Core Viewpoint - Tesla has avoided a 30-day suspension of its dealer and manufacturer licenses in California by ceasing the use of the term "autopilot" in its vehicle marketing [1] Group 1 - Tesla's decision to stop using the term "autopilot" is a strategic move to comply with regulatory requirements in California [1] - The avoidance of the suspension indicates Tesla's proactive approach to regulatory compliance and its impact on business operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perception of Tesla as an automaker, emphasizing that the company operates beyond traditional automotive boundaries and is involved in various sectors [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tesla is not solely an automaker but is involved in multiple sectors, indicating a broader business model [1]. - The company is recognized for its growth potential, focusing on fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy highlighted includes a focus on growth, utilizing price-volume confirmation and macroeconomic filters to identify opportunities [1]. - The analysis incorporates econometric tools to assess market direction, cycles, and behavior, which is crucial for making informed investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's fourth-quarter delivery results fell short of expectations, leading to a reduced rating from HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall with a price target of $131.00 [1] Delivery Performance - Tesla delivered 418,000 vehicles in Q4, which was 3.7% below Visible Alpha consensus and 5.2% below internal projections, marking a 16% decrease year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter [2] - The shortfall in deliveries is attributed to the end of EV credits in the US and weak demand in Europe and China [2][3] Market Dynamics - The end of EV credits in the US has impacted sales, with affordable Standard models not compensating for the decline [3] - High-frequency data indicates weak volumes in both Europe and China, suggesting broader market challenges [3] - The global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market is becoming more regionalized, with US adoption stalling and increasing competition in Europe and China [4] Energy Storage Business - Tesla's energy storage business showed resilience, deploying 14.2 GWh, which exceeded Visible Alpha consensus by 4.7% and the firm's estimate by 7.5% [3] Competitive Landscape - There is skepticism about Tesla's growth drivers due to intensifying competitive pressures and market regionalization, with rising competition likely causing Tesla to lose market share in Europe [4]

Core Insights - Tesla Inc reported record overall deliveries in Q3 but faced lower figures in the subsequent months of Q4, indicating potential volatility in demand [1] - December saw a significant increase in Tesla's wholesale vehicle deliveries in China, with a total of 97,171 units, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 12.1% rise from November [2][3] - Despite the strong December performance, total wholesale sales for the year were down 7.1%, totaling 851,732 units, suggesting challenges in maintaining growth [4] Sales Performance - The December wholesale figure included both retail and export units, with November's split being 73,145 retail units and 13,555 export units [3] - Tesla's domestic sales in China reached 531,855 units through December, falling short of the 2024 target of 657,105 units, marking the first sales decline in the Chinese market in the company's history [5] Market Dynamics - The increase in December deliveries could indicate a rebound in demand in China, but it also comes amid heightened competition and changing market conditions [4][6] - The year 2025 is characterized by fluctuations in demand, influenced by competition and public perception of CEO Elon Musk, despite record deliveries in Q3 driven by the expiration of the federal EV tax credit [6] Future Outlook - While vehicle deliveries may become less impactful on Tesla's financials as investors shift focus to growth initiatives like robotaxis and robotics, they remain crucial for the company's overall financial health [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025, leading to cautious sentiment on Wall Street regarding the stock's future performance [1][3]. Delivery and Production Performance - Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, below Wall Street's expectation of approximately 426,000 [1]. - Quarterly deliveries declined by roughly 16% year-over-year from 495,570 vehicles, while production fell 5.5% from 459,445 units in Q4 2024 [2]. - For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, down from 1.79 million in 2024, representing an 8.6% annual decline [2]. Market Reaction - Following the delivery report, Tesla shares closed 2.59% lower, ending the session at $438, although the stock remains up over 6% year-over-year [1][3]. - Wall Street analysts have turned more cautious, with a mean price target of $393.90, indicating a downside of just over 10% [6]. Analyst Ratings and Insights - Morgan Stanley maintained an 'Equalweight' rating with a $425 price target, noting that while deliveries missed broader expectations, they exceeded buy-side estimates [7]. - Truist Securities kept a 'Hold' rating and adjusted the price target to $439 from $444, citing weaker deliveries and limited updates on automotive initiatives [8]. - Wedbush reiterated an 'Outperform' rating with a $600 price target, arguing that fourth-quarter deliveries were better than feared and highlighting energy storage as a key driver of upside [9].

Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Michael Burry has denied shorting Tesla's shares despite labeling the company as "ridiculously overvalued" [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Insights - Burry clarified his position on Tesla after previously expressing concerns about its stock valuation in a paid Substack newsletter [2]. - He has recently made headlines for a tech short bet, indicating that major U.S. companies may be using aggressive accounting practices to inflate profits related to the AI boom [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Burry's comments on Tesla coincided with the company's unusual decision to publish sales estimates, which suggest a lower-than-expected outlook for vehicle deliveries [3].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, with a consensus estimate of 422,850 vehicles, down from approximately 496,000 in the same quarter of 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Deliveries - The anticipated deliveries for Tesla in the fourth quarter are 422,850 vehicles [1] - This figure represents a decrease from about 496,000 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1]

Group 1 - Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, stated he is not shorting Tesla shares despite labeling the company as "ridiculously overvalued" [1] - Tesla's recent sales estimates indicate a potential decline in vehicle deliveries, with an average estimate of 1.6 million deliveries, representing a decrease of over 8% from the previous year [2] - The company is projected to experience its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with future estimates for the next three years also lower than Bloomberg's averages [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc. shares have experienced a notable decline, closing lower for four consecutive sessions after reaching an all-time high, with a decrease of nearly 8% since the peak just before Christmas [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The recent pullback in Tesla's stock is particularly striking given the overall market is near record highs, raising questions about whether this is a healthy pause or a sign of waning momentum [3]. - Despite the recent decline, Tesla's stock has increased over 100% since April, and the long-term uptrend remains intact, with no major trend structures broken [3][4]. - A pullback of this magnitude is not unusual and aligns with previous patterns seen throughout the year, as profit-taking often follows significant milestones [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The stock could potentially fall another 8% and still remain within a rising trend channel that has supported its movement since spring, suggesting the recent selloff may be more about digestion than a breakdown [4]. - Tradesmith's Health Indicator, which measures stock price health based on volatility, indicates that TSLA stock has been in the green zone for four consecutive months, supporting the notion of a healthy trend [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The occurrence of four consecutive lower closes suggests that there may be more at play than just short-term profit-taking, indicating sustained selling pressure and a shift in market sentiment [5][6]. - The bears appear to have gained control over the stock, indicating a potential shift in the balance of power between buyers and sellers [7].

For the first time, Tesla has taken the unusual step of previewing its own delivery expectations ahead of its fourth-quarter results, a move that has raised eyebrows across Wall Street. In a post on its investor relations website, Tesla published what it called a “company-compiled delivery consensus,” putting global Q4 deliveries at 422,850 vehicles, a figure that would mark a 15% year-on-year decline. That estimate sits below Bloomberg’s broader consensus of around 445,000 units, which implies a milder 1 ...