Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Market Cap**: US$44.798 billion - **Current Share Price**: HK$259.60 (as of October 10, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$382.00 - **52-Week Range**: HK$339.80 - HK$57.00 - **Shares Outstanding**: 1,343 million - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$257 million Industry Context - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Dynamics**: The US is a significant market for IP products, where Pop Mart has strong consumer appeal and limited direct competition [3][7] Key Financial Insights - **Tariff Impact**: - Basic figures retailed at approximately US$17 before April 10, 2025, with new launches priced at US$19-20 [2] - Existing figures increased to US$19-20 in May-June 2025, anticipating a potential 50-55% tariff on toys from China [2] - Actual toy tariff has remained around 30% since May 2025, leading to an estimated US GPM of ~80% in 1H25 [2] - If tariffs remain unchanged, US GPM is expected to be higher in 2H25 [2] - A potential increase to ~130% tariff could lead to a price increase of ~US$4.5 for basic plush and ~US$3 for basic figures, maintaining GP/OP per unit [2] Strategic Insights - **Supply Chain Management**: - Pop Mart has effectively managed its supply chain and tariff mitigation strategies [3] - The company had plans to source a majority of US merchandise from Vietnam, which were postponed due to easing trade tensions [7] - It would take approximately 4-6 months to shift the supply chain if necessary, although efficiency in Vietnam would lag behind China [7] Earnings Projections - **Earnings Impact**: - In a scenario with a 130% tariff and no pricing adjustments, the estimated earnings impact for 2025 would be around 1% [7] Valuation and Growth Potential - **Valuation Methodology**: - Base case value is based on a target P/E of 42x for 2025, implying a PEG of ~1.6x on a 2025-27 EPS CAGR [8] - **Growth Drivers**: - Continued sales momentum in China and overseas markets, successful product line expansion, and new IP initiatives are expected to drive further re-rating [8] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster overseas growth, successful rollout of popular products, and retention of momentum in China [10] - **Downside Risks**: - Weak macro environment, uncertainties related to new products, and unsuccessful overseas expansion [10] Conclusion - Pop Mart International Group is positioned well within the consumer market, with effective management of tariff impacts and a strong growth outlook driven by product innovation and market expansion strategies. The company remains a top pick in the China/Hong Kong consumer sector, with a favorable valuation and growth potential despite potential risks associated with macroeconomic conditions and trade tensions.

Market Overview - The broader equity markets have shown a steady uptrend as investors remain optimistic despite tariff threats from President Trump on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea [1] - Investors are hopeful for a mutually beneficial solution to avoid market turmoil as they look forward to a busy earnings season [1][2] Trade Relations - Positive discussions between U.S.-China diplomats regarding trade tariffs and potential peace talks between U.S. officials and Iran have contributed to market stability [2] - Investors are awaiting clarity on interest rate cuts with inflation data expected to be released soon [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on "cash cow" stocks that provide higher returns, emphasizing the importance of attractive efficiency ratios like return on equity (ROE) [3] - High ROE indicates effective reinvestment of cash at a high rate of return, distinguishing profitable companies from less efficient ones [4][5] Stock Screening Parameters - Stocks are screened based on criteria including cash flow greater than $1 billion and ROE exceeding industry averages [6] - Additional metrics include Price/Cash Flow lower than industry average and Return on Assets (ROA) greater than industry average [7] Featured Stocks - **Walt Disney**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 11.8% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.4% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [8][9] - **TE Connectivity**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 9.8% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.3% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [10][11] - **Fortinet**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 13.4% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 23.8% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [12][13] - **Banco Bilbao**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 5.5% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.3% on average, Zacks Rank 1 [13][14] - **Colgate-Palmolive**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 5.2% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [14][15]

Group 1 - Zacks Premium offers tools for investors to enhance their stock market confidence and knowledge, including daily updates, research reports, and stock screens [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores provide a rating system for stocks based on value, growth, and momentum, helping investors identify securities likely to outperform the market [2][3] Group 2 - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios such as P/E and Price/Sales [3] - The Growth Score assesses a company's financial health and future outlook, analyzing projected earnings and sales for sustainable growth [4] - The Momentum Score identifies trends in stock prices and earnings estimates, aiding investors in timing their stock purchases [5] Group 3 - The VGM Score combines the three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive rating that highlights stocks with attractive value, growth potential, and positive momentum [6] - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios [7][8] Group 4 - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically produced an average annual return of +23.62% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] - To maximize returns, investors should focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B [9][10] Group 5 - Walt Disney Company reported revenues of $91.4 billion in fiscal 2024 and holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) with a VGM Score of B [11] - Disney's Growth Style Score of B indicates a forecasted year-over-year earnings growth of 16.3% for the current fiscal year [11] - Recent analyst revisions have increased Disney's earnings estimate for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising to $5.78 per share [12]

Core Insights - The Zacks Focus List is a curated portfolio of 50 stocks aimed at long-term investors, expected to outperform the market over the next 12 months [3][5] - The Focus List has demonstrated strong past performance, with a cumulative return of 2,519.23% from February 1, 1996, to March 31, 2021, compared to the S&P 500's return of 854.95% [5] - The methodology for selecting stocks in the Focus List relies heavily on earnings estimate revisions, which are critical for predicting future growth and profitability [6][7] Focus List Performance - In 2020, the Focus List gained 13.85% on an annualized basis, outperforming the S&P 500's return of 9.38% [5] - The portfolio's historical performance reinforces its value as a starting point for investors [5] Stock Selection Methodology - Stocks are chosen based on the Zacks Rank, which utilizes earnings estimate revisions to identify potential winners [8][9] - The Zacks Rank is based on four main factors: Agreement, Magnitude, Upside, and Surprise, which are recalculated nightly [9] Case Study: Walt Disney Company - Walt Disney Company reported revenues of $91.4 billion in fiscal 2024 and was added to the Focus List at $85.98 per share, with shares increasing by 29.25% to $111.13 since then [11] - Eight analysts have revised Disney's earnings estimate higher for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.24 to $5.72, and an average earnings surprise of 16.4% [12]

Market Overview - Stock markets are experiencing significant volatility due to the ongoing tariff war, leading to expectations of economic slowdown and rising inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% amid these uncertainties [1] Broker Recommendations - Following brokers' recommendations can simplify stock selection; stocks like Walt Disney Company (DIS), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), and Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) are highlighted as worth buying [2] - Brokers have insights from direct communication with top management and assess publicly available documents, providing a better understanding of company fundamentals and sector performance [3] Stock Selection Strategy - A screening strategy for potential winners includes: - Broker rating upgrades of 1% or more over the last four weeks [5] - Current stock price greater than $5 [5] - Average 20-day trading volume greater than 100,000 [5] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) have a proven record of success, especially when combined with a VGM Score of A or B [6] Company Highlights - **Walt Disney Company (DIS)**: - Expected fiscal 2025 earnings growth of 13.3% year-over-year - Currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 with a 3.5% upward revision in broker ratings over the past four weeks [7] - **Cognizant Technology (CTSH)**: - Projected 2025 earnings growth of 6.5% year-over-year - Currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 with a 4.4% upward revision in broker ratings over the past four weeks [8] - **Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)**: - Expected 2025 earnings growth of 444.7% year-over-year - Currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 with a 7.7% upward revision in broker ratings over the past four weeks [10]

Group 1 - The article expresses a personal fondness for theme parks, particularly those owned by The Walt Disney Company, highlighting the emotional connection and memorable experiences associated with them [1] Group 2 - Crude Value Insights provides an investment service focused on the oil and natural gas sector, emphasizing cash flow and the potential for value and growth in companies that generate it [1] - Subscribers to Crude Value Insights gain access to a stock model account with over 50 stocks, detailed cash flow analyses of exploration and production firms, and live discussions about the sector [2] - A promotional offer is available for a two-week free trial to attract new subscribers to the oil and gas investment service [3]