns with global efforts to establish resilient supply chains for rare earth magnets, especially after China tightened export controls, which disrupted global supplies [3] Industry Context - India aims to reduce dependency on China, which processes around 90% of the world's rare earth output, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US [3][4] - The Indian government’s expanded initiative will support around five companies through production-linked incentives and capital subsidies [6] - Domestic production of rare earths in India is currently non-viable without government subsidies, leading state-owned enterprises to seek overseas mining partnerships [5] Technological and Market Developments - The government is also funding studies on synchronous reluctance motors to reduce reliance on rare earth materials [7] - India is expected to require around 2,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides annually, a demand that can be met by global producers [7] - Despite China's recent moves to issue import licenses for rare earth magnets intended for use in India, no licenses have been granted to Indian-origin companies [6]

Core Insights - Pensana has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Vacuumschmelze (VAC) to create a mine-to-magnet supply chain in the US, enhancing domestic rare-earth magnet production crucial for national security [1][4] - The MoU includes a five-year offtake agreement for mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) from Pensana's Longonjo mine, responding to US defense restrictions on rare earth imports from China by 2027 [2] - The partnership aims to strengthen the global rare earth value chain and explore further joint opportunities, with support from the US government [3] Company Developments - VAC has launched its eVAC magnetics facility in Sumter, South Carolina, contributing to the production of rare earth magnets [1] - The initial agreement supports eVAC's production of 2,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of rare earth magnets, with plans to scale up to 12,000 tpa by 2029 [2] - Pensana's Longonjo mine is one of the largest undeveloped rare earth mines globally, with production expected to start in early 2027, and efforts are underway to accelerate this timeline to late 2026 [5][6] Industry Context - The partnership reflects a commitment to building a complete mine-to-magnet supply chain to meet the growing demands for rare earth materials, which are integral to global decarbonization efforts [4] - The collaboration is positioned to support industries such as robotics, AI, advanced manufacturing, and humanoid robots, indicating a strategic alignment with future technological trends [5][6]

Core Insights - MP Materials (MP) is positioned as a significant beneficiary in the rare earth sector due to heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly following China's recent export controls on rare earths aimed at national security [1][2] Industry Overview - China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for approximately 70% of global mining and 90% of processing capacity, which provides it with substantial leverage over the supply chain [2] - The new regulations from China require foreign entities to obtain licenses for exporting products with rare earths, increasing the complexity of international trade in this sector [2] Company Developments - MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the U.S., managing the entire supply chain from mining to advanced manufacturing [3][10] - In July, MP Materials secured a significant deal with the U.S. Department of Defense to expedite the development of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, which includes various forms of support from the DoD [4][10] - The company operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine, recognized as the second-largest rare earth mine globally [3] Market Dynamics - Rare earth magnets are essential for advanced technologies, including defense systems and electric vehicles, leading to increased focus on establishing production capabilities independent of China [5] - Other companies, such as Energy Fuels and Idaho Strategic Resources, are also expanding their rare earth capabilities, indicating a broader industry trend towards diversification in this sector [6][7] Financial Performance - MP Materials' stock has surged by 509.4% this year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 34.9% [9][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials indicates a projected loss of 26 cents per share in 2025, an improvement from a loss of 44 cents in 2024, with expectations of earnings of 90 cents per share in 2026 [11]

Company Overview - MP Materials operates one of the few rare earth metal mines and processing facilities in the U.S., specifically the Mountain Pass Mine in California, which is essential for producing neodymium-iron-boron magnets used in various applications including consumer electronics and electric vehicles [1][9] Market Position - No other U.S. company can match the scale of MP Materials, contributing to a significant stock price increase of 330% over the year, with potential for further growth supported by U.S. government initiatives [2][7] Industry Context - China dominates the rare earth metal supply chain, accounting for approximately 65% of global production in 2024, while the U.S. only accounts for about 11%, highlighting the strategic importance of MP Materials in the U.S. market [3][4] Government Support - The U.S. Department of Defense has entered into a multibillion-dollar deal with MP Materials, granting a 15% stake in exchange for benefits including a price floor of $110 per kilogram of neodymium-praseodymium, which will aid in expanding its production capabilities [5][6] Strategic Partnerships - MP Materials has secured a $500 million agreement with Apple to supply magnets made from recycled materials, with shipments expected to commence in 2027, further solidifying its market position [6][9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The stock currently trades at approximately 81 times forward earnings, indicating high expectations from investors, suggesting potential volatility in the near term, with long-term investors likely to benefit the most [7]

Core Points - China's new export regulations on rare earth elements could significantly impact major tech companies like Apple and Tesla, as well as US military contractors, serving as a strategic bargaining tool in trade negotiations with the US [1][4][10] - The requirement for foreign entities to obtain special licenses for exporting products with over 0.1% rare earth metals from China will take effect on December 1, creating uncertainty for US companies [2][5] - The announcement has led to a surge in stocks of US-based rare earth mining companies, with some experiencing increases of 20% or more [3] Industry Impact - China holds a near-monopoly on the global supply of rare earth metals, controlling approximately 70% of mining and 90% of processing capabilities, which gives it significant leverage in international trade [7][10] - The new licensing requirements are expected to complicate supply chains, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers in the US [5][14] - The US is facing challenges in ramping up domestic production of critical minerals due to China's restrictions on technology exports related to mining and processing [14][18] Military Implications - Licenses for products with military applications are likely to be denied, which raises concerns about the availability of rare earth elements for defense technologies [6][10] - The potential for a total embargo on rare earth exports from China remains a concern, especially in the context of rising geopolitical tensions, such as the situation regarding Taiwan [13]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump is attempting to reduce tensions with China after Beijing's firm response to his 100% tariff threat, indicating that China "will not back down" [4] - Economists show slight optimism regarding the U.S. economy, but job growth expectations have declined according to an NABE survey [5] Group 2: Rare Earths and Critical Minerals - China has tightened its export controls on rare earths, prompting the U.S. government to intensify efforts to secure supplies and reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains [5] - The Pentagon plans to acquire up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals essential for defense systems and advanced technologies, with recent solicitations including $500 million for cobalt and $245 million for antimony [6] - Australia is considering mandated floor prices for critical minerals and investing in new rare earth projects as part of a trade deal with the U.S., discussing a $777 million strategic reserve for critical minerals [8] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - General Motors (GM) is set to benefit from its efforts since 2021 to secure domestic rare earth magnet supply, potentially becoming the only U.S. automaker with significant direct supply from multiple factories [7] - GM has established multi-year supply agreements with MP Materials and Noveon Magnetics, although the extent of U.S. production meeting GM's rare earth magnet demand remains unclear [7]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the export controls on semiconductors and AI chips from the US and rare earth minerals from China, highlighting the interdependence between the two nations [1][2] - China has recently announced additional export controls on rare earth elements and permanent magnets, which are crucial for manufacturing [2] - The importance of rare earths to the US has been emphasized, indicating a potential negotiation point between the two countries [3][4] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether a meeting will occur between the US and Chinese presidents, but both sides are publicly discussing their stakes in the negotiations [5][6] - China is aware of its leverage in the situation, particularly regarding its need for access to advanced AI chips from the US [7] - The significance of face-to-face meetings in diplomatic negotiations is highlighted, suggesting that personal interactions could facilitate more effective discussions [8][9]