Core Insights - October's retail sales were flat at $732.6 billion, missing the projected 0.1% growth and ending a four-month streak of increases [1] - Year-over-year retail sales increased by 3.5% compared to October 2024, while total sales from August to October 2025 rose by 4.2% [1][2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, increased by 0.4% in October, surpassing the expected 0.2% growth, and are up 4.0% year-over-year [3] Retail Sales Trends - Retail trade sales rose by 0.1% from September 2025 and are up 3.4% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers showing a significant increase of 9.0% year-over-year [1] - Control purchases, which provide a more stable view of retail sales, increased by 0.9% in October, compared to a decline of 0.1% in September, and are up 5.2% year-over-year [4][5] Market Implications - The retail sales data is expected to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) [8]

Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Insights - The current economic landscape lacks significant data releases, which may not influence Federal Reserve decisions [1][2] - Upcoming events include New York Fed inflation expectations and Fed minutes, which are anticipated to provide insights into the rate-cutting cycle [2][3] - The Kansas City Fed president, Jeffrey Schmidt, is expected to lead discussions, although the lack of new data may limit the impact of these talks [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A key highlight will be Jay Powell's speech on the economic outlook scheduled for Tuesday, which is expected to be significant [4] - Important economic indicators such as CPI, PPI, retail sales, import prices, and housing starts are pending, contingent on government operations [5] - Historical context indicates that the CPI was produced with limited data during past government shutdowns, raising questions about the reliability of future data releases [6]