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摩根士丹利:中国游戏_释放潜力_新游戏发布推动市场估值
摩根· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Ratings - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on 37IE, an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating on G-bits, and an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating on Perfect World [1][3][4]. Core Insights - China's game industry has experienced high-teens percentage revenue growth year-to-date, surpassing the previous year's growth of 8%, indicating improved demand despite macroeconomic challenges [2]. - The report highlights successful new game releases and the stabilization of evergreen games as key factors driving the rebound in performance for 37IE, G-bits, and Perfect World [2][10]. Summary by Company 37IE - The price target is set at Rmb23.00, reflecting a 15x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, with an attractive 6% dividend yield [3][17]. - Anticipated revenue growth is supported by new titles such as "Soul Land," expected to generate Rmb300-500 million in its first month and Rmb1.5-2 billion overall in 2025 [16][17]. - The company has a robust pipeline with over 40 self-developed and licensed games, indicating sustained growth momentum [16][34]. Perfect World - The price target is raised to Rmb16.30, based on an 18x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, reflecting strong growth expectations driven by the anticipated title "Neverness to Everness" [4][29]. - The company is expected to see an 18% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025, with significant contributions from new titles [28][32]. - The release of "Zhuxian 2" on August 7 is also expected to be a key growth driver [4][31]. G-bits - The price target is increased to Rmb330, derived from a 15x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, reflecting a busy 2025 but a slower 2026 due to a weaker pipeline [5][22]. - Revenue growth is projected at 22% and 29% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in 2Q25, driven by new titles [20][22]. - The company is expected to experience alternating busy and slow product years, with 2025 being particularly strong [18][22].
花旗:中国互联网_158 款游戏获批_11 款进口游戏;腾讯、网易获得 21 个版号
花旗· 2025-06-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the gaming industry, estimating total game approvals in 2025 to reach between 1,500 and 1,700, with a significant increase in both domestic and imported titles [6][8]. Core Insights - The National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) approved a total of 158 games in June 2025, marking the largest monthly batch in the past three years. This includes 147 domestic and 11 imported titles [1][6]. - In the first half of 2025, 812 games were approved, which is 18% and 12% higher than the approvals in the first and second halves of 2024, respectively. This growth is attributed to larger batch sizes for domestic games and more frequent approvals for imported games [6][8]. - Tencent and NetEase are expanding their portfolios with new first-person shooter (FPS) titles, reflecting a rising preference among gamers for this genre [1][6]. Summary by Sections Game Approval Highlights - The June 2025 approval batch included 137 mobile, 8 cross-platform, and 2 PC games domestically, along with 4 mobile, 3 cross-platform, and 4 PC games imported [2][3]. - Notable titles in the imported batch include "CrossFire: Rainbow" and "Squad," both FPS games published by Tencent, and "Wildgate," an FPS by NetEase [3][4]. - The domestic batch featured significant titles such as "Zhu Lu Ma Fa," "Rumble Adventure," and "Soul Land," showcasing a variety of RPGs and mobile games [4][9]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that game companies will accelerate new game launches and updates during the summer season to enhance user engagement and monetization [6][8]. - The increasing approval rates and the variety of genres being introduced suggest a robust growth trajectory for the gaming industry in China [1][6].