December 15, 2025 10:52 PM GMT The automotive industry is at an AI-driven inflection point, and TSLA continues to expand its lead. Footage from Austin confirms Tesla is one step closer to scaling its vision-only robotaxi without a safety monitor, supporting our bullish view on Tesla Mobility ($125/share on 1mn units by 2035). Key Takeaways Over the weekend, Elon Musk confirmed videos on X, showing Tesla's robotaxi vehicles operating in Austin without a safety monitor, or any passengers in the vehicle. This ...

EV maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is among the most interesting growth stocks in the market to look at. It's kind of a love-it or hate-it company, with bulls and bears seemingly entrenched in their views on the Elon Musk-led firm. I typically take a more bearish stance on Tesla, and my view is generally pessimistic around this company and its current valuation relative to where market participants think revenue and earnings will go over time. That said, I thought it would be interesting to take the other side of ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's prediction of "millions" of Tesla robotaxis on American streets by 2026 is viewed with skepticism, as significant challenges remain in achieving this goal [1]. Company Analysis - Tesla's current market capitalization stands at $1,429 billion, with a current stock price of $430.05, reflecting a daily change of -3.56% [2]. - The company has a gross margin of 17.01% and does not offer a dividend yield [2]. Industry Comparison - Waymo, operated by Alphabet, has been in the autonomous taxi service since 2009 and has a decade of experience in ride-sharing, which gives it a competitive edge over Tesla [2][4]. - Waymo currently operates approximately 1,500 self-driving vehicles and plans to add around 2,000 more by the end of 2025, indicating a gradual scaling process [3][4]. - The gap between Waymo's current fleet and Musk's ambitious target for Tesla highlights the challenges Tesla may face in meeting its robotaxi goals [3][4].

Core Insights - Tesla's robotaxi ambitions are generating excitement despite some disappointments in earnings [1] - The market is increasingly viewing Tesla as a tech company rather than a traditional automaker [2][7] Valuation and Market Position - Tesla's price-to-sales ratio is significantly higher than that of other automakers, trading above 16 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation typically associated with tech firms [3][7] - Despite a projected decline in sales this fiscal year, Tesla continues to maintain a high market cap of $1.518 trillion [5][6] Sales and Market Dynamics - Tesla is experiencing sales declines of up to 40% in certain regions, even as overall EV sales rise [5] - The loss of federal subsidies has impacted the EV industry, which previously contributed billions in profits to Tesla [5] Robotaxi Development - Elon Musk has made ambitious predictions regarding the rollout of Tesla's robotaxi service, aiming for "millions" of robotaxis by the end of 2026 [11] - The company plans to expand its robotaxi service to eight to ten cities by the end of the year [11] Competitive Advantage - Tesla's control over its production processes and significant investments in AI position it favorably in the robotaxi market [12][13] - Analysts believe that Tesla's vertically integrated business model and access to capital could enable it to capitalize on a potential $10 trillion global opportunity in autonomous vehicles [15]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility in 2025, currently up 95% in six months, translating to a year-to-date increase of approximately 10% [1] Group 1: Earnings and Investor Focus - Earnings day for Tesla is critical, with investors eager to see if the recent stock rally can be sustained [1] - Investors are particularly interested in updates regarding Tesla's robotaxi rollout, which is viewed as a key factor justifying the company's high valuation [1] Group 2: Vehicle Sales Outlook - There are expectations for questions regarding the future of vehicle sales, especially after Tesla's recent delivery figures exceeded estimates [2] - The removal of the federal EV tax credit raises concerns about potential declines in sales in upcoming quarters [2] - Tesla is set to release its earnings results shortly after the market closes, with an analyst call scheduled for later in the evening [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's shares experienced a significant increase of 33.2% in September, driven by a series of positive developments rather than a single event [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - CEO Elon Musk's purchase of approximately $1 billion worth of Tesla stock on September 12 bolstered investor confidence in the company's future [2] - Musk's leadership and the potential of Tesla's undeveloped technology contribute to the importance of his actions and statements [3] - The market reacted positively to Musk's substantial stock purchase, indicating strong investor sentiment [7] Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Dynamics - The expiration of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles on September 30 led to a pull-forward in EV purchases, with uncertainty regarding the extent of this effect [4] - Tesla reported 481,166 deliveries of its Model 3 and Model Y in the third quarter, representing a 9.4% increase from the previous year [5] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Investors are increasingly valuing Tesla's potential in the robotaxi business, with approvals for testing autonomous vehicles granted in Arizona and Nevada [6] - Anticipation of a decline in fourth-quarter sales due to the pull-forward effect exists, but the introduction of a lower-cost model could stimulate delivery growth [8] - Momentum in the robotaxi rollout may enhance investor interest, especially if a fully autonomous service is approved [8]

Core Insights - The robotaxi industry is rapidly evolving, with major tech and automotive companies pushing into autonomous vehicles and robotaxis, marking a shift from a distant dream to reality in the U.S. [1] Company Summaries Amazon's Zoox - Amazon's Zoox has begun offering free rides in Las Vegas, with plans to expand service across the city and eventually charge passengers once regulatory approval is obtained [3][5] - Zoox's unique vehicle design, built from the ground up without a steering wheel, features a cabin where passengers sit face-to-face, earning it the nickname "toaster on wheels" [4] - Future expansion plans include services in San Francisco, Austin, and Miami, with testing already underway in Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Seattle [5] Tesla - Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, TX, in June, initially limited to a small group of riders but quickly expanding its fleet and routes [6] - The service currently requires human supervisors, known as "Safety Monitors," to be present in the vehicles, reflecting a cautious rollout strategy [7] - CEO Elon Musk aims for Tesla's robotaxi to reach half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, with ambitious targets tied to his compensation package [8] Alphabet's Waymo - Waymo is the most established player in the robotaxi market, operating fully driverless Level 4 services in multiple cities, including Phoenix and San Francisco [9] - The company has completed over 10 million paid rides and delivers around 250,000 weekly paid rides, showcasing its significant scale compared to competitors [10] - Waymo's partnerships with companies like Hyundai and Uber enhance its deployment flexibility, supported by Alphabet's resources [11] Industry Outlook - The competition among Amazon, Tesla, and Alphabet illustrates the rapid evolution of the robotaxi industry, with each company pursuing different strategies [12] - Regulatory challenges and safety concerns remain, but the momentum towards a robotaxi revolution is increasing [12]

Core Insights - The autonomous ride-hailing market is intensifying, with Amazon's Zoox launching free rides in Las Vegas, while Lyft expands its autonomous offerings in Atlanta [1][4][2] Group 1: Amazon and Zoox - Amazon's Zoox is now providing free rides along the Las Vegas Strip, with plans to expand citywide and charge for rides after obtaining regulatory approval [2] - Zoox was acquired by Amazon in 2020 for $1.2 billion and has been testing its technology in Las Vegas and San Francisco [2] - Zoox's vehicles are custom-designed without steering wheels, allowing riders to face each other, differing from traditional autonomous vehicles [3] Group 2: Competitors and Market Dynamics - Waymo, backed by Alphabet, leads the autonomous taxi market, having surpassed 10 million paid rides and planning expansions into new cities [3] - Lyft has launched a pilot program for autonomous rides in Atlanta in partnership with May Mobility, aiming to compete with Uber's offerings [4][5] - Uber has partnered with Waymo for autonomous rides in multiple cities and is investing hundreds of millions in startups to develop its own robotaxi service [6] Group 3: Stock Performance - Uber's stock decreased by 1.4% to $94.14, while Lyft's stock increased by 2.3% to $18.82, with Lyft's shares up 47% year-to-date and Uber's up 56% [7] - Amazon's stock fell over 3% to $230.84 amid concerns about competition from Oracle in the cloud space [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's timeline for launching an affordable electric vehicle (EV) continues to slip, with production now expected to start in late 2025, despite earlier promises for the first half of 2025 [1][9][14]. Group 1: Production Timeline and Challenges - Tesla initially announced plans to produce a $25,000 EV in 2020, but concrete details have been lacking since then [3]. - In January 2022, CEO Elon Musk stated that the affordable EV project was deprioritized due to other ongoing projects [4]. - Following a drop in stock price due to reports of the project being canceled, Tesla indicated it would accelerate plans for affordable models, aiming for production in late 2024 or early 2025 [12][15]. Group 2: Market Competition and Demand - Tesla faces increasing pressure from cheaper competitors, particularly in China, such as BYD, and from Western manufacturers expanding their EV offerings [2]. - The need for a more affordable model is underscored by a general slowdown in EV adoption, making it crucial for Tesla to remain competitive [2][3]. Group 3: Internal Communications and Investor Sentiment - Reports from Reuters suggested that internal communications indicated the affordable EV project was scrapped, which Musk denied, asserting that a great product at a great price would lead to excellent sales [10][11]. - Despite Musk's optimistic timelines, there is skepticism among investors regarding the feasibility of the proposed production schedules for affordable models [9][14].

Core Insights - Tesla has launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, using a limited fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles instead of the previously introduced Cybercab [1][2] - The service is currently operating in a geofenced area with safety measures in place, including remote monitoring and a Tesla employee present in the vehicle [2] - Following the launch, Tesla's stock rose by 8% on Monday, adding approximately $10 billion to Elon Musk's stake, although some gains were lost the following day [3] Competition Landscape - Tesla's initial vision of having 1 million robotaxis by 2020 has not materialized, and it may be late to the robotaxi market by 2025 [5] - Competitors like Waymo are already operating in multiple cities and have provided 250,000 paid rides per week, indicating the need for Tesla to significantly scale its network to compete [6] - Other companies, including Amazon's Zoox and Volkswagen, are also developing their own robotaxi networks, while several networks are advancing in China [7] Financial Performance and Valuation - Tesla's competitive edge in electric vehicles and autonomy is diminishing, with automotive revenue falling by 20% in Q1 2024 and a decline in vehicle sales in Europe [8] - The company's valuation is heavily reliant on the success of the robotaxi business, with speculative projections suggesting a $5 trillion valuation by 2030, but these are largely conjectural [9] - Currently, Tesla's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 196, indicating that investors are expecting significant growth from robotaxis and other ventures [10] Risks and Challenges - The slow rollout of the robotaxi network may pose more risks than opportunities for Tesla, as the stock is priced for perfection and any missteps could lead to significant declines [11]