Flash | 07 Jan 2026 03:59:11 ET │ 12 pages China Solar Power Solar Product Prices Largely Steady This Week amid Soft Demand; We Assume PRC Solar Installations to -24% YoY in 2026E CITI'S TAKE Weekly solar product prices have increased 1-2% wow for upstream polysilicon materials and downstream solar modules this week, likely supported by anti-involution measures, while prices declined 1% for solar cells. PRC annual module output was -1.2% yoy to 563.2GW in 2025, according to SMM, affected by the absence of y ...

29 December 2025 | 11:03AM CST Equity Research CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION Dec-25: Increasingly wait-and-see stance with a new round of price hike proposed Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and the spot prices/input costs implied cash GP & EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Key highlights in Dec MTD: Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a re ...

Group 1: Renewable Energy Developments - Renew Energy has signed a long-term agreement with Google for a 150 megawatt solar project in Rajasthan, aimed at supporting Google's decarbonization goals and ensuring project bankability [1] - The solar project is expected to be operational by 2026 and will generate approximately 425,000 megawatt hours annually, increasing Renew's corporate portfolio to 2.7 gigawatts [2] Group 2: Advancements in Nuclear and Solar Technology - Oaklo has completed a critical test campaign for its Pluto fast test reactor, achieving a significant technical milestone under the Department of Energy Reactor pilot program, demonstrating inherent safety and generating benchmark data for future commercial reactors [2] - T1 Energy has commenced construction on its G2 Austin solar cell fabrication facility, which will significantly enhance the US solar manufacturing supply chain, with the first phase expected to exceed current US silicon solar cell capacity [3] - EVgo has successfully deployed over 40% of its charging stations this year using pre-fabricated modular skids, surpassing its year-end target and reducing installation costs by about 15% through a partnership with Miller Electric [3] Group 3: Charging Infrastructure - The pre-fabricated 350 kW fast charging stations are now operational across multiple US states, allowing for faster rollouts, supporting local job creation, and capable of charging up to 14 vehicles simultaneously with improved customer amenities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Masdar, a state-owned company and West Asia's largest renewable energy firm, has withdrawn from a consortium that aimed to take ReNew Energy Global private, leading to a significant drop in ReNew's stock price and ending the proposed transaction [1][2][4]. Company Developments - The consortium revised its offer to $8.15 per share, a 15.3% increase from the initial bid of $7.07 per share made in December 2024, valuing ReNew at $2.8 billion as of the end of October [1][7]. - Following Masdar's exit, ReNew's market capitalization fell to $2.02 billion, reflecting a loss of over 30% since its listing in 2021 [2][1]. - ReNew's shares have consistently traded below their peak of approximately $12 in February 2021, indicating a potential opportunity for share buybacks as the Indian market is expected to grow [6][5]. Financial Position - ReNew has cash and cash equivalents amounting to $1 billion, with no immediate need to raise capital, according to the company's CFO [5]. - The proposed acquisition would have resulted in an $896 million payout to ReNew's shareholders, highlighting the perceived growth potential of the company [7]. Strategic Plans - ReNew's portfolio includes approximately 18.5 GW of clean energy projects, with ongoing construction of solar module and cell manufacturing facilities [10][16]. - The company plans to invest Rs 82,000 crore in Andhra Pradesh, focusing on high technology areas such as solar ingot and wafer manufacturing, as well as green hydrogen projects [11][16]. Market Context - The withdrawal of Masdar coincides with a broader geopolitical shift among Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which are increasingly investing in the US and artificial intelligence sectors [13][16]. - Analysts suggest that Masdar's decision may have been influenced by prolonged negotiations and the insistence of ReNew's management on retaining significant management rights [8][4].

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, particularly the solar energy market, including polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, modules, and solar glass products [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends - **Polysilicon Prices**: Average market prices for n-type grade rod-type polysilicon decreased by -0.1% week-over-week (wow) to Rmb51.9/kg, while granular silicon prices remained unchanged at Rmb50.5/kg [2]. - **Wafer Prices**: Prices for n-type wafers fell by -2.3% wow to Rmb1.26/W for 182mm products and -1.8% wow to Rmb1.68/W for 210mm products due to inventory pressure [3]. - **Solar Cell Prices**: Average prices for TOPCon solar cells decreased by -2.6% wow to Rmb0.30/W [3]. - **Module Prices**: Average market prices for TOPCon modules increased slightly by 0.2% wow to Rmb0.67/W for utility-scale projects, but remained stable for distributed projects [4][5]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for solar glass products decreased by -1.5% wow to Rmb12.8/m2 for 2.0mm and -1.3% wow to Rmb19.8/m2 for 3.2mm products [6]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory Levels**: Polysilicon inventory at producer plants rose by +3.1% wow to 267k tonnes, while wafer inventory increased by 5.3% wow to 18.4GW [2][3]. - **Demand Decline**: Domestic solar installation demand in China dropped by -50.9% year-over-year (yoy) to 28.7GW in 3Q25, while module export volume grew by +43.6% yoy to 78.8GW in the same period [1][5]. - **Future Projections**: Monthly polysilicon output is expected to decline by 14% month-over-month (mom) to 120k tonnes in November, with an annual output forecasted to drop by 27.8% yoy to 1,330k tonnes in 2025 [2]. Market Dynamics - **Anti-Involution Policies**: The anticipated increase in module prices is driven by anti-involution policies in China's solar industry and the potential removal of VAT rebates for module exports by the end of 2025 [1][5]. - **Production Adjustments**: Certain polysilicon plants in Southwest China, including Tongwei's facilities, suspended production due to weakened demand and increased electricity prices [2]. Investment Preferences - **Preferred Companies**: The report favors inverter manufacturers such as **Sungrow** and **Deye**, which are expected to benefit from the growth in energy storage systems. Polysilicon producers are also favored due to higher average selling prices (ASP) and potential capacity consolidation [1]. Additional Important Information - **Risks**: Key risks for companies like Deye and Sungrow include lower-than-expected demand for energy storage, increased price competition, and potential trade tariffs against Chinese products in overseas markets [20][22]. - **Valuation Models**: Target prices for companies are based on discounted cash flow (DCF) models, with specific assumptions regarding growth rates and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [19][21][23]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China Renewable Energy sector, particularly in solar energy.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Solar Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China solar industry**, particularly the **polysilicon sector** and its efforts to combat "involution" [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Signs in Polysilicon Industry**: - Recent announcements from JA Solar and comments from industry leaders indicate a collective effort to address market challenges and improve self-discipline within the sector [1]. - The Deputy Secretary of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association expressed confidence in the industry's ability to implement anti-involution measures successfully [1]. 2. **Expectations for Pricing and Capacity**: - The anti-involution initiative is expected to succeed, leading to meaningful exits of polysilicon capacity, which will improve the supply-demand balance and alleviate overcapacity issues [2]. - Enhanced self-discipline is anticipated to sustain higher utilization rates, drive price recovery, and improve profitability for polysilicon firms in the medium term [2]. 3. **Current Market Conditions**: - Polysilicon prices remained stable at **CNY 50-52/kg** as of the week ending November 12, while wafer prices dropped by **3.0-3.7%** due to reduced demand from downstream solar cells [3]. - Solar cell prices were weak at **CNY 0.28-0.30/W**, attributed to sluggish shipments and high inventory levels [3]. 4. **Production Forecasts**: - Monthly production of polysilicon is expected to drop by approximately **20,000 tonnes** month-on-month to around **120,000 tonnes** in November, driven by lower utilization rates in Southwestern China [4]. - Solar wafer production is projected to contract by **5%** month-on-month to about **57GW**, while solar cell production is expected to decrease by **2%** month-on-month to **57GW** [4]. 5. **Price Trends**: - The price trends for various components of the solar supply chain indicate stability in polysilicon and module prices, while wafer and cell prices are experiencing downward pressure [6][12]. Additional Important Information - The industry is showing a heightened sensitivity to market chatter, which could disrupt market stability, indicating a cautious approach among producers [1]. - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in pricing and profitability in the medium term, despite short-term challenges such as high inventories and seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the solar industry in China, particularly focusing on polysilicon and its market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic performance indicators for October 2025 and projections for Q4 2025 and 2026-2027 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Slowdown**: October 2025 saw a broad slowdown in economic growth, with significant declines in property activities, fixed asset investment (FAI), exports, and industrial production (IP) [2][3][7] 2. **Property Market Decline**: The property sector experienced a year-on-year contraction of 23% in FAI, with property sales dropping by 18.8% and new starts declining by 29.5% [2][7][8] 3. **FAI Weakness**: Overall FAI contracted by 11.2% YoY, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments also showing significant declines of 6.7% and 12.1% respectively [8][27] 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth edged down to 2.9% YoY, influenced by a high base effect from trade-in subsidies, particularly in home appliances and automobiles [2][15][27] 5. **Export Contraction**: Exports unexpectedly contracted by 1.1% YoY, marking the first decline since February, attributed to a high base effect and reduced demand for IT products [2][18][27] 6. **Industrial Production**: IP growth slowed to 4.9% YoY, with notable declines in key sectors such as special purpose equipment and ferrous metals [14][27] 7. **Inflation Trends**: October CPI increased to 0.2% YoY, while PPI showed a slight narrowing of decline to -2.1% YoY, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [21][27] 8. **Credit Growth**: Credit growth decreased to 8.5% YoY, with new RMB loans significantly lower than the previous year, reflecting subdued private credit demand [22][27] Future Projections 1. **Q4 2025 Expectations**: Anticipated GDP growth for Q4 2025 is around 4.2% YoY, with continued weakness in consumption and property markets [3][27] 2. **2026 Economic Outlook**: GDP growth is expected to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026, with a continued decline in exports and a resilient domestic economy despite ongoing property downturns [5][29][30] 3. **Policy Easing**: Modest fiscal and monetary policy easing is underway, including RMB 500 billion in special financial tools and potential cuts in policy rates and mortgage rates by 2026 [4][28] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Confidence**: The consumer confidence index has shown slight recovery, reflecting improved sentiment from the equity market, although it remains below pre-COVID levels [15][27] - **Sector-Specific Performance**: High-tech industries continue to show robust growth, contrasting with the overall economic slowdown [14][27] - **Investment Activity**: The introduction of new financing tools from policy banks may provide marginal support to infrastructure and manufacturing investments in the coming months [8][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the property market, investment trends, and policy responses.

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the solar industry in China, particularly the dynamics of upstream and downstream pricing, inventory levels, and profitability trends for companies in the sector [1][2]. Key Highlights - **Upstream Price Dynamics**: - Upstream price hikes paused in October, contrasting with a 5% month-over-month increase in September. This pause is attributed to weaker downstream price acceptance, exacerbated by a significant rise in silver paste prices, which increased by 18% month-to-date and constitutes 30%-40% of non-silicon cell processing costs [6][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: - Total poly inventory rose by 7% month-over-month to 275GW in October, with approximately 150GW at poly factory sites, 110GW at wafer factory sites, and 15GW through future contracts [6]. - Glass producer-side inventory days surged by 63% compared to the end of September, reaching 25 days in October, indicating muted shipment activity [6]. - **Production Estimates**: - Monthly poly production is expected to decline by 6% in November and December compared to October, primarily due to capacity suspensions in Central Western China [6]. - New solar glass capacity continues to increase, with one line of 1.2k tons/day launched and multiple new lines scheduled for the near future [6]. - **Export Volumes**: - Cell and module export volumes decreased by 10% and 4% month-over-month, respectively, to 11GW and 28GW. This decline is mainly due to reduced restocking activities as the overseas peak demand season in Europe and the Middle East concludes [6]. Profitability Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - The market is currently pricing in 2026 prices for poly, wafer, module, and glass at Rmb58/kg, Rmb1.8/pc, Rmb0.66/w, and Rmb13/sqm, respectively. This contrasts with Goldman Sachs' estimates of Rmb42/kg, Rmb1.3/pc, Rmb0.67/w, and Rmb10/sqm, indicating an average downside risk of 34% for the covered companies [3][16]. - **Cash Profitability Trends**: - Spot price implied cash profitability remained largely flat in the upstream sector while deteriorating in the downstream sector [10]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for poly-tier 1 was reported at 37%, with a notable decrease in margins for cell and module segments [10]. Sector Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and newly imposed restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to only mildly improve the pricing outlook for poly. Downstream players may still need to reduce selling prices to gain market share amid weak demand [7]. - The long-term profitability outlook remains low without a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [7]. Investment Preferences - The analysis indicates a preference for specific segments within the solar value chain: - **Buy Recommendations**: Film (Hangzhou First), High-efficiency Module (Longi) - **Neutral Recommendations**: Granular Poly (GCL Tech) - **Sell Recommendations**: Glass (Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar), Rod Poly (Daqo ADR/A, Tongwei), Wafer (TZE), and Equipment (Shenzhen S.C. and Maxwell) [7]. Additional Insights - The production-to-demand ratio for the sub-sector is projected to increase to 116% in October from 113% in September, indicating a potential oversupply situation [11]. - Producer-side inventory days are likely to rise to 34 days in October from 30 days in September, further highlighting inventory concerns [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the solar industry in China.

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Renewable Energy** sector, particularly the solar energy market, including solar glass, polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and modules. Key Points and Arguments Policy Developments - The **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** and other Chinese administrations issued a new policy titled "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at promoting low carbon and digitalization in the construction materials industry. This policy is expected to facilitate the consolidation of solar glass production by shifting focus from 'project management' to 'planning oriented', which may help eliminate inefficient production capacity [1][1][1]. Price Trends - **Midstream solar product prices** (wafer, solar cells, and solar glass) increased by **1-3% week-over-week (wow)**, while upstream polysilicon and downstream solar module prices remained stable [1][1][1]. - **Polysilicon prices** saw a slight increase of **0.2% wow**, averaging **Rmb52.3/kg** for n-type grade rod-type polysilicon, while granular silicon prices remained unchanged at **Rmb49.5/kg**. Polysilicon inventory at producer plants decreased by **6.8% wow** to **204k tonnes** [2][2][2]. - **Wafer prices** for n-type products rose by **1.5% wow** to **Rmb1.35/W** for 182mm products and **1.2% wow** to **Rmb1.70/W** for 210mm products. Total wafer inventory increased by **1.9% wow** to **16.9GW** [3][3][3]. - **Solar cell prices** increased by **2.5% wow** to **Rmb0.32/W** for TOPCon products, with expected output rising by **1.5% wow** to **60.0GW** in September [3][3][3]. - **Module prices** experienced a slight decline, with average prices for TOPCon modules decreasing by **0.6% wow** to **Rmb0.66/W** for utility-scale projects [4][4][4]. Demand and Production Insights - **Solar installation demand** in China remains muted due to tariff uncertainties, but module export demand has grown significantly, with a **41.9% year-over-year (yoy)** increase in module export volume to **26.6GW** in August [6][6][6]. - Monthly module output is expected to rise by **2.2% month-over-month (mom)** and **2.4% yoy** to **50.3GW** in September [6][6][6]. - **Solar glass prices** increased by **1.1% wow** to **Rmb13.5/m2** for 2.0mm products, while the inventory period decreased by **6.8% wow** to **15.0 days** [7][7][7]. Company Recommendations - The report expresses a favorable outlook on companies such as **Sungrow** and **Deye**, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage systems. Additionally, it recommends buying shares in upstream polysilicon makers like **GCL**, **Tongwei**, **Daqo**, and **TBEA** due to anticipated industry consolidation driven by anti-involution measures [1][1][1]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights the potential for increased capacity utilization among module companies to produce more with low-cost materials amid rising upstream solar product prices [6][6][6]. - The operational daily solar glass melting capacity remained unchanged at **89,290 tonnes**, but some companies plan to increase capacity due to improved profitability [7][7][7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Renewable Energy sector.

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry in China, specifically tracking profitability trends and supply/demand dynamics within the solar value chain [1][5]. Key Highlights - **Module Price Trends**: Early signs of module price increases were noted, with China Huadian's 20GW solar project bidding starting at an average of Rmb0.71/w, which is 6% higher than the current spot module pricing of Rmb0.67/w. This price hike followed a joint meeting by six ministries on August 19 [5]. - **Supply/Demand Outlook**: The monthly supply/demand ratio is expected to worsen, estimated to be between 1.4X-2.1X in August, down from 1.3X-1.7X in July. This deterioration is attributed to slow supply cut adjustments, with increased inventory pressures in the Poly and Module segments [5][12]. - **Production Increases**: Production across the value chain is expected to increase by 5%-20% month-over-month in August, with specific increases of +19% for Poly, +5% for Wafer and Cell, and +12% for Module [11]. - **Inventory Dynamics**: End-August inventory is projected to decline significantly in the Cell and Glass segments due to higher module production demand, while Poly and Module inventories are expected to rise [12]. Financial Metrics - **Profitability Trends**: Cash gross profit margins (GPM) and EBITDA margins have shown improvement in upstream segments but have deteriorated in downstream segments. For example, the cash GPM for Poly is at 29%, while for Modules, it is at -3% [6][9]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, spot prices for most value chain products remained stable, except for a 6% increase in Glass prices due to rapid inventory depletion [17][21]. Sector View - The report suggests that the solar sector is at a cyclical bottom, with a potential inflection point expected around the second half of 2026. However, normalized profitability is likely to remain low due to a slowdown in demand growth in China [5]. - **Investment Preferences**: The report indicates a preference for investments in Cell & Module and Film segments, while showing a bearish outlook on Glass, Poly, Wafer, and Equipment segments [5]. Additional Insights - **Challenges in Implementation**: The anticipated price hikes and profitability improvements are contingent on effective implementation of policies, which currently face challenges due to a lack of fiscal support and changes in local government incentives [5]. - **Diverse Inventory Days**: The average inventory days across the value chain are expected to remain at around 40 days in August, reflecting a diverse inventory situation relative to demand [12][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the solar industry in China, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.