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摩根士丹利:中国游戏_释放潜力_新游戏发布推动市场估值
摩根· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Ratings - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on 37IE, an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating on G-bits, and an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating on Perfect World [1][3][4]. Core Insights - China's game industry has experienced high-teens percentage revenue growth year-to-date, surpassing the previous year's growth of 8%, indicating improved demand despite macroeconomic challenges [2]. - The report highlights successful new game releases and the stabilization of evergreen games as key factors driving the rebound in performance for 37IE, G-bits, and Perfect World [2][10]. Summary by Company 37IE - The price target is set at Rmb23.00, reflecting a 15x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, with an attractive 6% dividend yield [3][17]. - Anticipated revenue growth is supported by new titles such as "Soul Land," expected to generate Rmb300-500 million in its first month and Rmb1.5-2 billion overall in 2025 [16][17]. - The company has a robust pipeline with over 40 self-developed and licensed games, indicating sustained growth momentum [16][34]. Perfect World - The price target is raised to Rmb16.30, based on an 18x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, reflecting strong growth expectations driven by the anticipated title "Neverness to Everness" [4][29]. - The company is expected to see an 18% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025, with significant contributions from new titles [28][32]. - The release of "Zhuxian 2" on August 7 is also expected to be a key growth driver [4][31]. G-bits - The price target is increased to Rmb330, derived from a 15x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, reflecting a busy 2025 but a slower 2026 due to a weaker pipeline [5][22]. - Revenue growth is projected at 22% and 29% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in 2Q25, driven by new titles [20][22]. - The company is expected to experience alternating busy and slow product years, with 2025 being particularly strong [18][22].
花旗:中国互联网_158 款游戏获批_11 款进口游戏;腾讯、网易获得 21 个版号
花旗· 2025-06-30 01:02
Flash | 24 Jun 2025 18:53:21 ET │ 10 pages China Internet 158 Games Approved in Jun 2025 W/ 11 Imported; Tencent/NTES Obtained 2/1 Titles CITI'S TAKE On Jun 24, the NPPA released the sixth batch of game approvals in 2025 with a total of 158 games (147/11 domestic/imported titles). This represents the largest monthly batch in the past 3 years. Cumulatively in 1H15, 812 games have been approved (757/55 domestic/imported games), 18/12% higher than 689/728 approved in 1H/2H24, indicating an increasing new game ...
花旗:中国互联网_中国网络游戏行业期刊(2025 年 6 月版)
花旗· 2025-06-23 02:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Century Huatong is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb10.0 based on an 18x 2025E PE, reflecting a 15% premium to the current A-share gaming average of 16x [16] - XD is rated "Hold" with a target price of HK$44, based on a 19x 26E EPS, set at a 20% premium to China's online gaming peers [18] Core Insights - The China Online Gaming Industry is expected to see increased topline visibility and quality earnings growth due to more game companies preparing to launch key titles in 2Q/3Q25, which may lead to re-rating opportunities [1] - Century Huatong is highlighted as a preferred investment choice due to its successful operations of Whiteout Survival and significant revenue size among A-share gaming peers [16] - XD is considered an attractive beta play in a risk-on environment, leveraging its self-development capabilities and unique gaming community platform [1][18] Company-Specific Summaries Century Huatong - Century Huatong's overseas grossing from Kingshot doubled month-over-month in May, generating over US$75 million, indicating strong growth potential [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of its titles, particularly Kingshot and Whiteout Survival, which are projected to contribute to greater topline upside in 2025E [2] 37 Interactive - 37 Interactive is set to launch Soul Land MMO on July 11, with pre-registration exceeding 8 million, indicating strong initial interest [3] Kingnet - Kingnet plans to launch Nobunaga's Ambition overseas on June 18, developed in collaboration with Tanda Games and Koei Tecmo [4] Perfect World - Perfect World is initiating the second beta for Neverness to Everness, with recruitment ongoing until June 17, suggesting potential for further game optimization and upgrades [5] XD - XD launched Etheria: Restart on June 5, achieving over 1 million downloads within two days and ranking in the top 3 for iOS downloads in several countries [6] - The title is expected to generate significant revenue, with estimates suggesting first-month grossing could reach Rmb100 million, with 50% from the US market [6] G-Bits - G-Bits launched Scepter & Sword on May 29, achieving a strong initial ranking in iOS downloads, although its long-term performance remains uncertain due to aging core game titles [8]