Joining us uh right now with a look at crypto in the year ahead is uh Rob Hadock is the general partner Dragonfly cryptofocused investment firm. We've been talking about Bitcoin um and crypto all morning. Crypto's not had a great year at the moment.I don't know if you think we're in a crypto winter. I don't know where you think we go from here. >> Yeah.So, it hasn't had a great year, but I think it's important to zoom out, right. So if you look at the returns for Bitcoin relative to the day before the elect ...

Let's look at Bitcoin prices this morning. Oh my god, there might not be another interest rate cut. Uh, better sell some Bitcoin.Um, there it is. Um, right now down 598 at 87. We'll talk about where it's been uh with Anthony Pompiano, founder uh and CEO.I was looking at Coinbase. Got as high as 300 back in 21. Then it went all the way down to 30. Then it got all the way up Anthony and then we'll get to coin uh to Bitcoin all the way up to almost 400 again.Now it's almost been cut in half again. very volat d ...

Welcome back. I'm with Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Meyer and uh uh so I guess where you go after because your term is up in at the end of January, right. >> Yeah.So the term that I was confirmed for expires at the end of January. Uh what happens to me after that uh you know is is is anyone's guess. You know, it'll depend on it'll depend on a couple things.It depend on uh how many seats are available on the Federal Reserve Board and what the president decides to do. you know, if if there's an open ...

Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with the XLF gaining 13% this year and over 65% in the last three years [1] - Major banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs have reached new all-time highs in December [1] Outlook for 2026 - There is optimism that the strength in financials could continue into 2026, particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative rate policy [2][3] - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate mortgage activity, benefiting both large and regional banks [3][4] Impact of Interest Rates - Lower rates are anticipated to increase mortgage refinancing and purchasing activity, which in turn supports ancillary businesses related to home ownership [4][5] - The current environment may not encourage savings in money markets, but there remains a significant amount of capital in money markets that could rotate back into equities [6] Regional vs. Large Banks - Regional banks are more vulnerable to issues in commercial real estate, which is a significant concern due to the resetting of loans issued before 2020 at higher rates [7][8] - Large banks are better positioned to withstand potential challenges in 2026 compared to regional banks [9] Technological Adaptation - There is a call for banks to invest in decentralized finance technologies, such as blockchain and stable coins, to remain competitive in the future [10][11] - The shift towards decentralized finance is seen as a long-term trend that banks need to prepare for now [11]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has climbed back above $93,000, reaching its highest level in two weeks, although it has faced challenges since its all-time high in October, with regulatory factors being a key concern heading into the new year [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Clarity Act, which has passed the House, aims to establish a true market structure for crypto in the U.S., providing clarity and certainty for digital assets [3] - The Senate is expected to vote on the Clarity Act soon, which is essential for completing the regulatory framework for the crypto industry [2][3] - The passage of the Clarity Act would define which assets are subject to U.S. securities laws, addressing concerns regarding leverage and other issues [9] Group 2: Adoption of Stablecoins - Traditional financial institutions, including banks, are recognizing the potential of stablecoins to transform the financial services industry, leading to greater adoption and efficiency [5] - The recent passage of the Genius Act has prompted banks to explore stablecoins, indicating a shift towards innovation in financial transactions [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Leverage - The influence of leverage players on Bitcoin remains significant, and Coinbase is adapting to this evolving market by providing access to Bitcoin for millions [7][8] - The introduction of new options for consumers to participate in the Bitcoin market necessitates new standards and safeguards [8] Group 4: Institutional Engagement - Vanguard's decision to allow crypto ETFs on its platform signals a growing acceptance of crypto as an asset class, reflecting a shift in perspective among initial skeptics [10][11] Group 5: Transparency and Compliance - Coinbase's transparency report revealed a nearly 20% increase in government information requests, with over half coming from outside the U.S., indicating a global trend in law enforcement's interest in digital assets [12][14] - The report highlights the importance of lawful processes while maintaining customer privacy, as the demand for compliance with legal requests grows [15] Group 6: Metrics for Crypto Adoption - The focus on the use of digital assets and blockchain networks to solve real-world problems is becoming more prominent, beyond just price metrics [17][18] - The acceleration of adoption in various applications, such as DeFi for credit and alternative payment methods, is a key area of interest for the industry [18]

Core Insights - The outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 is bullish, driven by increased bank acceptance and credit development within the banking network [4][44] - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is considered obsolete, with structural market developments now being the primary drivers of Bitcoin's value [6][7][8] - Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is expected to continue growing, supported by regulatory changes and positive guidance from banking regulators [46][47] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Approximately half of large U.S. banks have begun extending credit against Bitcoin, with major banks like Charles Schwab and Citigroup planning to custody Bitcoin and extend credit in early 2026 [4][44] - The impact of Bitcoin's halving is diminishing, with daily trading volumes reaching up to $100 billion, making the halving's effect of $20 million negligible in comparison [7][8] - The embrace of Bitcoin by traditional finance is leading to significant demand, as evidenced by the increase in open interest in Bitcoin derivatives from $10 billion to $50 billion following regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Digital Asset Companies - The number of companies holding Bitcoin as digital capital has surged, with over 200 crypto treasury companies now in existence [11][12] - Strategy has evolved from merely holding Bitcoin to issuing digital credit, positioning itself as the largest issuer of digital credit globally [11][12] - The rise of digital credit is seen as a key development in the crypto economy, with potential yields significantly higher than traditional banking products [21][22] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The current U.S. administration is supportive of digital assets, which has led to a favorable environment for crypto IPOs and institutional adoption [24][25] - The introduction of fair value accounting has allowed companies to recognize gains from Bitcoin on their balance sheets, enhancing the appeal of holding Bitcoin [18][19] - The anticipated Clarity Act aims to provide clearer regulations for tokenization and digital finance, which is crucial for the industry's growth [41][42] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is expected to accelerate, with banks beginning to offer credit on digital assets, recognizing the $2 trillion of unbanked wealth in this sector [45][46] - The combination of supportive regulatory frameworks and institutional interest is likely to catalyze further investment in Bitcoin and digital assets [48][49] - The competitive landscape for digital finance is evolving, with a distinction between digital capital (Bitcoin) and digital finance (stablecoins and tokenized assets) [27][33]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is experiencing gains after significant losses, raising questions about potential recovery in the market [1] - The current situation in the crypto market is complex, with institutional investment and regulatory changes playing crucial roles [3][5] Institutional Investment - Institutional investment is a double-edged sword; while it has contributed to price increases, it has also intensified market crashes [4] - Notable institutions like Harvard, BlackRock, and Fidelity are increasing their investments in Bitcoin, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [4] Regulatory Changes - Recent regulatory changes in the U.S. are seen as positive for the crypto market, contrasting previous sentiments from SEC leadership [5] Market Trends - The current downturn in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may not signify a permanent shift but rather a temporary drawdown [6][7] - Ethereum's utility in stablecoin transactions and real-world asset tokenization presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for its future [7] Leverage in the Market - Excessive leverage in the crypto market is a significant concern, with recent liquidations contributing to current price volatility [9][10] - The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks suggests that Bitcoin is behaving more like a risky asset rather than a safe haven [13][14]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a rebound after a recent sell-off, with Bitcoin surpassing $87,000 and Ether rising to $2,863, indicating a positive trend for digital currencies [2][3] - Research indicates that stable coins now constitute 9% of the total crypto market cap, marking a two-year high, as investors seek protection from market volatility [3][4] Market Trends - There is a notable shift towards stable coins among crypto investors, driven by factors such as clearer regulations, increased institutional interest, and their growing use in cross-border payments and DeFi [3][4] - The stable coin market share has been rising over the past five months, reflecting a more cautious approach among investors in the crypto space [4] Regulatory Developments - The signing of the Genius Act stable coin bill into law in the US represents a significant regulatory advancement, enhancing investor confidence and attracting more capital into the sector [4] - NASDAQ is actively pursuing the introduction of tokenized securities, having filed an application with the SEC, which could allow for the trading of tokenized stocks on a major US exchange [8][9] NASDAQ's Initiatives - NASDAQ aims to bridge the digital asset world with traditional finance by allowing investors to choose between tokenized and traditional asset representations [11][12] - The exchange emphasizes maintaining investor rights and protections while integrating tokenized assets into existing market structures [15][19] Benefits of Tokenization - Tokenization is expected to improve efficiency, enhance audit trails, and potentially allow for 24/7 trading, with immediate benefits in post-trade processing and settlement [21][22] - The ability to use tokenized assets for collateral mobility is anticipated to enhance capital efficiency in the market [24][25] Product Offerings - NASDAQ has introduced various crypto-related products, including spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and is open to listing additional ETPs as long as they meet established criteria [27][28]

Group 1: Investment Preferences - The company favors certain investment banking plays, highlighting Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Barclays as attractive options due to their cost measures and valuation, with Barclays trading at approximately seven times earnings compared to Goldman Sachs at 15 times earnings [1] - Net West is noted for its strong performance as a pure retail bank in the UK, achieving an 18% return, indicating a healthy operating environment [1] - Southern European banks like Inasa are also included in the list of preferred stocks, suggesting a broader regional interest [1] Group 2: Concerns on Swedish Banks - The company expresses a lack of enthusiasm for Swedish banks, citing their high valuations and limited total yields, which contribute to constrained earnings growth [2] - There is a perception that the quality gap between Swedish banks and their European counterparts has significantly declined since the global financial crisis [3] Group 3: M&A Activity - The company anticipates limited M&A activity in European banks moving forward, despite some successful transactions this year, with Italy being a potential area for future M&A [3][4] - Acknowledgment of the high failure rate of past M&A transactions suggests skepticism about the viability of future deals in the sector [4] Group 4: Digital Banking and Cost Management - European banks are perceived to be lagging in digital banking advancements, raising concerns about their competitiveness against American banks over the long term [5][6] - The company notes that European banks are managing cost growth more effectively, with increases of 2-3%, compared to 5-10% in American banks, indicating a disciplined approach to cost management [5]

Market Overview - The markets are experiencing nervousness due to a government shutdown and doubts about AI valuations, leading to corrections in AI and growth stocks [1][2] - In the crypto market, a significant liquidation event occurred on October 10th, which was unprecedented in scale, contributing to downside pressure [2] Investment Opportunities - There are signs of market exhaustion, suggesting a potential bottom could be reached soon, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors [3][4] - Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for the broader market, and its recovery could signal a positive trend for other risk assets [4][14] - Ethereum is highlighted as a smart contract platform with significant growth potential, particularly in areas like stable coins and tokenization of various assets [6][11] Ethereum Insights - Ethereum's ecosystem is thriving, with increasing transaction volumes and value locked on the chain, indicating ongoing activity and growth [7] - The platform is expected to benefit from secular trends that are less affected by broader economic conditions, making it a compelling investment for long-term growth [10][11] Market Challenges - The crypto industry is facing headwinds from a recent liquidation event that has impacted liquidity and market stability [12] - There is ongoing speculation about Bitcoin's price cycle, with some investors believing it has peaked, which could affect overall market sentiment [13] Granny Shots ETF Performance - The Granny Shots ETF has performed well, gathering $3.6 billion in assets in its first year and outperforming the broader index by 1000 basis points [15][16] - The company plans to expand the Granny Shots lineup with new products focused on small and mid-cap stocks and an income-oriented version [18][19]