ab 22 December 2025 Global Research China Economic Comment China Weekly: Weak Dec growth, fiscal under- spending YTD, subdued Nov data High frequency: Subdued home sales, softer port, weaker auto sales in Dec 30-city property sales stayed in a deep YoY contraction of -30% in the first 20 days of December (vs. -33% YoY in November) on a high base from policy stimulus last year, with the weakness extended across all tier cities. Port cargo throughput growth edged down to 2% YoY in the first 14 days from 3% Yo ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China's Economic Conditions**: The report highlights the current economic conditions in China, focusing on various sectors including real estate, trade, and fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments - **Property Sales Decline**: Property sales in 30 major cities dropped significantly to -25% YoY in the first 18 days of October from a growth of 7% YoY in September, indicating a substantial slowdown due to a high base effect from previous policy stimulus [2][17] - **Weakening Auto Sales**: Auto retail sales fell to -8% YoY in the first 12 days of October, down from 6% YoY in September, reflecting a decline in consumer demand [2][13] - **Port Activity**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 2% YoY in early October from 7% YoY in September, suggesting a slowdown in trade activities [2][18] - **Container Freight Index**: The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by -4% WoW, averaging a -31% YoY decline, indicating challenges in shipping and logistics [2][16] - **CPI and PPI Trends**: September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight improvement to -0.3% YoY from -0.4% YoY, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) narrowed its decline to -2.3% YoY from -2.9% YoY, reflecting mixed inflationary pressures [3][27] - **Total Social Financing (TSF)**: TSF growth edged down to 8.7% YoY, with new RMB loans recorded at RMB 1.29 trillion, which was softer than expected and about RMB 300 billion below the previous year [4][20] - **Trade Growth**: China's export growth accelerated to 8.3% YoY in September, up from 4.4% YoY, with imports also surprising positively at 7.4% YoY, marking the strongest growth since April 2024 [6][30] Additional Important Insights - **Fiscal Conditions**: General fiscal revenue growth improved to 2.6% YoY in September, with tax revenue increasing significantly, while local land sales revenue showed a narrowing decline [7][24] - **US-China Trade Relations**: There are signs of de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, with discussions for a new round of trade talks anticipated, which could impact future tariffs and trade policies [8] - **Upcoming Economic Data**: Expectations for upcoming economic data include a narrower YoY decline in property sales and continued deep declines in property investment, alongside a moderated GDP growth forecast of 4.7% YoY for Q3 [9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and its implications for various sectors.

China Weekly: May Mixed Growth, Softer Fiscal Condition; June Weaker Home Sales High frequency: weaker home sales in June, softer port activities 30-city property sales declined further to -9% YoY in the first 21 days of June from - 3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -4% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 12% YoY and tier 3 cities declined by -6% YoY. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both softened to -1% YoY and 2% YoY in the first 15 days (vs 4% YoY and 7% YoY in May). ...