Astera Labs (ALAB) 2025 Conference September 04, 2025 08:50 AM ET Company ParticipantsJitendra Mohan - Co-Founder, CEO & DirectorNick Aberle - VP - Treasurer & IRConference Call ParticipantsPapa Talla Sylla - AVP & Equity Research AnalystNone - AnalystPapa Talla SyllaDay two of Citi Tech Conference. My name is Papa Silla. I'm part of the Semian hardware team at Citi, and I'm very pleased to welcome, Jitandra and Nick from Astera Lab. I think this is your very first Citi Tech conference, so hopefully, this h ...

Core Insights - Astera Labs (ALAB) is experiencing significant growth driven by strong demand for its Aries, Taurus, and Scorpio product families, with Q2 2025 revenues increasing by 149.7% year over year and 20% sequentially [1][10] - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenues to be between $203 million and $210 million, indicating a sequential growth of 6% to 9% [4][10] Product Performance - The Aries product family is diversifying across GPU and custom ASIC-based systems, with the Aries 6 solution supporting PCIe 6 beginning volume ramp in Q2 2025 [2] - Scorpio product line has exceeded 10% of total revenues in Q2 2025, marking it as the fastest ramping product line in Astera Labs' history, with strong demand for Scorpio P-Series and X-Series PCIe Fabric Switches [3][10] Competitive Landscape - Astera Labs faces competition from Broadcom and Marvell Technology in the connectivity and high-speed interconnect domain [5] - Broadcom offers a wide range of high-performance PCIe Switches with low latency and power consumption, while Marvell benefits from demand for electro-optics products and next-generation switches [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Astera Labs shares have appreciated 31.5% year to date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 12.5% [8] - The stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 31.97X compared to the sector's 6.66X, indicating a Value Score of F [13]

Core Insights - Astera Labs (ALAB) shares have surged 112.6% in the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 5.1% increase [1][9] - The strong performance is attributed to robust second-quarter 2025 results, with net revenues rising 149.7% year over year to $192 million, exceeding estimates by 11.1% [2][3] - The company anticipates third-quarter 2025 revenues between $203 million and $210 million, indicating a sequential growth of 6% to 9% [7] Financial Performance - ALAB's second-quarter 2025 results were driven by high demand for its signal conditioning portfolio, particularly in PCIe and Ethernet applications [3][10] - The Scorpio product line has become a significant contributor, exceeding 10% of total revenues and marking the fastest ramping product line in the company's history [3][9] - Non-GAAP earnings for the third quarter are expected to be between 38 cents and 39 cents per share, reflecting a 52.2% increase year over year [17] Market Position and Growth Prospects - Astera Labs is positioned as a key player in next-generation data center connectivity, with a comprehensive portfolio that includes PCIe 6.0 and Ultra Accelerator Link [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the AI Infrastructure 2.0 transition, with a projected market opportunity of nearly $5 billion by 2030 [8] - ALAB's partnerships with major companies like NVIDIA and AMD enhance its growth prospects in the AI and cloud infrastructure sectors [14][16] Valuation and Investment Outlook - ALAB shares are currently trading at a premium, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 35.56X, significantly higher than the sector average of 6.73X [19][20] - Despite the premium valuation, the innovative product portfolio and strong partner base suggest a favorable investment opportunity, supported by a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Growth Score of A [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Astera Labs reported quarterly revenue of $191.9 million, representing a 20% increase from the previous quarter and a 150% increase compared to Q2 of the previous year [6][20]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 76%, up 110 basis points from the previous quarter [22]. - Non-GAAP operating margin for Q2 was 39.2%, an increase of 550 basis points from the previous quarter [22]. - Cash flow from operating activities for Q2 was $135.4 million, with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $1.07 billion at the end of the quarter [23]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Scorpio product line, particularly the Scorpio PCD switches, exceeded 10% of total revenue, marking it as the fastest ramping product line in the company's history [6][7]. - The Taurus product family showed strong growth driven by AEC demand, supporting the latest merchant GPUs and general-purpose compute platforms [9]. - The ADX product family continued to diversify across GPU and custom ASIC-based systems, contributing to overall revenue growth [8]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Astera Labs is engaged with over 10 unique AI platform and cloud infrastructure providers for their scale-up networking requirements [16]. - The company anticipates that the transition to AI infrastructure 2.0 will create a market opportunity of nearly $5 billion by 2030 [12]. - The company is strategically positioned to support the AI infrastructure transformation, which is still in its early stages [12]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - Astera Labs aims to deliver a comprehensive connectivity platform that includes silicon, hardware, and software solutions for rack-scale AI deployments [13]. - The company is focused on increasing its addressable dollar content in AI servers by expanding its product lines [14]. - Astera Labs is committed to developing and commercializing a broad portfolio of UA Link connectivity solutions, which is expected to be a long-term growth vector [18]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong momentum of the business and the prospects for continued diversification and scale [12]. - The transition to AI infrastructure 2.0 is seen as a significant opportunity for revenue growth, with expectations for Scorpio X Series revenue to outgrow Scorpio P Series revenue [16][17]. - The company is optimistic about the adoption of UA Link, with multiple hyperscalers showing strong interest [38]. Other Important Information - Non-GAAP operating expenses for Q2 were $17.7 million, up approximately $5 million from the previous quarter, reflecting continued investment in R&D [22]. - The company expects Q3 revenues to range between $200 million and $210 million, representing a 6% to 9% increase from Q2 [24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What has been the biggest differentiator for the Scorpio family of switching products? - Management highlighted three key factors: closeness to customers, execution track record, and the use of the Cosmos software suite to optimize product performance [29][30]. Question: What is the reception and interest level on UA Link? - Management noted tremendous interest in UA Link due to its technical advantages and the open ecosystem it supports, with over 10 customers looking to leverage these open standards [36][38]. Question: Can you discuss the profile of the types of customers using Scorpio? - Management indicated a broad base of customers leveraging Scorpio P Series for scale-out connectivity and Scorpio X Series for scale-up networking, with significant interest in surrounding products [44][45]. Question: What is the expected tax rate for the upcoming quarters? - The tax rate for Q3 is expected to be around 20% due to recent tax law changes, with a normalization to approximately 15% in Q4 and a long-term expectation of around 13% [48]. Question: How does the latency of Broadcom's Tomahawk Ultra switch compare to Astera's products? - Management stated that Astera's products achieve lower latencies than Broadcom's offerings, emphasizing the importance of end-to-end latency in AI applications [106].

Core Insights - Astera Labs (ALAB) is expected to report Q2 2025 results on August 5, with projected revenues between $170 million and $175 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7% to 10% [1][9] - Earnings per share are anticipated to be between 32 cents and 33 cents, reflecting a significant growth of 153.85% compared to the previous year [2][20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues stands at $172.7 million, representing a 124.7% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - ALAB's revenue growth is driven by strong demand for Scorpio P-Series switches and Aries 6 retimers, particularly in AI applications [4][5] - The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 28.41% [3] Product Demand and Market Position - Astera Labs is experiencing robust demand for its Aries and Taurus product families, which are expected to grow sequentially in Q2 2025 [5][9] - The company is diversifying its offerings across GPU and custom ASIC-based systems, which is a key growth catalyst [5] Competitive Landscape - ALAB faces challenges from tariff uncertainties and competition from companies like Broadcom and Credo Technology [6][19] - The company is investing heavily in R&D, with expenses rising 20% year-over-year to $64.6 million in Q1 2025 [6] Stock Performance - Astera Labs shares have underperformed, dropping 1% year-to-date, compared to a 9.1% return for the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector [7][20] - The stock is currently trading at a high valuation, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 26.26X, significantly above the industry average of 5.65X [14] Strategic Developments - Astera Labs is advancing its product portfolio with next-gen data center connectivity solutions, including PCIe 6.0 and UA Link technologies [16][17] - The company has established partnerships with key players like NVIDIA, enhancing its market position in AI and cloud infrastructure [18] Conclusion - Despite a strong product portfolio and partner base, Astera Labs faces rising competition and valuation concerns ahead of its Q2 2025 results [20]

Group 1 - Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) shares increased by 19.3% to $121.89 in the last trading session, with a higher-than-average trading volume, compared to a 9.7% gain over the past four weeks [1] - The company is experiencing strong demand for its Aries and Taurus product families, and expects accelerated shipments of Scorpio P-Series switches and Aries 6 retimers, which are based on market-leading GPUs, to enhance top-line growth [2] - Astera Labs is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 153.9%, with revenues expected to reach $172.71 million, up 124.7% from the same quarter last year [2] Group 2 - The consensus EPS estimate for Astera Labs has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] - Astera Labs holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), while another company in the same industry, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD), has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and saw its shares decrease by 11.8% to $33.61 in the last trading session [4][5]

Core Insights - Astera Labs (ALAB) is emerging as a key player in AI and cloud connectivity, with a remarkable 144% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its product families [1][9] - The company is strategically expanding its market presence through partnerships, notably with Alchip Technologies, to enhance AI infrastructure adoption [2][6] Business Performance - ALAB reported a significant revenue increase of 144% year-over-year in Q1 2025, attributed to robust demand across its product lines [1][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALAB's 2025 earnings indicates a 60.7% improvement year-over-year [12] Strategic Collaborations - The partnership with Alchip Technologies aims to integrate advanced connectivity and ASIC design capabilities, enhancing ALAB's position in the AI value chain [2][6] - Collaborations with ecosystem leaders like Wistron and NVIDIA further strengthen ALAB's competitive edge in the AI and cloud infrastructure market [7] Market Position and Valuation - ALAB's shares have rallied over 30% in the past three months, outperforming both the Internet-Software industry and the S&P 500 [3] - Currently, ALAB trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 18.63X, which is below its 1-year median of 19.90X but remains overvalued compared to the industry [13]

Core Viewpoint - Astera Labs (ALAB) is expected to report strong first-quarter 2025 results, with significant revenue and earnings growth driven by demand in AI and data center infrastructure [1][2][3]. Revenue Expectations - For Q1 2025, ALAB anticipates revenues between $151 million and $155 million, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $153.34 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 134.97% [1]. - The company expects non-GAAP earnings between 28 cents and 29 cents per share, with a consensus mark of 28 cents, indicating a year-over-year increase of 180% [2]. Factors Influencing Performance - The anticipated revenue growth is attributed to increasing demand for AI servers and data center infrastructure, particularly from its key product families: Aries, Taurus, and Leo [3]. - Significant revenue contributions are expected from the Aries PCIe retimers and Taurus Ethernet product lines, driven by their adoption in AI platforms and general-purpose compute systems [4]. Product Contributions - Revenues from Taurus 400 gig Ethernet solutions are projected to significantly impact the top line, supported by applications in AI and general-purpose compute infrastructure [5]. - The expansion of the Scorpio Smart Fabric Switch family is also expected to positively contribute to Q1 results [5]. Stock Performance - ALAB shares have declined 45.1% year-to-date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector's decrease of 8.9% and the Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry's decline of 15.2% [6]. - This underperformance is linked to concerns over lower-than-expected gross margins due to a shift in product mix and broader market weaknesses in the tech sector [7]. Valuation Insights - ALAB stock is considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 15.36X, significantly higher than the sector average of 5.71X [10]. Competitive Landscape - ALAB's expanding portfolio, including the ramp-up of its PCIe6 connectivity solutions, is seen as a key growth driver, helping to fend off competition from major players like Broadcom [12][13]. - Collaborations with top chipmakers such as NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, and Intel are expected to enhance ALAB's growth in the AI sector [15][17]. Conclusion - Despite a strong product portfolio, ALAB faces increasing competition in the AI and cloud markets, which may impact financial performance [18][20].