Matrix Asset Advisors, an asset management company, released its Q3 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The stock market continued its recovery from the April lows, gaining +8.12% in the third quarter and +14.83% YTD. The Matrix Large Cap Value strategy delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, which modestly outperformed the S&P 500® gain and was significantly ahead of the Russell 1000 Value® Index. Following a strong first half of the year, the Matrix Dividend Inc ...

Rochester, New York-based Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is a leading producer and marketer of premium alcoholic beverages, best known for its portfolio of high-end beer, wine, and spirits. Valued at a market cap of $22.8 billion, the company holds exclusive U.S. rights to top beer brands such as Corona, Modelo, and Pacifico. Shares of this alcoholic beverages producer have significantly lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. STZ has declined 46% over this time frame, while the broader ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands presents a potential investment opportunity despite challenges in alcohol consumption, particularly among Gen Z, as indicated by Berkshire Hathaway's recent share purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Alcohol Consumption Trends - Alcohol consumption remains a constant, with Constellation earning approximately 95% of its revenue from beer, including popular brands like Modelo [3][4]. - Historical evidence suggests that beer production has persisted for thousands of years, indicating a potential recovery in consumption trends [4][5]. Group 2: Dividend Appeal - Constellation has a strong dividend history, having paid dividends since 2015 and increasing its annual payout every year, currently offering $4.08 per share with a yield over 3.1% [6][7]. - The company generated about $1.85 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months, significantly exceeding its $724 million dividend expenditure, indicating a stable payout [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The stock's current P/E ratio is 19, below the S&P 500 average of 31, with a forward P/E of 11 suggesting it is undervalued [9]. - Despite a 45% decline in stock price over the past year due to lower consumption concerns, analysts project a stabilization in revenue for fiscal 2027 [9][11]. Group 4: Share Repurchase and Market Position - Constellation has reduced its share count by 3% over the last year, with an outstanding share count of 175 million, positioning the stock for potential price increases with rising demand [12][14]. - The company controls several prominent beer brands in the U.S., enhancing its market position and likelihood of retaining business [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has experienced a decline in share price by approximately 7.8% since its last earnings report, raising questions about the potential for continued negative trends or a possible breakout before the next earnings release [1] Financial Performance - The company reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both sales and earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate despite year-over-year declines due to weak consumer demand [2] - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) were $3.63, down 16% year over year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.37. Reported EPS was $2.65, compared to a loss of $6.59 in the same quarter last year [3] - Net sales decreased by 15% year over year to $2.48 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 billion. Organic net sales fell by 8% year over year [3] Segment Performance - Sales in the beer segment fell 7% year over year to $2.35 billion, driven by an 8.7% decline in shipment volumes due to socioeconomic headwinds and distributor inventory rebalancing. Depletions decreased by 2.7%, with notable declines in Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Modelo Chelada brands, partially offset by growth in Pacifico and Victoria [4] - The wine and spirits segment saw a significant decline of 65% year over year in sales, dropping to $136 million, primarily due to a 76.4% decrease in shipment volumes linked to divestitures and changes in distributor obligations. However, depletions in this segment grew nearly 2% [5] Margin Analysis - Comparable operating income for the company was $886.2 million, down from $1,019.1 million in the prior-year quarter, attributed to weak performance across beer, wine, and spirits businesses [6] - The beer segment's operating income fell 12% year over year to $951.6 million, with an operating margin contraction of 200 basis points to 40.6%, influenced by higher costs of goods sold (COGS) and increased marketing expenses [7] - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating loss of $19.8 million, a significant decline from an operating income of $70.5 million in the previous year, with margins affected by divestitures and changes in distributor contractual obligations [8]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway continues to actively invest in stocks despite Warren Buffett's impending retirement, indicating confidence in the long-term potential of selected companies [1]. Group 1: Investment in Lennar - Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5.1 million shares of Lennar, investing a significant amount amid a volatile housing market [2]. - Lennar's stock price has fluctuated, dropping from over $180 to around $100, before recovering to approximately $120 as of mid-October [2]. - The company generated $35 billion in revenue over the past year, but net income decreased to $2.7 billion due to rising costs and falling home prices [3]. - Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway view Lennar as a potentially undervalued stock with growth prospects if interest rates decline, as indicated by its low P/E ratio of 12.7 [4]. Group 2: Investment in Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands, focused on Mexican beer, has seen its stock decline by 48% due to falling beer consumption in the U.S. and an 8.7% drop in beer shipments year-over-year [5][6]. - Despite the decline in alcohol consumption, Berkshire Hathaway perceives Constellation Brands as a discounted investment with long-term pricing power, trading at an enterprise value-to-EBIT of 11 [6]. - The company’s high-quality beer brands are gaining market share, suggesting potential for future shareholder returns [7]. Group 3: Investment in Chevron - Chevron, a major player in the oil and gas sector, is Berkshire Hathaway's fifth-largest holding, with its stock seen as a hedge against inflation [9]. - The company's performance is closely tied to oil prices, which have significantly dropped since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to a decrease in net income to $14 billion [10][11]. - Despite a P/E ratio of about 20, Chevron's shares offer a 4.5% dividend yield, with potential for earnings growth if oil prices rise [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has shown signs of recovery after a significant decline, with shares rebounding from a low of $132 to just below $143, aided by a mixed but somewhat encouraging Q2 2026 earnings report [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Constellation reported revenues of $2.48 billion, a 15% decline and approximately $200 million lower than expectations, but gross margin increased by 100 basis points to 52.8%, exceeding analyst expectations [2][3] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.63, a 16% drop but significantly above expectations of $3.37, indicating that the company's outlook has not worsened materially [3] Market Outlook - The MarketBeat consensus price target for Constellation is nearly $189, suggesting a potential 31% rally, while updated forecasts from Wall Street analysts average around $163, indicating a more conservative potential increase of about 14% [5][6] - Despite the recovery, a more substantial rebound may take longer than previously anticipated [6] Demographic Trends - A key growth driver for Constellation is the increasing Hispanic American population in the U.S., which accounts for around 50% of the company's beer sales and is expected to continue driving population growth [7] - Immigration from Hispanic countries is also expected to benefit Constellation, as the company does not generate revenue in Mexico due to licensing agreements [8] Industry Challenges - Increased usage of GLP-1 drugs has been cited as a potential headwind for Constellation, as these drugs may reduce cravings and impact alcohol consumption; however, recent studies indicate little evidence supporting this claim [9][10] Long-Term Potential - Despite current challenges, Constellation's long-term potential remains strong due to its robust beer brands and favorable demographic trends, with shares trading approximately 85% below their all-time high, indicating substantial upside potential for long-term investors [11]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett is finding value in the current market, with a particular focus on a standout investment opportunity [1][12] - Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, but has recently invested over $4 billion in 13 different stocks [3][4] Berkshire Hathaway's Recent Activities - The company disclosed purchases of 10 stocks in its portfolio during the second quarter, spending $3.9 billion on equities [4][5] - Notable purchases include an investment of approximately $106 million in Sirius XM and an increase in stake in Mitsubishi from 9.74% to 10.23% [5][6] Investment Strategy - Buffett's strategy involves buying into companies facing short-term challenges, exemplified by his investment in UnitedHealth, which is currently under pressure due to rising costs and regulatory investigations [7][8] - Other companies in which Buffett has invested include Nucor, Lennar, Constellation Brands, Pool Corp, and Domino's Pizza [9] Constellation Brands Analysis - Constellation Brands has revised its fiscal 2026 outlook downward due to macroeconomic uncertainty affecting premium beer sales, particularly among Hispanic consumers [14] - Despite a dip in beer sales, the company's profit margins remain strong, supported by top brands like Modelo and Corona [15] - The company is developing new products in the nonalcoholic and ready-to-drink categories, indicating a proactive approach to market challenges [16] Market Performance and Valuation - Constellation Brands has seen a 45% growth in beer sales from 2020 to 2024, although slower growth is expected in 2025 and a decline in 2026 has pressured its stock price [17] - The stock is currently trading at 12.5 times forward earnings expectations, presenting a significant bargain for long-term investors [18]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands is facing significant challenges in the beer market due to reduced consumer engagement and spending habits [1][2] - The company's stock has decreased nearly 36% year to date, contrasting with mixed performance from competitors [2] - A survey indicates that 80% of consumers are concerned about socioeconomic issues, impacting their spending on alcohol [2] Industry Trends - The overall beer industry is experiencing suppressed demand, particularly among Hispanic consumers who are going out less and consuming less at home [3][5] - California, as the largest market for Constellation, is seeing a decline in construction jobs, which traditionally correlate with beer consumption [3][4] - Broader demographic trends show that U.S. alcohol consumption has reached a near-90-year low, with only 54% of adults reporting drinking [5] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported a 15% year-over-year drop in sales for the second quarter, with declines in key brands such as Modelo Especial and Corona Extra [6] - Some brands like Pacifico and Victoria showed growth, with increases of 14% and 19% respectively, but overall performance remains challenged [6] Economic and Policy Factors - Macro policy pressures, including immigration policies and tariffs, are contributing to increased production costs, with an estimated annualized cost of $90 million due to tariffs [5] - The company is also facing challenges related to slower rebuilding efforts in California following last year's fires, which are expected to impact consumption [4]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges in the alcohol market, particularly due to the impact of GLP-1 drugs that reduce cravings for alcohol, affecting sales of its major brands like Corona and Modelo [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a decline, with a current valuation at 12 times earnings, which is noted as the lowest seen, although this multiple contraction is considered justified given recent performance [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands produces and markets a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, under well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Kim Crawford, and SVEDKA [2] - The company has been described as a "fallen idol" in the consumer packaged goods sector, reflecting broader issues within the alcohol industry [2] Market Context - The alcohol industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with Constellation Brands exemplifying the struggles faced by companies in this sector [2] - The introduction and popularity of GLP-1 drugs are significantly impacting consumer behavior, particularly in relation to alcohol consumption [2]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results with both sales and earnings exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates despite year-over-year declines due to weak consumer demand and socioeconomic challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) were $3.63, a 16% decline year over year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.37. Reported EPS was $2.65 compared to a loss of $6.59 in the same quarter last year [2]. - Net sales decreased 15% year over year to $2.48 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 billion. Organic net sales fell 8% year over year [2]. - The stock price increased by 3.3% in after-market trading following the earnings release, reflecting better-than-expected performance [3]. Segment Performance - Beer segment sales declined 7% year over year to $2.35 billion, driven by an 8.7% drop in shipment volumes due to socioeconomic headwinds and distributor inventory rebalancing. Depletions fell 2.7%, with notable declines in Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Modelo Chelada brands, partially offset by growth in Pacifico and Victoria [4]. - Wine and spirits segment sales plummeted 65% year over year to $136 million, impacted by a 76.4% decline in shipment volumes due to divestitures and changes in distributor obligations, although depletions grew nearly 2% [5]. Margins and Operating Income - Comparable operating income was $886.2 million, down from $1,019.1 million in the prior-year quarter, attributed to weak performance in beer, wine, and spirits [6]. - Operating income for the beer segment fell 12% year over year to $951.6 million, with the operating margin contracting by 200 basis points to 40.6% due to higher costs and increased marketing expenses [7]. - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating loss of $19.8 million, a significant decline from an operating income of $70.5 million in the previous year, with margins affected by divestitures and contractual changes [8]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - As of August 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $72 million, long-term debt was $9.8 billion, and total shareholders' equity was $7.5 billion. The company generated an operating cash flow of $1.5 billion and an adjusted free cash flow of $1.1 billion in Q2 FY26 [9]. - The company returned nearly $604 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, with a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share announced [10]. Future Outlook - Constellation Brands forecasts operating cash flow of $2.5-$2.6 billion and free cash flow of $1.3-$1.4 billion for fiscal 2026, with planned capital expenditures of $1.2 billion [11]. - The company anticipates a decline in enterprise organic net sales of 4-6% and a decrease in beer segment net sales of 2-4%. The wine and spirits segment is expected to decline by 17-20% [12]. - Management projects a comparable EPS guidance of $11.30-$11.60 for fiscal 2026, with reported EPS expected to be $9.86-$10.16 [14].