机构：海通国际 研究员：胡佳璐/李一腾/刘坤钰 风险提示：经济下滑，行业竞争加剧，门店拓展不及预期，原材料价格上涨。 事件：泡泡玛特于7 月15 日发布1H 业绩预告。预计收入同比增长不低于200%（对应收入不低于136.7 亿元），净利润（除去金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长不低于350%（对应净利润不低于43.4 亿元），业绩超预期。 ①LABUBU 补货预售火爆，全年收入增长可期：4 月24 日发售的THE MONSTERS 前方高能系列 （LABUBU 3.0）销售火爆，首批存货售罄后，公司于6 月18 日以预售方式重新上架系列产品，小程序 发货日期目前已排至9 月26 日，预计将对全年业绩贡献显著。此外，虽二手市场价格有一定程度下降， 但仍溢价明显，表明市场需求仍未被充分满足。②新IP 不断崛起，公司IP 孵化与运营能力持续验证： 除已经成为公司目前第一大IP 的THE MONSTERS 外，CRYBABY 和星星人今年也有明显增长，IP 势 能提升，有持续爆款潜力。其中CRYBABY 凭借在泰国市场的火爆有望提升至公司IP 销售贡献的第三 名（仅次于THE MONSTERS 和MOLLY）。③ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, and net profit expected to increase by no less than 350% [12] - The growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's IP, diversified product categories driving revenue growth across regions, and improved cost management enhancing profitability [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.1 billion, RMB 53.5 billion, and RMB 69.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 169%, 53%, and 29% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 23.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 229%, 58%, and 34% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 74.9% by 2027 [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with new IPs like CRYBABY gaining traction, indicating a reduced reliance on a few key IPs [4] - The overseas business is growing rapidly, particularly in the U.S., where price increases are expected to enhance regional gross margins [4] - The launch of new product lines, including the independent accessory brand POPOP, aims to broaden the customer base and explore IP value [3]