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如何应对事件冲击?
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-16 05:14
Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced mixed results last week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by -0.4%, -0.6%, and -1.3% respectively[3] - European indices showed varied performance; the UK FTSE 100 rose slightly while the German DAX and French CAC40 retreated[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, market performance was also mixed[3] Economic Indicators - The US May CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8%[3] - Following the CPI data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year remain, although the timing may be delayed[3] Geopolitical Impact - The Israel-Iran conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from $66.5 per barrel on June 10 to a peak of $78.5, closing above $75 on June 13[3] - The geopolitical tensions could significantly impact global markets, particularly US dollar assets previously affected by trade wars[3] Investment Strategies - The report suggests maintaining positions in US stocks and bonds while selectively investing in volatility-related assets like SVIX and SVXY to hedge against market fluctuations[3] - The strategy emphasizes a cautious approach, advocating for a "do not move" stance on core holdings while opportunistically entering volatility trades[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]