Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) just made a bold play that changes the trading platform game. The crypto exchange announced Wednesday at its System Update event in San Francisco that it’s launching traditional stock trading, complete with 24 hour access five days a week and zero commissions. Translation? Coinbase wants to be your one stop shop for everything from Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares.But here’s the real question: Can a crypto focused platform actually compete with Robi ...

The money has to come from somewhere. And when it comes to prediction markets, that could be an issue for Coinbase relative to competitors, according to a survey detailed in a Tuesday note from Mizuho Securities. After fielding responses from more than 230 Coinbase and Robinhood users, analysts at the investment banking firm found that 50% of the retail brokerage’s customers plan to fund prediction market wagers with fresh cash, compared to 37% at the crypto exchange. Although 37% of surveyed users indicat ...

Core Insights - Coinbase is set to launch a prediction market and tokenized equities on December 17, marking a significant expansion into new financial products [1] - The prediction market sector is experiencing increased adoption, with trading volume reaching $28 billion year-to-date through October, and studies indicating these markets outperform traditional polling by approximately 30% [2] - The U.S. predictive analytics industry is valued at around $14 billion and is projected to grow to $32.85 billion by 2030 [2] Industry Developments - Competitors like Gemini and Crypto.com are also enhancing their offerings in the prediction market space, with Gemini receiving approval to introduce its own prediction markets [3] - The leading platform Polymarket was previously forced out of the market in 2022 but has been approved to return following the acquisition of a regulated exchange [4] - State regulators are increasingly scrutinizing prediction markets, with the Washington State Gambling Commission recently declaring them an "unauthorized activity" [5] Regulatory Environment - Federal lawmakers are targeting political betting, a popular segment within prediction markets, with proposed legislation like the Ban Gambling on Elections Act introduced amid significant wagering on the 2024 election [6] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for corruption and the undermining of democratic processes due to election betting, with some countries already prohibiting such activities [7] - Polymarket has faced allegations of inflated trading volumes due to wash trading, with estimates suggesting that up to 25% of trades may be artificial [7]

Core Insights - Coinbase Global Inc. is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized equities, indicating a strategic move to diversify its offerings amid a challenging trading environment [1][2] - The company is developing these features in-house, without external partnerships, and has teased a livestream event for users [2] - The prediction markets segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with other platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket seeing significant growth in trading volumes [3][4] Company Developments - Coinbase is reportedly working on its tokenized equities offering internally, which suggests a focus on enhancing its product suite without relying on third-party collaborations [2] - Screenshots of early versions of the new features have circulated, generating anticipation ahead of the planned livestream [2] Industry Trends - The cryptocurrency trading landscape is evolving, with exchanges like Gemini and Crypto.com also expanding into prediction markets and event-based contracts [4][5] - The push into new revenue streams reflects a broader trend of exchanges seeking to adapt to fee compression and increased regulatory scrutiny [5] Stock Performance - Coinbase's stock (COIN) closed down 2.21% at $269, with a slight premarket bounce of about 0.5% [9] - The stock is attempting to stabilize above the $264 support level, which has been tested multiple times [10] - Despite some support, the overall market structure remains bearish, with COIN trading below key moving averages [11][12] Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for COIN are identified at $275.88 and a breakout zone between $292 and $303, with Fibonacci targets above that range at $284, $301, and $318 [14][15] - Momentum indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment, with the RSI around 44, indicating a slight bearish tilt [16] - A sustained move above $275 would signal a potential shift in buyer control, while a break above $292 is necessary to challenge the prevailing downtrend [18][19]

Core Insights - Tokenization is emerging as a significant trend in the crypto space, acting as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized finance [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted both the opportunities and risks associated with tokenized assets [5] Group 1: Definition and Process of Tokenization - Tokenization involves converting real-world assets like cash, treasuries, or equities into blockchain-based tokens that can be globally transferred and settled instantly [2] - The tokenization process consists of three steps: immobilizing the underlying asset with a custodian, issuing a smart contract-driven token on a blockchain, and allowing the token to circulate freely while maintaining digital claims on the reserve [3] Group 2: Benefits of Tokenization - Tokenized assets can potentially make markets faster and cheaper by minimizing the need for intermediaries such as clearinghouses and registrars [5] - Early research indicates significant cost savings in tokenized financial markets, with programmable settlement rails enabling near-instant clearing and more efficient collateral use [6] Group 3: Risks Associated with Tokenization - The IMF warns that the speed and automation of tokenized platforms may increase volatility, potentially leading to market instability [6] - Automated trading systems have previously caused sudden market declines, known as flash crashes, suggesting that tokenized platforms could be more volatile than traditional trading systems [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, revenues doubled year-over-year to nearly $1.3 billion, marking a record high [10][12] - Year-to-date revenues increased by 65%, and earnings per share rose by 150% [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA margins reached 75%, indicating strong profitability [12] - Record net deposits exceeded $20 billion in the quarter, surpassing last year's total of $50 billion with another quarter remaining [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trading volumes for equities, options, and crypto saw double to triple-digit growth [13] - Prediction Markets achieved over $100 million in annualized revenue within a year, tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes [12][13] - Robinhood Gold subscribers increased to a record 3.9 million, representing over 75% year-over-year growth [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International customer base grew to nearly 700,000 funded accounts, with significant growth in the U.K. and EU markets [11] - Assets under management reached over $300 billion, benefiting from a generational wealth transfer of $120 trillion [7][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a global financial ecosystem, targeting over half of its revenue from non-U.S. markets in the next decade [8][9] - Focus on expanding product offerings, including Robinhood Banking and Prediction Markets, to enhance customer engagement and wallet share [7][8] - Plans to leverage tokenization and private market access through Robinhood Ventures to tap into new growth opportunities [9][48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing product velocity and customer engagement, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 [11][18] - The company is actively monitoring regulatory developments and is prepared to adapt its strategies accordingly [2] - Management highlighted the importance of building resilience in their platform following recent outages, emphasizing ongoing improvements [25][26] Other Important Information - The CFO announced plans to retire, with Shiv Verma set to take over the role, ensuring continuity in leadership [18][20] - The company is focusing on enhancing its user experience and product discoverability, particularly in the Prediction Markets segment [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: How quickly do you expect to roll out Robinhood Banking to users? - The rollout will be relatively fast, governed by customer feedback, with early results being positive [24] Question: How are you strengthening platform resiliency after the recent AWS-related outage? - Significant progress has been made in system resilience, allowing many customers to manage risk despite performance degradation [25][26] Question: How do you see the evolution of Robinhood as a super app for the next generation? - The goal is to be the primary financial account for customers, minimizing reasons for withdrawals and expanding product offerings [30] Question: What is the strategy for maintaining leadership in Prediction Markets amidst new entrants? - The company leverages its existing customer base and distribution advantages to maintain a competitive edge [33][34] Question: Can you discuss the demand for private markets and plans for Robinhood Ventures? - There is significant customer demand for access to private markets, and the company is working on innovative solutions to meet this need [46][49] Question: When do you expect tokenized equities to scale, and what implications might they have for revenue? - The company is ramping up the number of tokens available and anticipates greater interoperability in the future [52][70]

Product Offering - Offers seamless access to tokenized equities, enabling instant swaps between crypto, memecoins, stable coins, and xStocks like TSLAx and AAPLx [1] Regulatory and Geographic Restrictions - Service is not available in the U S or to U S persons, and geo restrictions apply [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Lithuania has reached out to Robinhood for clarifications regarding its tokenized equities after concerns were raised by OpenAI [1][2] - The central bank is awaiting information to assess the legality and compliance of Robinhood's stock tokens, emphasizing the need for clear and non-misleading communication to investors [2] - Robinhood holds a brokerage license and a crypto asset service provider license from the Bank of Lithuania, which serves as its lead regulator in the European Union [2]