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国富氢能20251208
2025-12-08 15:36
最近氢能行业的关注度和热度明显提升,主要有两个方面的原因。首先是国家 政策的推动。氢能被提升为新增长级之一,并作为非电领域的重要能源消纳方 式,政策上的支持力度显著增强。例如,国富金能与韩国公司合作使用天然气 重整 PEM 燃料电池开拓美国数据中心电源市场,并计划在三年内实现不少于 1 GW 的订单。这些举措显示出行业内公司积极布局并快速推进相关业务。 其次 是成本下降和技术进步。在过去两年中,尽管二级市场变化不大,但产业端成 本下降非常迅速。例如,在车端,49 吨氢燃料电池重卡的价格从两年前的一百 三四十万元降至现在的一半左右。在部分领域已经实现了平价状态。此外,从 2024 年下半年开始,光伏和风电资源丰富地区的氢气出厂价已逼近 15 元以下, 有些地方甚至接近 10 元多,这使得车端实现全寿命成本平价成为可能。 PAM 燃料电池相较于 SOFC 具有供应链成熟、成本较低(每瓦低于一元 人民币)、灵活性强和单机规模大等优势,是进入数据中心燃料电池供 电市场的重要趋势。 国富氢能车载储氢系统产能达 10 万辆车,液氢项目规划 2 万吨,预计 2027 年实现 1 万吨产量,2028 年增至 2 万吨,并积极 ...
SOFC 行业动态研究之一:SOFC 新蓝海,铬盐再次价值重估
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-04 09:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the SOFC industry, indicating a favorable outlook driven by AI electricity demand and an upcoming boom cycle [8][37]. Core Insights - The SOFC industry is expected to experience significant growth due to increasing electricity demand from AI data centers, with projections of 35GW of new data center capacity in the next five years, which is more than six times the average annual energy capacity of New York City [5][31]. - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise sharply, with estimates suggesting that 1GW of SOFC demand will require 0.82 million tons of metallic chromium and 2.95 million tons of sodium dichromate, while a 10GW market space will correspond to 8.2 million tons of metallic chromium and 29.55 million tons of sodium dichromate [4][32]. - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment, driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with the potential for chromium salts to become a scarce resource in AI electricity development [6][34]. Summary by Sections SOFC Demand Growth - SOFC technology features a simple manufacturing process that significantly reduces costs, with the structure comprising an anode, electrolyte, and cathode [16]. - The metallic interconnects in SOFCs, primarily composed of chromium alloys, are crucial for the system's performance and are expected to drive up the demand for chromium salts and metallic chromium [23][31]. Market Projections - The report projects that by 2028, the supply-demand gap for chromium salts will reach 340,900 tons, with a gap ratio of 32% [4][34]. - The global production capacity for sodium dichromate is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% from 2024 to 2028, while demand is projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.9% during the same period [9][35]. Key Companies and Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as Zhihua Co., Ltd. (global leader in chromium salts), Sanhuan Group (core supplier of electrolyte membranes), Yishitong (key supplier of solid oxide fuel cell materials), and Weichai Power (actively promoting SOFC commercialization) [8][37][38]. - The earnings forecasts for these companies indicate a positive outlook, with Zhihua Co., Ltd. expected to have an EPS of 0.85 in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential [38].