August 21, 2025 03:42 AM GMT Chemicals | Asia Pacific M Idea Anti-Involution: China, Korea and Pushbacks Our counter-consensus bullish view on chemicals has gotten only pushback. Corporate earnings are still challenged, but free cash flows have started outperforming and got most attention in our conversations. Volume growth is being closely watched to get conviction on a cycle turn. Key Takeaways Investor expectations for the commodity chemical cycle are the most bearish we have seen in 20 years of watching ...

Core Insights - Sisecam reported consolidated net sales of 101 billion TL for the first half of 2025, with international sales accounting for 62% of total sales [2][3] - The company made total investments of 14.6 billion TL and achieved exports of 483 million USD during the same period [2][3] Financial Performance - Consolidated net sales reached 101 billion TL in H1 2025 [2][3] - International sales, including exports and sales from foreign production facilities, constituted 62% of total sales [2][3] - Total investments amounted to 14.6 billion TL [2][3] - Exports were recorded at 483 million USD [2][3] - Production figures included 2.8 million tons of glass, 2.2 million tons of soda ash, and 1.9 million tons of industrial raw materials [2] Strategic Focus - The CEO highlighted the impact of global macroeconomic and geopolitical factors on the business environment, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth and profitability [3] - Sisecam launched an "Efficiency Management Program" to enhance operational efficiency and maintain a strong balance sheet [4] - The company is realigning business plans and organizational structures to improve agility and responsiveness to market changes [4] Operational Developments - Sisecam is restructuring its architectural glass capacity in Europe and optimizing production through cold repairs and maintenance investments [4] - A new flat glass facility in Tarsus is set to begin production in Q1 2026, with frosted glass and energy glass processing lines starting slightly ahead of schedule in Q4 2025 [4] - The company is consolidating its automotive glass production facilities in Slovakia to improve efficiency and streamline operations [6] Growth Initiatives - Soda ash production remains a key focus, with ongoing investments in the U.S. market, including a planned annual capacity of 5 million tons for the Pacific Soda project [7] - The Wyoming facility, operational since 2019, has an annual capacity of 2.5 million tons and is noted for its low carbon footprint [7]

Core Viewpoint - Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) reported a decline in net income and revenues for Q2 2025, primarily due to weaker coal and soda ash prices, but still managed to generate significant free cash flow [2][8][13] Financial Performance - NRP's net income for Q2 2025 was $34.2 million, a decrease of 25.7% from $46.1 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Total revenues fell 23.6% year over year to $50.1 million, influenced by lower metallurgical and thermal coal prices and reduced soda ash sales prices [2][8] - Diluted earnings per common unit increased to $2.52 from $2.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Operating cash flow decreased to $45.6 million from $56.6 million, while free cash flow dropped to $46.3 million from $57.3 million [2] Segment Performance - The Mineral Rights segment, the largest contributor, saw net income decline by $13 million to $39.7 million, with coal royalty revenues per ton averaging $5.17, down from $5.98 a year ago [3] - The Soda Ash segment recorded net income of $2.5 million, down $1.1 million due to lower sales prices amid global oversupply [4] - Corporate and Financing segment improved net income by $2.3 million, aided by lower interest expenses [5] Management Insights - Management emphasized the resilience of free cash flow generation, reporting $46 million for the quarter and $203 million over the last 12 months, attributed to a decade-long deleveraging strategy [6] - Expectations are set to pay off nearly all debt by mid-2026 and to begin increasing unitholder distributions by August 2026 [7][10] Market Conditions - Current market conditions for coal and soda ash remain challenging, with excess supply and low prices expected to persist [11] - Factors contributing to revenue and profit declines include stagnant steel demand, high thermal coal inventories, and reduced soda ash demand due to sluggish construction activity [8] Future Outlook - NRP is on track to eliminate nearly all debt by mid-2026, which would allow for significant increases in distributions starting August 2026 [10] - Management anticipates that metallurgical and thermal coal pricing will remain muted through year-end, with soda ash markets unlikely to recover until supply rationalization occurs [11] Other Developments - NRP declared a second-quarter 2025 cash distribution of 75 cents per common unit, consistent with the first quarter of 2025 [12] - There has been no significant progress in carbon-neutral initiatives during the period, although long-term opportunities are still recognized [12]

Core Insights - The company reported a continued solid EBITDA margin and free cash flow delivery despite a soft demand environment in the first half of 2025 [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, net sales were €1,102 million, down 7.8% year-on-year and 3.8% organically [2] - EBITDA for Q2 2025 decreased to €230 million, a decline of 15.4% year-on-year and 12.4% organically [2] - The EBITDA margin was 20.9%, down from 22.8% in Q2 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [2] - Free Cash Flow (FCF) in Q2 2025 was €54 million, a significant drop of 54.8% compared to the previous year [2] - Underlying net profit from continuing operations was €99 million in Q2 2025, compared to €116 million in Q2 2024 [5] Market Conditions - The business activity in the first half of 2025 was affected by uncertainty surrounding tariff discussions and geopolitical tensions, leading to a soft market demand environment [3][4] - The company anticipates that market conditions will remain challenging throughout the second half of 2025 [4] Cost Management - Structural cost savings initiatives delivered €29 million in Q2 2025, with cumulative savings reaching €165 million since the start of 2024 [5] - The company now expects total cost savings to exceed the previous indication of €200 million by the end of 2025 [6] 2025 Outlook - The company has revised its 2025 underlying EBITDA outlook to between €880 million and €930 million, while confirming a Free Cash Flow target of around €300 million [5][8] - The maximum capital expenditure (Capex) is set at €300 million, reflecting a focus on cash generation and dividend cover [8]

Group 1 - Solvay is facing a challenging market environment in Q2 2025, influenced by global tariff discussions and geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand and slower order books, particularly in soda ash end-markets and the Coatis business unit [1] - The company has updated its 2025 outlook, now expecting underlying EBITDA to be between €880 million and €930 million, down from a previous range of €1.0 billion to €1.1 billion [2] - Solvay anticipates Free Cash Flow from continued operations to be around €300 million, with a maximum of €300 million in capital expenditures, reflecting a focus on cash generation and dividend coverage [3] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, Solvay expects an underlying EBITDA of approximately €230 million, which includes a one-off revenue gain of around €20 million from the Special Chem business unit [3] - The company will not provide further comments ahead of the Q2 2025 earnings release scheduled for July 30 [4] - Solvay, a leading chemical company with a history dating back to 1863, reported underlying net sales of €4.7 billion in 2024 and is committed to sustainability and a carbon-neutral future by 2050 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates resilient performance supported by a diversified portfolio and cost savings despite facing an uncertain macro-environment and challenges in demand [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 underlying net sales were €1,122 million, down 6.6% from Q1 2024, with an organic decline of 5.8% [2][4]. - Underlying EBITDA for Q1 2025 decreased to €250 million, a 5.9% decline year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 22.3%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points [2][4]. - Free Cash Flow (FCF) in Q1 2025 was €42 million, a significant drop of 66.5% compared to €126 million in Q1 2024 [2][4]. - The return on capital employed (ROCE) fell to 17.2%, down 2.7 percentage points from 19.8% in Q1 2024 [2][4]. Cost Management and Savings - Structural cost savings initiatives yielded €27 million in Q1 2025, bringing total cumulative savings to €137 million since the beginning of 2024 [4]. - The company aims to achieve total cost savings of €200 million by the end of 2025 [8]. 2025 Outlook - The company expects Q2 2025 underlying net sales to remain stable sequentially compared to Q1 2025, while underlying EBITDA is anticipated to decrease due to a one-off gain in Q1 and increased stranded costs from exiting a service agreement [3][4]. - The guidance for underlying EBITDA in 2025 is expected to reach the lower half of the range of €1.0 billion to €1.1 billion [8]. - Free cash flow guidance for 2025 is confirmed at around €300 million, primarily expected in the second half of the year [8]. Market Conditions - The macro-environment remains uncertain, leading to cautious behavior from customers, particularly affecting the Soda Ash segment in March [4]. - Despite these challenges, most other business segments have shown resilient performance [4].

Report Title - South China Glass and Soda Ash Data Weekly Report 20250426 [2] Core Views - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure due to weak demand and high mid - upstream inventory. The price may continue to be under pressure, and short - term fluctuations may increase. Variables such as ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement need to be tracked [3][4]. - For soda ash, although there will be more maintenance in May, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a long - term surplus. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. Demand has a slight improvement, but there is a risk of the photovoltaic industry returning to an over - supply situation [5][6]. Glass Analysis Supply - At the end of April, the daily melting volume of glass may slightly decline to 156,000 tons. Three production lines are planned to shut down at the end of April, and one new line was ignited in April [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 heavy boxes (+0.61%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.25%. The inventory days are 29.4 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The inventory structure shows that upstream factory warehouses are accumulating inventory while mid - stream is reducing inventory [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are: - 153 yuan for natural gas, + 145 yuan for coal - made gas, and - 38 yuan for petroleum coke. The increase in the price of imported petroleum coke in Hubei has pushed up costs by 80 - 100 yuan [3]. Demand - As of April 15, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory of raw glass is 11.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [3]. Strategy - Due to weak demand and high inventory, the glass price has dropped significantly. Future price trends depend on ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [4]. Soda Ash Analysis Supply - The weekly production is 755,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 17,800 tons), including 339,100 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 5,300 tons) and 416,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 12,500 tons). Maintenance is expected to increase in May [5]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.691 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,300 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 338,500 tons (a decrease of 44,700 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.0295 million tons, with a total de - stocking of 180,000 - 190,000 tons from March to April [5]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of double - ton soda ash by the combined soda process is + 255.5 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is 17.5 yuan/ton. Profits have improved week - on - week due to the decline in raw material prices [5]. Demand - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is increasing, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash inferred from float and photovoltaic glass has improved. However, the photovoltaic industry may return to an over - supply situation after the end of the rush - installation period [6]. Strategy - From May, maintenance is expected to increase, and supply disturbances will also increase. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. The overall supply - demand pattern remains in long - term surplus, and price fluctuations may increase [6].