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国元国际:给予石药集团(01093)“买入”评级 创新药研发快速推进
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 03:56
(原标题:国元国际:给予石药集团(01093)"买入"评级 创新药研发快速推进) 智通财经APP获悉,国元国际发布研报称,给予石药集团(01093)"买入"评级,目标价10.11港元,公司 积极布局创新药,研发投入加大,出海成果突出,公司持续高强度投入研发,已构建国际化管线与领先 平台,出海成果显著。尽管短期内成药业务受集采影响承压,但单季度业绩已呈现企稳回升态势,且多 款核心创新药临近关键节点,授权收入成为新增长点,为中长期增长奠定坚实基础。 国元国际主要观点如下: 新药研发投入加大,研发平台优势明显 公司已建成一支逾2000人的国际化研发团队,聚焦于抗肿瘤、精神神经、心血管等治疗领域,拥有8大 研发平台。研发费用41.85亿元,同比增长7.9%,占成药收入27.1%,显示公司持续高强度投入创新,有 近90个产品在临床试验的不同阶段,14款产品已递交上市申请,30余款处于注册临床阶段,为未来收入 结构转型奠定基础,公司计划在未来5年内申报近50款新产品/新适应症上市。 风险提示 新产品研发进度可能低于预期;产品商业化进展不达预期;国际形势复杂度超预期,创新药国际化进度低 于预期 fund 新药研发快速推进, ...
中金:维持石药集团“跑赢行业”评级 业绩企稳与研发管线持续推进
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:31
Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains "outperform" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), highlighting improvements in the company's prescription drug business and strong growth in respiratory and cardiovascular sectors [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.891 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.511 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-over-year. Adjusted net profit was 3.079 billion yuan, a decline of 23.0% year-over-year, aligning with CICC's expectations. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 6.618 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 3.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.7%, indicating stabilization in performance. The prescription drug revenue in Q3 2025 was 5.202 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 1.6% and quarter-over-quarter growth of 9.6% [2] Business Segment Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from various therapeutic areas included: - Neurological diseases: 1.914 billion yuan (YoY -4.2%) - Oncology: 594 million yuan (YoY -47.2%) - Anti-infection: 826 million yuan (YoY -8.6%) - Cardiovascular diseases: 474 million yuan (YoY +17.8%) - Respiratory diseases: 320 million yuan (YoY +72.7%) - Digestive system: 248 million yuan (YoY +13.7%) - Other areas: 362 million yuan (YoY +25.6%) - The company’s raw material drug revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 10.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6.4% [2] R&D Progress - The company is advancing its innovation-driven strategy, with significant progress in its small nucleic acid pipeline. Key projects include PCSK9, expected to enter Phase III by the end of 2025, and other clinical projects targeting chronic diseases such as blood lipid and blood pressure management. The company is also exploring targeted delivery for eye, lung, fat, and muscle diseases. Notable in-development products include anti-HER2 monoclonal antibodies and EGFR ADCs [3] Overseas Business Development - The company is enhancing its business development strategy and has established an international licensing platform. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved licensing revenue of 1.540 billion yuan. In Q3 2025, the company licensed SYH2086 (an oral small molecule GLP-1) to Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for global development and commercialization outside of China, which includes an upfront payment of 120 million USD and potential milestone payments of up to 1.955 billion USD, along with double-digit sales royalties. The company has additional innovative products in its pipeline that are expected to lead to further licensing opportunities and milestone revenue recognition [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering increased R&D investments, CICC has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 12% and 15% to 4.760 billion yuan and 5.353 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 times for 2025 and 15.0 times for 2026. The "outperform" rating is maintained, with a target price reduction of 15% to 11.00 HKD, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4 times and 21.4 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 42.5% [5]