Core Viewpoint - U.S. shale oil and gas producers are expanding internationally to secure supply amid changing long-term oil demand forecasts [1] Group 1: Company Activities - Continental Resources is actively acquiring assets in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play, which is the second-largest shale oil and gas deposit globally, and has made two recent acquisitions there [2] - The company is also exploring opportunities in Turkey, with potential recoverable reserves estimated at 6 billion barrels of oil and 12-20 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Diyarbakir Basin, and 20-45 trillion cubic feet in the Thrace Basin [2] - Bryan Sheffield, former CEO of Parsley Energy, is investing in Tamboran Resources, which holds drilling rights to nearly 2 million acres in Australia's Beetaloo basin, known for its significant shale gas deposits [3] - EOG Resources has commenced drilling in the UAE and plans to drill in Bahrain, indicating the region's potential for unconventional energy resources [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The expansion of U.S. shale drillers abroad is driven by peaking production levels domestically, with analysts suggesting that this global expansion was overdue due to the focus on the prolific Permian resources [4]

Devon Energy与Coterra Energy宣布合并，将组建一家估值 580 亿美元的页岩钻探巨头，这是油气行业多 年来规模最大的交易之一。 Devon Energy与Coterra Energy宣布合并，将组建一家估值 580 亿美元的页岩钻探巨头，这是油气行业多 年来规模最大的交易之一。 此次合并于周一官宣，恰逢美国油价跌至四年低点。这一背景令页岩油行业承压，迫使规模较小的企业 考虑通过联合方式与大型竞争对手抗衡。根据这份全股票交易协议，Devon Energy股东将持有合并后公 司 54% 的股份，Coterra Energy股东则持有 46%。据报道，这两家美国企业的并购谈判已接近尾声。 该交易是迄今为止规模最大的油气行业并购案，此前的纪录由Diamondback Energy以 260 亿美元现金加 股票收购页岩油竞争对手Endeavor Energy Resources保持。 分析师推测，在经历了两年的交易淡季之后，Devon Energy与Coterra Energy的合并可能会引发美国油气 行业的一波收购热潮。合并后的公司将成为美国最大的页岩油生产商之一，在富含石油的二叠纪盆地特 拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc is considering a potential sale of its assets in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play, having approached potential buyers to gauge market interest, although no final decision has been made [1][9]. Group 1: Asset Valuation and Market Interest - The assets in the Neuquen basin could be valued in billions, but exact valuation is uncertain due to undeveloped acreage and fluctuating commodity prices [1][9]. - Vaca Muerta remains attractive to producers, with only about 8% of the formation developed, and it holds the world's second-largest shale gas and fourth-largest shale oil resources according to U.S. government estimates [8]. Group 2: Shell's Strategic Moves - A full divestment from Vaca Muerta would be surprising as Shell was an early supporter of the region, especially as interest grows amid concerns over peak production in other major shale basins like the Permian [2]. - Shell's recent exit from the Argentina LNG project, following a reduction in planned capacity by YPF, indicates a broader reassessment of its exposure to Argentina [3]. Group 3: Shell's Operations in Argentina - Shell has been involved in the Vaca Muerta shale play since 2012, currently holding four majority-owned license blocks and minority stakes in three additional blocks operated by YPF, with production totaling around 15.6 million barrels in 2024 [5]. Group 4: Leadership and Portfolio Strategy - Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell has accelerated efforts to streamline its portfolio, selling assets due to underwhelming returns from previous investments in renewable energy [7]. - Recent divestments include plans to exit Syria's al-Omar oilfield and exploring sale options for its stake in LNG Canada, aligning with the potential Vaca Muerta divestment strategy [7]. Group 5: Economic Challenges - Despite rapid production growth in Vaca Muerta, challenges such as declining oil prices, higher production costs, and transportation bottlenecks could hinder future development [11]. - Drilling costs in Vaca Muerta are reported to be 35% higher than in the Permian basin, yet Shell's assets are believed to break even at Brent oil prices below $50 per barrel, making them competitive [11].

Summary of Key Points from Citi Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Energy** sector, particularly the **upstream investment** outlook for 2026, indicating an improving appetite for investment despite lingering crude price risks [4][5]. Global Upstream Spending Outlook - **Total Global Upstream Spending** is projected as follows (in billion USD): - 2025E: 247 - 2026E: 242 - 2027E: 247 - Notable changes: 2026 is expected to see a **2% decrease** compared to 2025, but a **2% increase** in 2027 compared to 2026 [5]. Regional Insights - **China**: Expected spending remains stable at **57 billion** for both 2026 and 2025, with a **3% increase** in 2027. - **Latin America**: Anticipated growth of **5%** from 2025 to 2026, reaching **28 billion**. - **Middle East/North Africa**: Slight decrease of **1%** in 2026, maintaining **84 billion**. - **Asia (Other) & Australia**: A significant drop of **27%** in 2026, down to **11 billion**. - **International Oil Companies (IOCs)**: Expected to decrease spending by **2%** in 2026, maintaining **61 billion** [5]. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. shale oil volumes are highly dependent on oil prices, with limited swing potential of a few hundred thousand barrels per day [14]. - The Delaware basin has seen a sharp drop in productivity, while other major basins show mixed results [14]. Brazil's Oil Production - Brazil's oil production is expected to increase due to a pipeline of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units, with Petrobras accounting for approximately **64%** of Brazil's total oil and gas production [15][21]. - Underinvestment in exploration is eroding reserve replacement, despite ongoing production growth [22]. Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Capital Expenditure - MENA capital expenditure is set to peak next year, with Saudi Arabia leading in capital expenditure, particularly in the Jafurah shale project [25]. - The UAE is increasing its midstream and LNG investments, while Qatar continues steady expansion [25]. LNG Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to add **50%** of new global LNG capacity, potentially absorbing most of the oversupply impact by 2030 [30]. - An estimated **6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)** of global oversupply is anticipated by 2030, with the U.S. absorbing a significant share [31]. - LNG supply is expected to exceed **35 bcfd** of capacity by 2030, but pricing may suffer as a result [32]. Refining Capacity and Valuations - Global refining capacity is set to rise, particularly in Asia, India, and the Middle East, while closures are expected in Europe and the U.S. [51]. - Current valuations in the refining sector are around historical averages, with FY26 estimates projected to be **70% higher** year-over-year [53]. Renewable Energy Insights - Proposed changes to renewable fuel volume obligations by the EPA could lead to higher Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing, with a significant increase in biomass-based diesel requirements [59]. Conclusion - The report indicates a cautious optimism in the energy sector, with investment opportunities in upstream oil and gas, particularly in regions like Brazil and the Middle East, while also highlighting potential risks associated with pricing and oversupply in the LNG market [4][5][25][31].

Core Insights - China's domestic crude oil production is experiencing significant growth, with national output projected to rise from 3.8 million b/d in 2020 to an average of 4.3 million b/d in 2025, marking a roughly 12% increase driven by accelerated drilling and restructuring of the upstream sector [5][11] - The restructuring of China's upstream began in 2020, transitioning to a market-oriented bidding framework for mining and hydrocarbon rights, allowing private companies to participate alongside state-owned enterprises [4] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC is leading in output growth, increasing production from 690,000 b/d in 2020 to about 900,000 b/d by 2025, supported by extensive offshore acreage [1] - PetroChina is the largest oil producer, averaging 2.5 million b/d in 2025, with a significant focus on unconventional exploration across various basins [2] - Sinopec is also expanding its production, with a target of 600,000 b/d in 2025, maintaining a strong presence in both onshore and offshore operations [1][2] Group 2: Regional Developments - Tianjin has seen the largest regional output increase, rising from 632,000 b/d in 2020 to 785,000 b/d in 2025, while Xinjiang's production increased from 571,000 to 649,000 b/d [3] - Heilongjiang's output has slightly decreased from 604,000 to 579,000 b/d, indicating challenges in maintaining production levels in mature fields [3] Group 3: Exploration and Discoveries - CNOOC's Bozhong 26-6 discovery in 2023 is notable for its rapid transition from discovery to production, estimated at 200 million m³ of oil and gas [6] - PetroChina confirmed 1.15 billion barrels of shale oil in place in the Gulong zone, with expected peak production of 130,000–140,000 b/d [6] - Sinopec's Qiluye-1 well in the Sichuan Basin has tested commercially viable shale oil and gas, indicating significant potential in Southwest China [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Despite increased domestic production, China's crude imports have remained steady at 10.5 million b/d since 2023, covering around 70–75% of total consumption [8][9] - The refining system in China is designed to process specific imported crude grades, ensuring continued reliance on foreign oil despite domestic production increases [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - China is expected to enter 2026 with a stronger domestic production base and continued momentum in unconventional and offshore exploration [10] - CNOOC is projected to add another 40,000 b/d in 2026, while PetroChina faces challenges as its resource base has shrunk by a net 200 million barrels in the past three years [10] - The trajectory of China's oil production remains upward, with potential for further increases as companies pursue ambitious drilling targets [11]

这是12月4日在黑龙江省大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县境内大庆古龙陆相页岩油国家级示范区拍摄的古 页1号站（无人机照片）。 （来源：廊坊日报） 转自：廊坊日报 新华社记者 王松 摄 中国石油大庆油田12月5日发布消息，经过5年集中勘探开发，大庆古龙页岩油年产量已突破百万吨，实 现页岩油规模化效益开采。 ...

中国石油大庆油田12月5日发布消息，经过5年集中勘探开发，大庆古龙页岩油年产量已突破百万吨，实 现页岩油规模化效益开采。 ...

Core Insights - Argentina's natural gas production in September 2025 decreased significantly, with a total of 4.9 billion cubic feet produced, marking a 6% decline from the previous month and a 12% drop year-on-year, primarily due to a sharp decline in shale gas production [1] - Despite the drop in natural gas output, Argentina's unconventional oil production reached a record high, driven by the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is crucial for the country's economic recovery [5][14] Natural Gas Production - September 2025 natural gas production was 4.9 billion cubic feet, down 6% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year [1] - Shale gas production specifically fell to 3.1 billion cubic feet per day, a 7.5% decrease from August and a 15.6% decline compared to September 2024 [1][6] Oil Production Overview - Argentina's average daily crude oil production for September 2025 was 833,874 barrels, a 2% increase from August and a 14% increase year-on-year, setting a new record [4] - Total crude oil output for September 2025 was 25 million barrels, slightly down by 1% from the previous month [4] Unconventional Oil Production - Unconventional oil output surged by 30% year-on-year to an average of 550,881 barrels per day, accounting for 66% of total petroleum production [3] - The Vaca Muerta shale is identified as a key driver for rising oil and gas production, with significant untapped potential [5][7] Economic Impact - The increase in oil production is expected to enhance hydrocarbon exports, improve the balance of trade, and boost fiscal income for the Argentine government [2] - Foreign energy investment in Argentina is on the rise, supported by recent economic reforms aimed at reducing barriers to investment [14] Vaca Muerta Shale Potential - The Vaca Muerta formation is estimated to contain 16 billion barrels of recoverable shale oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, making it one of the largest shale plays globally [7] - The formation's characteristics are comparable to or superior to U.S. shale plays, with a low breakeven price of $36 to $45 per barrel, making it profitable even in a low-price environment [10][11] Environmental Considerations - The crude oil from Vaca Muerta has a lower carbon footprint, producing 15.8 kilograms of CO2 per barrel, significantly less than the global average [13] - The light and sweet nature of the crude oil enhances its attractiveness for refining into low-emission fuels [12]

Group 1: Historical Context and Oil Market Dynamics - The global oil industry was historically dominated by a small group of Western firms known as the 'Seven Sisters' until the 1973 oil embargo, which marked a significant shift in the balance of power between oil-producing and consuming nations [1] - The 1973 oil crisis saw oil prices surge from approximately US$3 per barrel to nearly US$11 per barrel, contributing to a global economic slowdown, particularly in Western countries [1] - The U.S. has historically employed a 'divide and rule' strategy in the Middle East to manage the power of oil-producing nations, which culminated in the 2014-2016 Oil Price War with OPEC [3] Group 2: U.S. Shale Revolution and Global Energy Dynamics - The U.S. shale oil and gas sectors transformed the country from a major importer to a leading exporter, reversing the energy power dynamics established post-1973 [2] - Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now seeking U.S. expertise to develop their own shale resources, with significant investments in projects like Saudi Arabia's Jafurah shale gas development [4][5] - Saudi Arabia aims to increase its gas output by 80% by 2030, with the Jafurah Gas Plant expected to reach a sustainable production rate of 2.0 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030 [4] Group 3: UAE's Shale Gas Development - The UAE is focusing on developing its shale gas reserves to meet local energy demands and future export needs, collaborating with U.S. firms like EOG Resources [5][6] - The Ruwais Diyab Unconventional Gas Concession aims to produce 1 billion standard cubic feet per day before 2030, significantly enhancing ADNOC's production capabilities [6] Group 4: Global LNG Market and Future Demand - The importance of LNG in global energy markets has surged, especially following the geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to increased demand for alternative gas supplies [7] - Forecasts indicate that data center-related demand could contribute an additional 150-200 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2040, representing a 3.6-4.9% increase in global gas demand [7]

Sales Revenues and Profitability - The energy market faced challenges in Q3 2025, with sales revenue declining to EUR 282.7 million, a 27% decrease year-on-year. EBITDA fell to EUR 27.9 million (-31% year-on-year), and the reported net loss for the quarter was EUR 66.0 million [1][2] - Adjusted EBITDA, excluding temporary fair-value changes, was EUR 32.5 million, down 25% year-on-year. The adjusted net loss was EUR 61.4 million, which included impairments of EUR 39 million for shale oil production assets [1][2] Market Conditions - Lower profitability was attributed to declining electricity prices in the Baltics and reduced shale-oil sales volumes due to maintenance shutdowns. However, the distribution segment showed strong performance [2] - The CFO highlighted significant developments in the Baltic energy sector, including desynchronization from the Russian grid, which enhances energy independence and creates opportunities for Eesti Energia [3] Strategic Developments - The company plans to focus on completing ongoing developments and improving efficiency throughout 2025, with structural changes set to take effect in 2026, introducing three business lines: Distribution, Electricity, and Industry [4] - The strategic direction aims to establish a balanced portfolio of renewable generation, dispatchable power, and flexibility services to ensure reliable service and long-term value creation [5] Renewable Generation and Electricity Sales - Sales revenue from renewable generation and electricity sales decreased to EUR 152.6 million, a 31% decline year-on-year, primarily due to lower market prices despite stable sales volumes [5] - Renewable electricity output increased by 5% to 369 GWh, driven by new wind farms, while retail electricity sales volumes decreased by 6% [6] Non-Renewable Electricity Production - Revenue from non-renewable electricity production dropped by 60% year-on-year to EUR 15.4 million, with production from oil-shale-based units down 83% due to maintenance and low market prices [7] - The segment EBITDA was EUR -6.6 million, marking a decline compared to the previous year [8] Distribution Segment - Distribution service revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to EUR 73.1 million, supported by a 4% increase in sales volume [11] - Distribution EBITDA improved significantly to EUR 27.4 million (+55% year-on-year), driven by higher margins and increased sales volume [11] Shale Oil Segment - The shale-oil segment experienced a 69% decrease in sales revenue to EUR 11.6 million, with sales volume down 60% to 37 thousand tonnes [12] - Segment EBITDA was EUR -6.2 million, reflecting lower margins and significantly reduced sales volumes [13] Other Products and Services - Revenue from other products and services increased by 11% year-on-year to EUR 30.0 million, driven by growth in flexibility and frequency-reserve services [14] - EBITDA for this segment rose to EUR 4.3 million, with notable increases in flexibility services [15] Investments - The Group's investments in Q3 2025 totaled EUR 104.4 million, a 37% decrease year-on-year, as large renewable projects near completion [16] - Distribution-network investments reached EUR 40.7 million, supporting upgrades and reliability improvements [17] Financing and Liquidity - The Group's borrowings at the end of Q3 2025 amounted to EUR 1.637 billion, with a strong liquidity buffer of EUR 644 million [18] - Key financing developments included the acquisition of the remaining 2.8% stake in Enefit Green, leading to its delisting [19] Future Outlook - The Group is preparing for a transformation starting in 2026, which will enhance profitability and competitiveness through a simplified structure [22] - Strategic changes are expected to drive earnings growth and strengthen cash flows while supporting the transition to a carbon-neutral energy system [23]