上 市 公 司 基础化工 证券分析师 2025 年 08 月 26 日 振华股份 (603067) ——沈宏重整确认为唯一投资人，行业格局持续优化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 19.26 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 24.46/9.98 | | 市净率 | 4.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.99 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 13,689 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.73 | | 资产负债率% | 35.16 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 711/711 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Industrial Fulian (601138) driven by AI demand, with projected revenues of 843.4 billion, 1,320.3 billion, and 1,715.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 38.5%, 56.5%, and 29.9% respectively, and net profits of 30.5 billion, 50.5 billion, and 59.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31.5%, 65.5%, and 17.6% [2][11] - Xiaomi Group (01810) reported record high revenues and profits in Q2 2025, with revenues of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and adjusted net profits of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75% year-on-year, driven by IoT and EV segments [10][12] - Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) expects significant profit growth for FY25, with net profits projected between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165%-190%, attributed to increased sales and cost reductions [13][15] Industrial Fulian (601138) - The company’s main business includes cloud computing, communication, and industrial internet, with a notable increase in cloud computing revenue expected to reach 319.38 billion yuan in 2024, a 64.4% year-on-year growth [11] - AI server demand is surging, with global cloud providers' capital expenditures increasing by 64% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [11] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the high-speed switch market, with revenues from 800G switches projected to triple compared to 2024 [11] Xiaomi Group (01810) - The company’s IoT segment saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q2, with smart home appliances achieving record sales, particularly in air conditioning and washing machines [12][14] - The electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 21.3 billion yuan with a significant improvement in gross margin, indicating a positive trend towards profitability [12][14] - Xiaomi plans to expand its global footprint in the home appliance sector, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for international sales [12][14] Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy and integrated pulp-paper operations, which are expected to enhance profitability significantly [15][16] - The anticipated increase in paper prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics is expected to further boost profits [15][16] - The company’s production capacity is set to expand, with new lines expected to come online, reinforcing its market position [15][16] Electric Heavy Trucks Industry - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with sales reaching 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, representing a penetration rate of 22% [18] - The European market is also seeing a rise in electric heavy truck adoption, with projections indicating significant growth in sales and market penetration by 2026 [18] - The industry is becoming increasingly collaborative, with a focus on developing specialized products across the supply chain, enhancing profitability potential [18] Other Companies - Keda Li (002850) reported strong revenue growth in Q2, driven by its structural components business and advancements in robotics [19] - China Hongqiao (01378) is set to benefit from increased production capacity and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum products, with projected net profits significantly increasing [20][21] - Blue Sky Technology (300487) continues to show growth potential, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market presence [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Greentown China (03900), a leader in high-quality residential development, with a strong presence in key cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing [2][11] - Greentown China has a mixed ownership structure, with major shareholders including China Communications Construction Company (28.94%) and Kowloon Warehouse (22.95%) [2][11] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its combination of state-owned enterprise credit and market-oriented mechanisms [2][11] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Inventory - Greentown China has been actively acquiring land since 2017, with an average land acquisition to sales ratio of 58% from 2017 to 2024, and a 55% ratio in the first half of 2025 [2][11] - The company focuses on land acquisition in key cities, with over half of its land value concentrated in ten core cities [2][11] - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve area is 27.47 million square meters, with a total land reserve value of 449.6 billion yuan [2][11] Group 3: Sales and Product Strength - Greentown China's self-invested sales in the first half of 2025 reached 80.3 billion yuan, with a sales price of 35,000 yuan per square meter, ranking fifth in the industry [2][11] - The company has a strong product offering, with eight product series and a verified premium pricing ability, averaging a 15% premium [2][11] - The company’s construction system and property management services contribute to its competitive edge [2][11] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has recognized impairment provisions totaling 11.4 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, with a 5.9% average for major real estate companies [2][11] - As of the end of 2024, the pre-receivable account is 147 billion yuan, covering 1.0 times the real estate settlement income for 2024 [2][11] - The target market capitalization for Greentown China is set at 33.3 billion HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.85X [2][11] Group 5: Industry Insights on Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with domestic consumption expected to maintain high growth due to strong demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [10][12] - China's organic silicon consumption accounts for approximately 60% of global demand, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.82 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21% [10][12] - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon is expected to peak at 3.44 million tons by the end of 2024, with a high industry concentration [10][14] Group 6: Cloud Computing and AI Sector - Major cloud service providers like Google and Microsoft have exceeded expectations, with Microsoft Azure's revenue growth accelerating to 39% in FY25Q4 [13][14] - The overall capital expenditure (Capex) for the cloud industry is projected to exceed 350 billion USD in FY25, reflecting strong demand for AI cloud services [13][14] - The report highlights the competitive advantages of these companies in the AI cloud sector, driven by increased computational capacity and strategic partnerships [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhua Co., Ltd. (603067.SH) reported a revenue of 2.19 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.17% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298 million yuan, which is a 23.62% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, marking a 10.17% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 298 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 23.62% [1] - The non-recurring net profit was also 298 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.29% [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.42 yuan [1] Business Operations - The company effectively released its production capacity, driven by structural changes in the demand for chromium salt products and market expansion opportunities [1] - The sales volume of chromium-related products was approximately 147,000 tons (measured in sodium dichromate), representing a year-on-year increase of about 12% [1] - In the second quarter, sales volume reached approximately 78,000 tons (measured in sodium dichromate), which is a year-on-year increase of about 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 13% [1] - The sales volume of metallic chromium products (excluding chromium corundum) exceeded 5,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 62% [1] - The company has steadily positioned itself among the top global manufacturers, achieving the highest sales growth rate and significant brand development in the metallic chromium production sector during the same period [1]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry Analysis - The report explores why European energy CPI remains high despite significant declines in oil and gas prices, with energy CPI reaching a peak of 192.5 in September 2022, and natural gas and oil prices dropping by 82% and 40% respectively by June 2025 [3][4] - Key factors contributing to high electricity prices include the transition from Russian gas to American LNG, outdated electricity grid infrastructure, rising taxes, rigid renewable energy subsidies, and high carbon emission costs [4][5] - The report highlights that despite an increase in renewable energy generation, the benefits are not reflected in lower consumer electricity prices due to market inefficiencies and fixed pricing structures [5] Group 2: Market Strategy for H2 2025 - The macro strategy for the second half of 2025 anticipates strong export resilience, a slowdown in domestic demand, and structural expansion in external demand [6][7] - The report suggests that liquidity conditions are expected to improve in Q4, with a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy and potential new policy tools to stimulate long-term corporate loans [6][7] - The focus will shift towards structural adjustments and innovation in key industries such as AI, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors, with an emphasis on growth sectors outperforming value sectors [7] Group 3: Company Performance - Laopu Gold - Laopu Gold's H1 2025 performance is highlighted, with expected sales revenue of approximately 138-143 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 240%-252% [9][10] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end markets, with new store openings in major cities and international locations, indicating strong brand momentum and market share growth [12] - Future projections for Laopu Gold include significant revenue increases, with expected revenues of 245 billion RMB in 2025, growing to 409 billion RMB by 2027, alongside a substantial rise in net profit [13] Group 4: Company Performance - Haida Group - Haida Group reported a revenue of 588.31 billion RMB for H1 2025, marking a 12.5% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 24.16% to 26.39 billion RMB [14][15] - The company achieved a 25% increase in feed sales volume, with significant growth in exports, particularly in poultry and pig feed [15][16] - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and net profit for Haida Group, projecting revenues of 1321.57 billion RMB by 2027 [16] Group 5: REITs Market Overview - The report indicates that the primary market for REITs is progressing well, with 14 products successfully issued in 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous year [17][18] - The secondary market for REITs has seen a decline in the index, but trading activity has increased, with a daily turnover rate of 0.72% [18][19] - The report notes a divergence in performance between different types of REITs, with property REITs showing better resilience compared to those based on operating rights [19] Group 6: Chromium Salt Industry Analysis - The report discusses the expected growth in global chromium salt demand from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1.31 million tons by 2028, driven by increased demand from the aerospace and military sectors [23][24] - Supply constraints are highlighted, with strict regulations limiting the expansion of chromium production, leading to a projected supply gap of 250,000 tons by 2028 [24][25] - The report emphasizes the critical role of chromium in high-temperature applications, with significant growth anticipated in the gas turbine and aerospace markets [26][27] Group 7: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report outlines a positive long-term economic outlook for China, supported by strong fundamentals and a resilient market structure [30][31] - Short-term economic indicators are also favorable, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in H1 2025, indicating robust economic activity [31][32] - The focus on proactive fiscal policies and increased government spending is expected to further stimulate economic growth and investment [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The chromium salt industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring due to surging demand from the overseas gas turbine and military sectors, which will drive up the demand for metallic chromium [9][10][11] - The global demand for chromium salts is projected to grow from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, representing a substantial increase [10][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming chromium salt market cycle due to its competitive advantages in production capacity and technology [10][11][14] Market Data - As of July 30, 2025, the company's current stock price is 14.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10,242.06 million yuan [6] - The company holds about 24% of the global chromium salt production capacity, indicating a strong market position [31][32] Demand Analysis - The demand for metallic chromium is expected to double from 23,000 tons in 2024 to 49,700 tons by 2028, driven by increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines [11][13] - The military and aerospace sectors are also anticipated to see significant growth, with NATO countries committing to increase defense spending [11][12] Supply Analysis - The supply of chromium salts is constrained due to strict environmental regulations and the difficulty of expanding production capacity globally [10][30] - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is facing a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028 [10][12] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 45.70 billion yuan, 53.88 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.66 billion yuan, 10.05 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan [14][16]

Group 1: Company Overview and R&D - The company’s R&D expenses for 2024 are expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, focusing on the development of raw materials and formulations, as well as process optimization and technological innovation for mature products like vitamins [1] - The company has officially started selling para-hydroxyphenol in the PEEK field and is actively promoting its products, having completed sample submissions to major domestic PEEK manufacturers, currently in various validation stages [1] Group 2: Product Registration and Market Activities - The company holds registration certificates for two products: Fumaric Acid Bisoprolol Tablets and Lacosamide Injection, with the former having commenced market promotion and industrialization in 2024 [1] - There are currently no plans for stock incentive programs or share buybacks, although the company previously repurchased shares in 2019 and conducted a restricted stock incentive plan in 2015, along with the first employee stock ownership plan launched in 2021 [2] Group 3: Inventory and Capital Expenditure - The company’s large ending inventory balance is attributed to its diverse business segments, including vitamins, flavors, raw materials, leather chemicals, and chromium salts, consisting mainly of raw materials, work-in-progress, and finished products to meet varying customer demands [2] - Future capital expenditures will primarily focus on new project construction, such as a 600-ton iodinated contrast agent raw material project, and technological upgrades to existing projects aimed at cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and improved safety and environmental control [2] Group 4: Risk Management - The company has not engaged in hedging activities and currently sees no demand for such services [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the high-temperature alloy industry [1][19]. Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is surging, driven by increased orders from major manufacturers, which is expected to boost the demand for chromium salts, high-temperature alloys, and components [7][18]. - The domestic supply chain for high-temperature alloys is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing demand surge, with Chinese companies positioned to capture opportunities in the international market [17][19]. Recent Trends - The high-temperature alloy industry has seen a robust performance, with a notable increase in orders for gas turbines and aircraft engines, reflecting a strong market outlook [7][18]. - The report highlights that the global gas turbine market is experiencing a significant expansion, with major players like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova reporting record-high order volumes [9][10][11]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies to watch, including Zhenhua Co., Longda Co., Hangya Technology, Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., Hangyu Technology, Parker New Materials, and Sry New Materials, all of which are expected to benefit from the rising demand in the high-temperature alloy sector [7][17][21]. - Profit forecasts for these companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected increases in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios over the next few years [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]