Time now for options corner. We are taking a look at Disney today which is set to report earnings on Monday. Joining us to take a deeper look at the chart is Rick Dukat, lead market technician.All right, Rick. Uh some say that Disney is going to have a good year this year, but take us through what you noticed in the chart. >> Yes, good morning Diane.And uh the streaming space certainly has been an interesting one lately uh with this whole deal between Warner Brothers and Netflix and Paramount Sky Dance here ...

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly critical of Netflix's performance, leading to a nearly 5% drop in stock price following earnings that only slightly exceeded analyst expectations [2][4] - Netflix's stock has declined nearly 40% from last summer's highs, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery [3][4] Financial Performance - Netflix reported fourth-quarter revenue of $12.05 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus of $11.97 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56, slightly above estimates [6] - For the current quarter, Netflix expects EPS of $0.76 on revenue of $12.16 billion, which is below the analyst expectations of EPS of $0.82 on revenue of $12.19 billion [5] Strategic Moves - The company plans to pause stock buybacks to accumulate cash for the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, which has been amended to an all-cash deal to counter a competing bid from Paramount Skydance [5][8] - Analysts suggest that Netflix's stock may remain under pressure until the Warner Bros. deal is finalized, with potential volatility expected until at least April [7]

Market Overview - Futures have reversed modest overnight gains, with S&P futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures down 0.3% as small caps outperform for a record 12th day in a row [1] - The market mood remains shaky, with a significant drop in liquidity as top of book collapsed 60% overnight [4] - Gold continues to hit new highs, approaching $4,900 per ounce, while bond yields are 1-2 basis points lower [1][8] Corporate News - Biohaven (BHVN) rises 3% after an upgrade to outperform by RBC due to supportive data [5] - Halliburton (HAL) climbs 2% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat analyst estimates [5] - Kraft Heinz (KHC) declines 5% as Berkshire Hathaway may sell some or all of its stake in the company [5] - Nathan's Famous (NATH) rises 8% after Smithfield Foods agreed to buy the company for $102 per share [5] - Netflix (NFLX) falls 7% after forecasting first-quarter earnings below analyst estimates and pausing share buybacks [5] Economic Indicators - The US economic calendar includes October construction spending and December pending home sales, with expectations of a 0.1% increase and a 0.25% decrease respectively [18][38] - Inflation in the UK rose to 3.4% in December, slightly above expectations, driven by higher tobacco prices and airfares [27] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum is anticipated to address various topics, including trade and tariffs, amid ongoing tensions regarding Greenland [6][30] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding Trump's ability to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, coinciding with a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell [11][25] Sector Performance - European stocks drifted lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6%, weighed down by financials and tech, while materials and luxury names outperformed [13][26] - The Russell 2000 is outperforming the Magnificent Seven by more than 10% year-to-date, indicating a rotation in market leadership [9]

Corporate Performance - Netflix (NFLX) stock fell over 5% in premarket trading after reporting quarterly earnings that, while beating estimates, indicated increased spending on content and a pause in its stock buyback program [10][12] - Kraft Heinz (KHC) stock dropped more than 6% after news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) may sell 325 million shares in the company, marking a significant move by Warren Buffett's successor, Greg Abel [7][8] - S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with about 81% surpassing fourth-quarter profit expectations, yet experiencing the worst share-price reactions on record, trailing the benchmark by an average of 1.1 percentage points [15][16] Market Trends - The bond market is reacting to geopolitical tensions, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 6 basis points to 4.29% and the 30-year yield increasing 8 basis points to 4.92% [14] - Chinese stocks rallied, with the Nasdaq-style STAR 50 Index jumping 3.5%, driven by optimism regarding Beijing's push for technology self-reliance [24][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix has increased its offer for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) to fend off a hostile takeover from Paramount, now offering cash instead of shares to enhance the deal's attractiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Offer Details - The total value of Netflix's offer remains at $82.7 billion (£61.4 billion), with shareholders set to receive $27.75 (£20.63) per WBD share, equating the offer to $72 billion (£53.50 billion) [2][4]. - The new cash offer simplifies the purchase process and provides greater certainty of value for WBD stockholders, with a potential vote on the proposal expected by April [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Paramount has made a hostile takeover bid for WBD, offering $30 (£22.30) cash per share, which has been rejected by the WBD board in favor of Netflix's offer [4]. - The merger of WBD with either Paramount or Netflix would represent one of the largest media deals in history, significantly impacting the television and film industries [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - Netflix's ownership of WBD's film production companies could lead to shorter theatrical runs for films, reflecting Netflix's skepticism about the future of cinema [6]. - If Paramount's takeover is successful, it would result in a concentration of news services, raising concerns about media ownership linked to political figures [7].

Group 1 - Netflix is revising its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction [1] - The initial deal was a cash and stock offer valued at $27.75 per Warner Bros. share, totaling an enterprise value of $82.7 billion, including debt [1] - The revised deal simplifies the transaction structure and provides more certainty of value for Warner Bros. stockholders [1] Group 2 - The all-cash transaction remains valued at $27.75 per Warner Bros. share [2] - Warner Bros. stockholders will receive additional value from shares of Discovery Global following its separation from Warner Bros. [2] - Both companies' boards have approved the amended all-cash deal [2]

Group 1 - The company's shares increased following reports of its intention to make an all-cash offer for Warner Bros. streaming and studio assets [1]

Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - Global mergers and acquisitions activity rebounded strongly in 2025, driven by easing monetary policy in the US, rising demand for AI capabilities, and improving macroeconomic stability [1] - US M&A volume approached $2.3 trillion in 2025, representing a 49% increase from the prior year, while global deal value rose more than 25% [3] Group 2: Key Transactions - Netflix agreed to acquire Warner Bros Discovery's studios and streaming business for $72 billion in equity value, following a competitive bidding process [4] - Anglo American and Teck Resources announced a merger of equals valued at approximately $53 billion, forming a copper-focused mining company [6] - Alphabet's Google announced an agreement to acquire cloud security firm Wiz for $32 billion, marking its largest acquisition to date [8] - Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern proposed an $85 billion merger to create the first transcontinental railroad network in the US [10] - Sycamore Partners completed its acquisition of Walgreens Boots Alliance in a transaction valued at up to $23.7 billion [12] - Sintana Energy agreed to acquire Challenger Energy Group in an all-share transaction valued at approximately C$83.6 million [14] - Lumine Group entered into an agreement to acquire Synchronoss Technologies in an all-cash transaction valued at $116.4 million [16] - Volato Group and M2i Global agreed to a business combination structured as a reverse merger [18] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The Netflix acquisition is expected to significantly expand its content production and distribution footprint [5] - The Anglo American and Teck merger is projected to yield annual pre-tax recurring synergies of about $800 million by the fourth year [7] - The Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger is expected to generate annual synergies of $2.75 billion [11] - The acquisition of Wiz is aimed at strengthening Google Cloud's cybersecurity offerings amid intensifying competition [9]

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery has received an unsolicited tender offer from Paramount Skydance to acquire all outstanding shares, with the board considering the offer alongside its current arrangement with Netflix [1]. Group 1: Offer Details - Paramount's offer is $30 per share in cash for the entire firm, presenting a straightforward exit option for shareholders [5]. - Netflix's proposal involves a more complex structure, splitting Warner Bros. Discovery's old networks into a new entity, potentially called "Discovery Global," and focusing on studios and streaming [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Paramount's cash offer aims to provide immediate satisfaction to investors, reducing uncertainty in a volatile market [7]. - The simplicity of Paramount's bid contrasts with Netflix's multifaceted approach, which includes cash, stock, and a spinoff stake, leading to a more complicated decision for shareholders [8]. Group 3: Market Perception - The perception of a cash bid as superior may be misleading if the market doubts its likelihood of closing, as indicated by the board's hesitance to act [9]. - Netflix's structured payment plan includes elements that may not be fully appreciated by investors, suggesting a hidden value in its offer [10].

分组1 - Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) shares increased by 3.5% following Paramount Skyance's enhanced bid, with a cash offer of $30 per share remaining unchanged and Larry Ellison guaranteeing over $40 billion in equity financing [1][2] - Paramount shares rose over 4% after Warner advised shareholders to reject the hostile bid, raising concerns about the Ellison family's commitment to funding the deal [2] - Netflix's shares fell more than 1% despite refinancing part of its $59 billion bridge loan to support its bid for Warner's film studio and streaming businesses, which were valued at nearly $83 billion [2][10] 分组2 - Larry Ellison's involvement in the deal suggests a strong financial backing, potentially positioning Paramount favorably in the competition for Warner Brothers [3][6] - The importance of content in the evolving media landscape, particularly in relation to AI, is highlighted, indicating that the ability to produce quality content will be crucial for future competitiveness [4][8] - The regulatory challenges surrounding the deal are significant, with Paramount facing more pressure to secure the acquisition compared to Netflix, which is expected to manage its content production effectively regardless of the outcome [13]