Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands and Altria are both considered stable blue chip stocks, but Altria has outperformed Constellation significantly over the past three years, raising questions about future investment potential [1][2]. Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands generates most of its revenue from its beer business, with popular brands like Modelo and Corona, and a smaller portion from wine and spirits [4]. - The company faces three major challenges: declining beer consumption among younger consumers, decreasing sales of lower-end wines, and increased costs due to tariffs on imported Mexican beers [5][6]. - Analysts expect Constellation's revenue to decline from $10.2 billion in 2024 to $9.9 billion in 2027, while its earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [8]. - Despite a low valuation at 14 times forward earnings and a forward yield of 2.5%, the lack of near-term catalysts makes it an unappealing investment [9]. Altria - Altria primarily generates revenue from its Marlboro cigarettes and has a strong domestic focus, which protects it from tariffs and foreign-exchange issues [10][11]. - The company has been countering declining smoking rates by raising cigarette prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smokeless product portfolio through investments and acquisitions [12]. - Following a setback with its investment in Juul, Altria acquired Njoy for $2.8 billion in 2023, which is expected to boost EPS starting in 2026 [13]. - Analysts predict Altria's revenue will dip slightly from $20.4 billion in 2024 to $20.2 billion in 2027, but its EPS is expected to grow at a steady CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - Altria's stock is considered cheap at 12 times forward earnings, with a substantial forward yield of nearly 7%, making it a more stable investment compared to Constellation [15]. Investment Recommendation - Altria is viewed as the better investment option due to its more stable business model, larger dividend, and lower valuation multiple compared to Constellation Brands [16].

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results with both sales and earnings missing expectations, primarily due to weak consumer demand influenced by socioeconomic factors [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $3.22, a 10% decline year over year, missing the consensus estimate of $3.38. Reported EPS was $2.90, down 39% year over year [2][6] - Net sales decreased by 5.5% year over year to $2.52 billion, also falling short of the consensus estimate of $2.57 billion [2][6] - The beer segment's sales fell 2% year over year to $2.23 billion, with a 3.3% decline in shipment volume attributed to socioeconomic headwinds [4][6] - Wine and spirits sales plummeted 28% year over year to $280.5 million, driven by a 30.4% decline in shipment volumes and an 8.1% dip in depletions [7][6] Margin Analysis - Comparable operating income was $810 million, down 11% from the prior year, reflecting challenges in both beer and wine & spirits segments [8] - Operating income for the beer segment fell 5% year over year to $873.4 million, with operating margin contracting by 150 basis points to 39.1% due to increased costs [9] - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating loss of $6 million compared to an operating income of $59.7 million in the previous year, with significant margin contraction [10] Financial Position - As of May 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $73.9 million, long-term debt of $9.8 billion, and total shareholders' equity of $7.3 billion [11] - Operating cash flow for the first quarter was $637.2 million, with adjusted free cash flow at $444.4 million [11][12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts operating cash flow of $2.7-$2.8 billion and free cash flow of $1.5-$1.6 billion for fiscal 2026, with planned capital expenditures of $1.2 billion [13] - Management anticipates organic net sales for fiscal 2026 to range from a decline of 2% to an increase of 1%, with the wine and spirits segment expected to decline by 17-20% [14] - Comparable EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is set at $12.60-$12.90, with reported EPS expected to be $12.07-$12.37 [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Needham analyst Gerald Pascarelli has reiterated a Buy rating on Constellation Brands, Inc. but has lowered the price forecast from $215 to $195, anticipating a weak start to fiscal year 2026 with first-quarter results expected on July 1 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Pascarelli predicts that Constellation Brands will report beer revenue and margins below the lower end of full-year guidance, which may negatively impact Street estimates [1]. - The analyst has reduced his first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $3.20, and lowered fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027 EPS estimates to $12.64 and $13.76, respectively [3][5]. - The price forecast of $195 implies a ~20% discount to the company's historical average multiple of ~14x [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Over the past three months, beer volumes have declined sequentially, with a forecasted beer depletion of -3.0%, which is 120 basis points below the -1.8% consensus [2][4]. - Volume trends have weakened since February due to category softness, ongoing consumer challenges, and poor weather in May and early June [3]. - Increased investment spending, particularly in marketing (estimated at 9.5% of sales), along with volume pressure, contributes to a forecasted beer margin of 38.0%, notably below the Street's 39.8% [4]. Group 3: Segment Performance and Guidance - Pascarelli is 10 points below consensus on wine and spirits revenue, expecting a ~30% organic decline, with the Svedka divestiture contributing to a ~5-point hit [5]. - The analyst models a 70% drop in segment operating income due to volume deleverage and distributor repayments [5]. - Despite a weak start to fiscal year 2026, the initial beer guidance was conservative enough to allow the company to meet its full-year targets, with management typically avoiding guidance revisions in the first quarter [6].