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工业硅:关注上游工厂减产,多晶硅:关注市场信息发酵
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to upstream factory production cuts; for polysilicon, attention should be given to market information fermentation [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market** - Si2605: The closing price was 8,860 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 225,225 lots, a decrease of 140,976 lots; the open interest was 203,994 lots, down 12,226 lots [3] - PS2605: The closing price was 57,920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 23,571 lots, a decrease of 19,142 lots; the open interest was 76,368 lots, down 6,967 lots [3] - **Basis and Price** - Industrial silicon spot premiums and discounts varied with different benchmarks. For example, the premium to East - China Si5530 was +390 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan from T - 1 [3] - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1; the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 53,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1 [3] - **Profit** - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 were - 2,466.5 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1; for Yunnan new - standard 553, it was - 4,774 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [3] - Polysilicon enterprise profit was 8.7 yuan/kg, up 0.9 yuan from T - 1 [3] - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.7 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5 [3] - Polysilicon factory inventory was 30.6 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to T - 5 [3] - **Raw Material Cost** - The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [3] - The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,475 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 31st, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High - Quality Development of Power Grids". By 2030, a new power grid platform will be initially established, with the backbone grid and distribution grid as the important foundation and the smart micro - grid as a useful supplement. The scale of "West - to - East Power Transmission" will exceed 420 million kilowatts, and the new inter - provincial power mutual - assistance capacity will be about 40 million kilowatts, supporting the proportion of new energy power generation to reach about 30% [3][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]